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| Venezuela elections: Chávez ghost looms large over Maduro campaign | Venezuela elections: Chávez ghost looms large over Maduro campaign |
| (30 days later) | |
| The rallies are getting bigger and the accusations are growing wilder, but in Venezuela's presidential poll this Sunday, the voters' choice of a successor to Hugo Chávez looks set to be just as strongly influenced by a political ghost and a campaign machine. | The rallies are getting bigger and the accusations are growing wilder, but in Venezuela's presidential poll this Sunday, the voters' choice of a successor to Hugo Chávez looks set to be just as strongly influenced by a political ghost and a campaign machine. |
| Polls suggest Chávez's political heir, Nicolás Maduro, is on course for a double-digit victory that would keep the ruling party in control of the world's biggest oil reserves and a country of 29 million people. | Polls suggest Chávez's political heir, Nicolás Maduro, is on course for a double-digit victory that would keep the ruling party in control of the world's biggest oil reserves and a country of 29 million people. |
| The Datanalisis research firm puts the former union negotiator 17 percentage points ahead of his rival, Henrique Capriles. Others suggest the margin could be more than 20 points. | The Datanalisis research firm puts the former union negotiator 17 percentage points ahead of his rival, Henrique Capriles. Others suggest the margin could be more than 20 points. |
| Despite a rally of more than 100,000 Capriles supporters in Caracas on Sunday, allegations of campaign impropriety and increasingly strange conspiracy theories, the momentum has remained firmly with Maduro. | Despite a rally of more than 100,000 Capriles supporters in Caracas on Sunday, allegations of campaign impropriety and increasingly strange conspiracy theories, the momentum has remained firmly with Maduro. |
| As well as promising a continuation of popular wealth redistribution policies, the burly frontrunner has capitalised on an emotional bond with his predecessor. | As well as promising a continuation of popular wealth redistribution policies, the burly frontrunner has capitalised on an emotional bond with his predecessor. |
| Maduro's campaign slogans – "We are all Chávez" and "With Chávez and Maduro, the people are safe" – underpin the close connection that the trade union negotiator is emphasising between himself and the deceased leader. During rallies, Maduro has described Chávez as "my father" and played video recordings of the former president endorsing him as successor. | Maduro's campaign slogans – "We are all Chávez" and "With Chávez and Maduro, the people are safe" – underpin the close connection that the trade union negotiator is emphasising between himself and the deceased leader. During rallies, Maduro has described Chávez as "my father" and played video recordings of the former president endorsing him as successor. |
| At times, the claimed link has slipped into the supernatural. Maduro has said Chávez appeared to him as a bird that circled three times and whistled a blessing for the presidential campaign. | At times, the claimed link has slipped into the supernatural. Maduro has said Chávez appeared to him as a bird that circled three times and whistled a blessing for the presidential campaign. |
| A pseudo-religious air is also apparent at a shrine and museum dedicated to Chávez in the 23rd of January barrio, where pictures of the dead president sit beside images and statues of Jesus Christ with a crucifix. Maduro has also announced that Chávez's former office in the presidential palace, Miraflores, will be turned into a museum. | A pseudo-religious air is also apparent at a shrine and museum dedicated to Chávez in the 23rd of January barrio, where pictures of the dead president sit beside images and statues of Jesus Christ with a crucifix. Maduro has also announced that Chávez's former office in the presidential palace, Miraflores, will be turned into a museum. |
| Analysts say Maduro has to resort to such tactics to channel Chávez's popularity and influence because he does not have the same visibility or charm. | Analysts say Maduro has to resort to such tactics to channel Chávez's popularity and influence because he does not have the same visibility or charm. |
| "Maduro was hardly known to Venezuelans even last year. His intrinsic value was low and he wasn't seen as a leader. His possibility of winning is tied to him being viewed as a vehicle for Chávez. People are not voting for him per se, but for Chávez through him," said Luis Vicente Leon, director of Datanalisis. | "Maduro was hardly known to Venezuelans even last year. His intrinsic value was low and he wasn't seen as a leader. His possibility of winning is tied to him being viewed as a vehicle for Chávez. People are not voting for him per se, but for Chávez through him," said Luis Vicente Leon, director of Datanalisis. |
| Previously minister of foreign affairs, Maduro was made vice-president by Chávez shortly after winning the October presidential election and stepped up to become acting president, days after Chávez's death. | Previously minister of foreign affairs, Maduro was made vice-president by Chávez shortly after winning the October presidential election and stepped up to become acting president, days after Chávez's death. |
| Maduro claims to be a reluctant leader whose only ambition was to serve Chávez, and to honour a dying wish that he consolidate Chávez's Bolivarian socialism. | Maduro claims to be a reluctant leader whose only ambition was to serve Chávez, and to honour a dying wish that he consolidate Chávez's Bolivarian socialism. |
| While this has gone down well with the many who benefited from Chávez's wealth-distribution policies, the downside is an absence of policy initiatives to address chronic problems such as crime, inflation and an overreliance on oil exports. | While this has gone down well with the many who benefited from Chávez's wealth-distribution policies, the downside is an absence of policy initiatives to address chronic problems such as crime, inflation and an overreliance on oil exports. |
| "There is nothing inherently flawed with campaigning on a platform of continuity. Most candidates from ruling parties do. However, typically, these ruling party candidates also use the opportunity of a new election to promise some innovations and deviations from how things were being done thus far. Maduro is completely rejecting this strategy of 'brand improvement'," says Javier Corrales, professor of Latin American Studies in Amherst College. "He is promising continuismo, not just symbolically, but also, literally." | "There is nothing inherently flawed with campaigning on a platform of continuity. Most candidates from ruling parties do. However, typically, these ruling party candidates also use the opportunity of a new election to promise some innovations and deviations from how things were being done thus far. Maduro is completely rejecting this strategy of 'brand improvement'," says Javier Corrales, professor of Latin American Studies in Amherst College. "He is promising continuismo, not just symbolically, but also, literally." |
| Maduro also needs the powerful campaigning tools that Chávez used and, according to his opponents, abused: an unbalanced amount of airtime on the public broadcast channels, extensive use of state funds and resources such as the presidential jet, and the bussing in of government employees for rallies. | Maduro also needs the powerful campaigning tools that Chávez used and, according to his opponents, abused: an unbalanced amount of airtime on the public broadcast channels, extensive use of state funds and resources such as the presidential jet, and the bussing in of government employees for rallies. |
| Unable to fight the ghost, Capriles, who lost against Chávez in last year's presidential election, has focused his attention on the campaign machine and signs of irregularities, such as recent revelations that a militant member of the government's party, the PSUV, had a secret code for the voting machines. | Unable to fight the ghost, Capriles, who lost against Chávez in last year's presidential election, has focused his attention on the campaign machine and signs of irregularities, such as recent revelations that a militant member of the government's party, the PSUV, had a secret code for the voting machines. |
| "I tolerated many abuses during the previous presidential campaign because I thought it was counterproductive to focus on that. Today, I feel it is imperative to break with the constant abuse of power that has sequestered all institutions in the country," Capriles told the Guardian. "PDVSA (the state-run oil giant) is the great financier of the campaign. You have all of the state's structures as well as all the TV and radio stations at the service of the state," he added. | "I tolerated many abuses during the previous presidential campaign because I thought it was counterproductive to focus on that. Today, I feel it is imperative to break with the constant abuse of power that has sequestered all institutions in the country," Capriles told the Guardian. "PDVSA (the state-run oil giant) is the great financier of the campaign. You have all of the state's structures as well as all the TV and radio stations at the service of the state," he added. |
| Similar concerns have been echoed by overseas observers. "The technical aspects of the process has always been handled really well. At the same time, the (electoral process) has had problems with how unequal campaigns are and the use of the resources and the media," Jennifer McCoy, director of the Carter Centre told CNN. | Similar concerns have been echoed by overseas observers. "The technical aspects of the process has always been handled really well. At the same time, the (electoral process) has had problems with how unequal campaigns are and the use of the resources and the media," Jennifer McCoy, director of the Carter Centre told CNN. |
| Discussion of policy has largely taken a backseat to name-calling and conspiracy theories. Maduro has stated that mercenaries hired by the US and rightwing extremists in El Salvador had entered Venezuela to assassinate him and disrupt the electricity grid. | Discussion of policy has largely taken a backseat to name-calling and conspiracy theories. Maduro has stated that mercenaries hired by the US and rightwing extremists in El Salvador had entered Venezuela to assassinate him and disrupt the electricity grid. |
| Earlier he said the CIA were plotting to kill Capriles and blame it on the ruling party. He has also ordered an investigation into the possibility that the cancer that killed Chávez was introduced by US agents. | Earlier he said the CIA were plotting to kill Capriles and blame it on the ruling party. He has also ordered an investigation into the possibility that the cancer that killed Chávez was introduced by US agents. |
| The opposition has, in turn, mocked Maduro as a bus driver (his old job) and a plantain eater (a bumbling oaf). The ruling party candidate has embraced these monikers with a humour that suggests he may show more of his own style if he wins on Sunday. | The opposition has, in turn, mocked Maduro as a bus driver (his old job) and a plantain eater (a bumbling oaf). The ruling party candidate has embraced these monikers with a humour that suggests he may show more of his own style if he wins on Sunday. |
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