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Pervez Musharraf's doomed return Pervez Musharraf's doomed return
(5 months later)
It never looked like it was worth the trouble. After four years of self-imposed exile, Pervez Musharraf returned to Pakistan last month. Now the stakes have been raised even further, with the former president fleeing court after an order to arrest him. He had returned ostensibly in search of something. But what exactly?It never looked like it was worth the trouble. After four years of self-imposed exile, Pervez Musharraf returned to Pakistan last month. Now the stakes have been raised even further, with the former president fleeing court after an order to arrest him. He had returned ostensibly in search of something. But what exactly?
Since his humiliating ousting by the very politicians he spent nearly a decade trying to shut out of power, Musharraf had appeared desperate to return to, and lead, a country he believed would welcome him back with open arms. In fact, Pakistan has moved on from the Musharraf era, irrefutably and irrevocably.Since his humiliating ousting by the very politicians he spent nearly a decade trying to shut out of power, Musharraf had appeared desperate to return to, and lead, a country he believed would welcome him back with open arms. In fact, Pakistan has moved on from the Musharraf era, irrefutably and irrevocably.
Much as there is horror at the manner in which Asif Zardari's PPP has ruled over the past five years, and little genuine enthusiasm that the Nawaz Sharif-led PML-N could get a third stint in power, one thing is clear: the probability that Musharraf will be voted into power, or even that his party will have some presence in the next parliament, is exactly zero.Much as there is horror at the manner in which Asif Zardari's PPP has ruled over the past five years, and little genuine enthusiasm that the Nawaz Sharif-led PML-N could get a third stint in power, one thing is clear: the probability that Musharraf will be voted into power, or even that his party will have some presence in the next parliament, is exactly zero.
Musharraf is today politically what Imran Khan was in the mid-1990s, when the famous cricket-turned-philanthropist launched his own career in politics: a high-wattage name that grabs a disproportionate share of the media spotlight but has negligible traction with the voting public.Musharraf is today politically what Imran Khan was in the mid-1990s, when the famous cricket-turned-philanthropist launched his own career in politics: a high-wattage name that grabs a disproportionate share of the media spotlight but has negligible traction with the voting public.
Now that he has been barred from contesting the upcoming general election by a judiciary that has not forgotten Musharraf's attempt in 2007 to sack Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Musharraf still faces a sea of legal trouble, brought into sharp focus by Thursday's refusal to extend the bail granted to him last month.Now that he has been barred from contesting the upcoming general election by a judiciary that has not forgotten Musharraf's attempt in 2007 to sack Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Musharraf still faces a sea of legal trouble, brought into sharp focus by Thursday's refusal to extend the bail granted to him last month.
Musharraf may yet be able to return to life abroad – never has an army chief been tried or sent to prison before in a country where the military still wields enormous influence – but his political obituary has long been written.Musharraf may yet be able to return to life abroad – never has an army chief been tried or sent to prison before in a country where the military still wields enormous influence – but his political obituary has long been written.
What lies ahead for the country at large, though, is a world of uncertainty, and even fear. Uncertainty because the electorate is divided and none of the major parties are even aspiring to win a majority in parliament on May 11. Fear because the Pakistani Taliban are already delivering on their pledge to disrupt the elections by targeting secular politicians in the Pashtun-dominated province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the tribal areas, while separatist militants in Balochistan appear in no mood to allow elections in a province where the military and insurgents have been fighting for nearly a decade now.What lies ahead for the country at large, though, is a world of uncertainty, and even fear. Uncertainty because the electorate is divided and none of the major parties are even aspiring to win a majority in parliament on May 11. Fear because the Pakistani Taliban are already delivering on their pledge to disrupt the elections by targeting secular politicians in the Pashtun-dominated province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the tribal areas, while separatist militants in Balochistan appear in no mood to allow elections in a province where the military and insurgents have been fighting for nearly a decade now.
And this before the problems of an economy that is on the verge of being pushed into the embrace of the IMF yet again, faced by an energy crisis that has resulted in chronic blackouts and shortages of natural gas, a low-cost fuel used in homes and industry and even to power motor vehicles.And this before the problems of an economy that is on the verge of being pushed into the embrace of the IMF yet again, faced by an energy crisis that has resulted in chronic blackouts and shortages of natural gas, a low-cost fuel used in homes and industry and even to power motor vehicles.
The unprecedented competition for seats – there are 272 directly elected National Assembly seats at stake, with an additional 60 seats for women and 10 for non-Muslims allocated on the basis of a party's share in the directly elected seats – has made the electoral maths virtually impossible to predict.The unprecedented competition for seats – there are 272 directly elected National Assembly seats at stake, with an additional 60 seats for women and 10 for non-Muslims allocated on the basis of a party's share in the directly elected seats – has made the electoral maths virtually impossible to predict.
By most accounts, the PML-N could be the largest party in parliament come May 11, but will fall some way short of winning a majority. However, Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) is a wild card in Punjab, long a Sharif stronghold and home to 148 of the 272 directly elected National Assembly seats. The PTI has genuine support in the province but just how much of that will translate into votes and seats is difficult to predict in a country where polling is still rudimentary and voters are known not to make up their minds until a few days before an election.By most accounts, the PML-N could be the largest party in parliament come May 11, but will fall some way short of winning a majority. However, Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) is a wild card in Punjab, long a Sharif stronghold and home to 148 of the 272 directly elected National Assembly seats. The PTI has genuine support in the province but just how much of that will translate into votes and seats is difficult to predict in a country where polling is still rudimentary and voters are known not to make up their minds until a few days before an election.
Will the PTI's support translate into enough seats to give the party kingmaker status in the next parliament? Will it only manage to dent the PML-N enough to make coalition formation for Sharif that much more complicated? Or will it break enough of the PML-N's vote bank to allow the PPP to sneak back into power on the basis of Zardari's proven mastery of coalition politics?Will the PTI's support translate into enough seats to give the party kingmaker status in the next parliament? Will it only manage to dent the PML-N enough to make coalition formation for Sharif that much more complicated? Or will it break enough of the PML-N's vote bank to allow the PPP to sneak back into power on the basis of Zardari's proven mastery of coalition politics?
Privately, the PTI leadership admits the election will be a roll of the dice: "30 or 130" has almost become a PTI catchphrase, reflecting the party's all-or-nothing approach to the election and the fundamental uncertainty about how many seats it can win.Privately, the PTI leadership admits the election will be a roll of the dice: "30 or 130" has almost become a PTI catchphrase, reflecting the party's all-or-nothing approach to the election and the fundamental uncertainty about how many seats it can win.
For many reasons, good and bad, May 11 will be an election like no other in Pakistan's history.For many reasons, good and bad, May 11 will be an election like no other in Pakistan's history.
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