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| Nicolás Maduro: how can he build on the Chávez legacy | Nicolás Maduro: how can he build on the Chávez legacy |
| (25 days later) | |
| Hugo Chávez, one of the most outspoken South American leaders of the past century, was never going to be an easy act to follow. But Sunday's narrow and contested vote has just made it even tougher for his newly elected successor, Nicolás Maduro. | Hugo Chávez, one of the most outspoken South American leaders of the past century, was never going to be an easy act to follow. But Sunday's narrow and contested vote has just made it even tougher for his newly elected successor, Nicolás Maduro. |
| After the closest presidential race in Venezuela's recent history, Maduro has the smallest of mandates to deal with the huge challenges of ruling the country, maintaining the unity of the ruling coalition and tackling a host of chronic problems ranging from power cuts and food shortages to inflation and one of the highest murder rates in the world. | After the closest presidential race in Venezuela's recent history, Maduro has the smallest of mandates to deal with the huge challenges of ruling the country, maintaining the unity of the ruling coalition and tackling a host of chronic problems ranging from power cuts and food shortages to inflation and one of the highest murder rates in the world. |
| Having shed more than half a million votes for the ruling party compared with Chávez re-election last October, Maduro will now have to tread even more carefully in balancing the political and social revolution demanded by his supporters with the economic adjustments needed to avoid further alienation of the wider electorate. Or to put it another way, to what extent should he be an echo of Chávez? | Having shed more than half a million votes for the ruling party compared with Chávez re-election last October, Maduro will now have to tread even more carefully in balancing the political and social revolution demanded by his supporters with the economic adjustments needed to avoid further alienation of the wider electorate. Or to put it another way, to what extent should he be an echo of Chávez? |
| A low-key figure until this year, Maduro campaigned on his proximity to the charismatic leader who hand picked him as his successor. By one count, he has publicly invoked his predecessor's name more than 7,000 times in the past month and a half, repeatedly declaring "We are all Chávez". But this result has underscored another oft-heard refrain in Venezuela: Maduro is no Chávez. | A low-key figure until this year, Maduro campaigned on his proximity to the charismatic leader who hand picked him as his successor. By one count, he has publicly invoked his predecessor's name more than 7,000 times in the past month and a half, repeatedly declaring "We are all Chávez". But this result has underscored another oft-heard refrain in Venezuela: Maduro is no Chávez. |
| Riding a wave of public sympathy after the death of Chávez and bolstered by his status as the dead leader's chosen heir, Maduro looked set to be coasting to victory up until a week before the election, with most polls forecasting he would win by at least 14 percentage points. | Riding a wave of public sympathy after the death of Chávez and bolstered by his status as the dead leader's chosen heir, Maduro looked set to be coasting to victory up until a week before the election, with most polls forecasting he would win by at least 14 percentage points. |
| Instead he scraped into power by a margin of less than two against a rival – Henrique Capriles – that Chavez had soundly beaten by double-digits just six months ago. Ruling party politicians will want to know what turned 680,000 votes off their revolutionary message and on to the pro-business platform of a member of Venezuela's privileged elite. | Instead he scraped into power by a margin of less than two against a rival – Henrique Capriles – that Chavez had soundly beaten by double-digits just six months ago. Ruling party politicians will want to know what turned 680,000 votes off their revolutionary message and on to the pro-business platform of a member of Venezuela's privileged elite. |
| Diosdado Cabello, the most likely rival to Maduro within the Chávismo movement, said the party needed a period of reflection. | Diosdado Cabello, the most likely rival to Maduro within the Chávismo movement, said the party needed a period of reflection. |
| "These results require deep self-criticism," tweeted the powerful head of the country's national assembly who has close ties to the military. "Let's turn over every stone to find our faults, but we cannot put the fatherland or the legacy of our commander [Chávez] in danger." | "These results require deep self-criticism," tweeted the powerful head of the country's national assembly who has close ties to the military. "Let's turn over every stone to find our faults, but we cannot put the fatherland or the legacy of our commander [Chávez] in danger." |
| Nicmer Evans, a left-leaning analyst, wrote an open letter to Maduro, calling on him to be more inclusive and true to socialist ideals. Referring to a 10-day campaign in which Maduro often performed Chávez-like stunts, Evans said there was no need to be a cheap imitator. | Nicmer Evans, a left-leaning analyst, wrote an open letter to Maduro, calling on him to be more inclusive and true to socialist ideals. Referring to a 10-day campaign in which Maduro often performed Chávez-like stunts, Evans said there was no need to be a cheap imitator. |
| "I don't think a dance is necessary, though it might be amusing. I don't think a Maduro doll is needed, though it might be funny. I don't think a whistle is necessary, though it might sound good … What we need is that you surround yourself and include more people, more workers, more indigenous peoples, more women, more artists". | "I don't think a dance is necessary, though it might be amusing. I don't think a Maduro doll is needed, though it might be funny. I don't think a whistle is necessary, though it might sound good … What we need is that you surround yourself and include more people, more workers, more indigenous peoples, more women, more artists". |
| Maduro must now decide whether to recallibrate his message of continuity or whether to make changes. Political circumstances point strongly to the former. The ruling coalition represents a diverse group of interests that were brought together by Chávez. A majority of voters have approved continuation of the wealth redistribution policies that successfully raised education levels while reducing poverty and unemployment rates. Any shift from this path of "Bolívarian socialism" and there is a danger that this support could fragment. | Maduro must now decide whether to recallibrate his message of continuity or whether to make changes. Political circumstances point strongly to the former. The ruling coalition represents a diverse group of interests that were brought together by Chávez. A majority of voters have approved continuation of the wealth redistribution policies that successfully raised education levels while reducing poverty and unemployment rates. Any shift from this path of "Bolívarian socialism" and there is a danger that this support could fragment. |
| But maintaining the current course will also be tough. Even under Chávez, the policies of Chávismo were showing their limitations in terms of crumbling infrastructure, exchange rate distortions and an over-reliance on oil. | But maintaining the current course will also be tough. Even under Chávez, the policies of Chávismo were showing their limitations in terms of crumbling infrastructure, exchange rate distortions and an over-reliance on oil. |
| Before Sunday's result, there were indications that Maduro may have been willing to take a less confrontational approach to the United States. Bill Richardson, a former governor of New Mexico who was in Caracas as a representative of the Organisation of American States, said he had been approached by Maduro on Sunday. "He said, 'We want to improve the relationship with the US, regularise the relationship,'" Richardson told the New York Times. | Before Sunday's result, there were indications that Maduro may have been willing to take a less confrontational approach to the United States. Bill Richardson, a former governor of New Mexico who was in Caracas as a representative of the Organisation of American States, said he had been approached by Maduro on Sunday. "He said, 'We want to improve the relationship with the US, regularise the relationship,'" Richardson told the New York Times. |
| US analysts said the narrow margin may make it difficult for Maduro to reach out. | US analysts said the narrow margin may make it difficult for Maduro to reach out. |
| "It complicates his life immensely," said Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue thinktank in Washington, said the narrow margin. | "It complicates his life immensely," said Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue thinktank in Washington, said the narrow margin. |
| "He needs a more pragmatic approach to deal with the economic problems. He must be in conversation with the business community. But if he feels unsure of his support within Chávismo, he'll have to continue to appeal to them. This is a difficult choice, a Hobson's choice. Both ends are wrong." | "He needs a more pragmatic approach to deal with the economic problems. He must be in conversation with the business community. But if he feels unsure of his support within Chávismo, he'll have to continue to appeal to them. This is a difficult choice, a Hobson's choice. Both ends are wrong." |
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