This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2013/apr/05/grand-national-aintree-unpredictability-heartbeat

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Grand National's unpredictability is its heartbeat Grand National's unpredictability is its heartbeat
(6 months later)
No one knows what will happen when the field sets off for the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday afternoon. That is the whole point. The punters have no idea, and neither do those who stage and profit from the race: Aintree racecourse and, ultimately, the British Horseracing Authority. The masters of the most unpredictable race of the year are also slaves to the blind chance that defines it.No one knows what will happen when the field sets off for the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday afternoon. That is the whole point. The punters have no idea, and neither do those who stage and profit from the race: Aintree racecourse and, ultimately, the British Horseracing Authority. The masters of the most unpredictable race of the year are also slaves to the blind chance that defines it.
The track and those who manage the sport as a whole are under unprecedented pressure on welfare issues this year. Two horses suffered fatal injuries in the 2011 and 2012 Grand Nationals, and two more have died on the National course this week. The first death, from a heart attack, had nothing to do with a fall and could have happened anywhere. The second, though, came after a fall at the 15th fence in which Little Josh, normally a strong, bold jumper and former winner over the big fences, broke his shoulder.The track and those who manage the sport as a whole are under unprecedented pressure on welfare issues this year. Two horses suffered fatal injuries in the 2011 and 2012 Grand Nationals, and two more have died on the National course this week. The first death, from a heart attack, had nothing to do with a fall and could have happened anywhere. The second, though, came after a fall at the 15th fence in which Little Josh, normally a strong, bold jumper and former winner over the big fences, broke his shoulder.
This is why so many of those who love racing and the National will watch with as much apprehension as anticipation this afternoon as the 40 runners set off around one of the world's most famous sporting venues.This is why so many of those who love racing and the National will watch with as much apprehension as anticipation this afternoon as the 40 runners set off around one of the world's most famous sporting venues.
No one wants to see a horse or horses die, though everyone knows the risk exists. We think, and hope, that an injury-free National is the most likely result, and that the past two years have been a sad aberration. But we know too that three years in a row with a fatal injury to a runner will seem to some, perhaps many, of those who tune in to racing on just this one day alone like too much of a coincidence.No one wants to see a horse or horses die, though everyone knows the risk exists. We think, and hope, that an injury-free National is the most likely result, and that the past two years have been a sad aberration. But we know too that three years in a row with a fatal injury to a runner will seem to some, perhaps many, of those who tune in to racing on just this one day alone like too much of a coincidence.
"It's naive to think there is no risk with any type of horse," said Donald McCain, whose late father, Ginger, trained Red Rum and became a National winner himself with Ballabriggs in 2011. "We keep them to the best of our ability, we dote on them in everything we do, and the safest place for a thoroughbred racehorse is in my stable, not in a field somewhere in the cold and wet."It's naive to think there is no risk with any type of horse," said Donald McCain, whose late father, Ginger, trained Red Rum and became a National winner himself with Ballabriggs in 2011. "We keep them to the best of our ability, we dote on them in everything we do, and the safest place for a thoroughbred racehorse is in my stable, not in a field somewhere in the cold and wet.
"Some horses thrive on coming to these days. There are no more accidents in the National than in many other disciplines involving horses, it's just more high‑profile. It's the greatest test of a horse on the planet.""Some horses thrive on coming to these days. There are no more accidents in the National than in many other disciplines involving horses, it's just more high‑profile. It's the greatest test of a horse on the planet."
There have been changes to the course, significant ones, since last year, as there have been throughout the history of the National. The cores of the fences are softer and most are made of plastic rather than wood. In the Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday, one loose horse was splashing through the fences just over halfway up, sending spruce flying. Compare that to the early years in the mid-1800s, when the obstacles included a stone wall.There have been changes to the course, significant ones, since last year, as there have been throughout the history of the National. The cores of the fences are softer and most are made of plastic rather than wood. In the Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday, one loose horse was splashing through the fences just over halfway up, sending spruce flying. Compare that to the early years in the mid-1800s, when the obstacles included a stone wall.
For the first time, this year's National will also be run over less than the classic trip of four and a half miles. The start has been moved closer to the first fence in an attempt to ease the pressure-cooker atmosphere in front of the big crowds at the old location and reduce the speed of the familiar pell-mell dash across the Melling Road.For the first time, this year's National will also be run over less than the classic trip of four and a half miles. The start has been moved closer to the first fence in an attempt to ease the pressure-cooker atmosphere in front of the big crowds at the old location and reduce the speed of the familiar pell-mell dash across the Melling Road.
Whether this will work is, like so much else, unknowable until the race starts. One former jockey said this week: "The problem is that there are 40 horses and at least 30 of the jockeys will have been told to be in the first 10 at the first. So how can you change that?"Whether this will work is, like so much else, unknowable until the race starts. One former jockey said this week: "The problem is that there are 40 horses and at least 30 of the jockeys will have been told to be in the first 10 at the first. So how can you change that?"
John Baker, in his first year as the senior executive at Aintree, will consider this and other questions. "Let's see what happens with the new fences," Baker said on Friday. "[In the Fox Hunters' Chase] I thought there were real signs that the horses were picking their legs up and jumping them properly. We didn't see any of the tipping, somersault-type falls we've had in the Grand National before. I feel we've done as much as we possibly can to make it as safe as we possibly can. But it's a challenge, like it should be. People who love horses see that and appreciate that, the breed is bred to race.John Baker, in his first year as the senior executive at Aintree, will consider this and other questions. "Let's see what happens with the new fences," Baker said on Friday. "[In the Fox Hunters' Chase] I thought there were real signs that the horses were picking their legs up and jumping them properly. We didn't see any of the tipping, somersault-type falls we've had in the Grand National before. I feel we've done as much as we possibly can to make it as safe as we possibly can. But it's a challenge, like it should be. People who love horses see that and appreciate that, the breed is bred to race.
"The decade from 2001 was the safest in history for National casualties. The last two years have put the microscope on us again. But last year, the two deaths were complete accidents. You could not legislate for it, it was just damn bad luck.""The decade from 2001 was the safest in history for National casualties. The last two years have put the microscope on us again. But last year, the two deaths were complete accidents. You could not legislate for it, it was just damn bad luck."
There will no doubt be other events that you cannot legislate for which Baker will be considering this evening. The RSPCA too has been adopting a cautious brief this week. "It would be so wrong to jump to conclusions after one race," said David Muir, the charity's equine consultant, after the death of a horse from a heart attack during the Fox Hunters' Chase. "At the end of the three days, let's think about it and see if the improvements have been effective."There will no doubt be other events that you cannot legislate for which Baker will be considering this evening. The RSPCA too has been adopting a cautious brief this week. "It would be so wrong to jump to conclusions after one race," said David Muir, the charity's equine consultant, after the death of a horse from a heart attack during the Fox Hunters' Chase. "At the end of the three days, let's think about it and see if the improvements have been effective."
Unpredictability is the very heartbeat of the National. It was not designed as a championship event, with horses running at level weights. It was conceived by the owner of a local hotel, to attract spectators, and potential guests, to watch an unrivalled spectacle, rich with excitement and uncertainty.Unpredictability is the very heartbeat of the National. It was not designed as a championship event, with horses running at level weights. It was conceived by the owner of a local hotel, to attract spectators, and potential guests, to watch an unrivalled spectacle, rich with excitement and uncertainty.
The crowd that turned up for the first National had no idea what to expect. The reason for its enduring appeal and immense global audience is that, nearly two centuries later, we still don't.The crowd that turned up for the first National had no idea what to expect. The reason for its enduring appeal and immense global audience is that, nearly two centuries later, we still don't.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning.