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| Syria crisis: live Q&A | Syria crisis: live Q&A |
| (4 months later) | |
| Two years after protestors first took to the streets calling for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to stand down, the country is now in the grips of the longest and bloodiest crisis of the Arab uprisings. | Two years after protestors first took to the streets calling for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to stand down, the country is now in the grips of the longest and bloodiest crisis of the Arab uprisings. |
| Fighting has drawn closer to the capital, Damascus, and last week there were reports that more than 300 were massacred in the outskirts of the city. | Fighting has drawn closer to the capital, Damascus, and last week there were reports that more than 300 were massacred in the outskirts of the city. |
| The Guardian's Middle East editor, Ian Black, recently spent a week reporting in Damascus, on a rare visit to a country where access for foreign journalists has been severely restricted. | The Guardian's Middle East editor, Ian Black, recently spent a week reporting in Damascus, on a rare visit to a country where access for foreign journalists has been severely restricted. |
| He found a city where security has become intensified and the sound of artillery shells has become the background noise to everyday life. | He found a city where security has become intensified and the sound of artillery shells has become the background noise to everyday life. |
| Are we drawing closer to some kind of definitive battle for Damascus? Two Christian bishops are still missing after they were kidnapped in Aleppo - what is happening to Syria's Christians? | Are we drawing closer to some kind of definitive battle for Damascus? Two Christian bishops are still missing after they were kidnapped in Aleppo - what is happening to Syria's Christians? |
| Ian Black answered questions on the Syria crisis in the comments section below this article A selection of the questions he received - and his responses - appear below. | Ian Black answered questions on the Syria crisis in the comments section below this article A selection of the questions he received - and his responses - appear below. |
| mattinbiglari asks | mattinbiglari asks |
| Do we know who was really behind the kidnapping of the two archbishops from Aleppo yet? Also have you spoken to many rebels about how they feel about Saudi and Qatari-funded elements within the FSA? | Do we know who was really behind the kidnapping of the two archbishops from Aleppo yet? Also have you spoken to many rebels about how they feel about Saudi and Qatari-funded elements within the FSA? |
| Ian Black responds | Ian Black responds |
| Not yet. Government and rebels accuse each other. Kidnapping bishops, several people have pointed out, would serve the regime's interests, | Not yet. Government and rebels accuse each other. Kidnapping bishops, several people have pointed out, would serve the regime's interests, |
| I was in Damascus on a government issued visa. Met people who support opposition. Secular types unhappy with Islamist influence but insist the uprising is non-sectarian and committed to freedom and democracy. Not met anyone who believes post-Assad Syria will be an Islamist state. | I was in Damascus on a government issued visa. Met people who support opposition. Secular types unhappy with Islamist influence but insist the uprising is non-sectarian and committed to freedom and democracy. Not met anyone who believes post-Assad Syria will be an Islamist state. |
| patalosas asks | patalosas asks |
| What is the mood like among regime loyalists you spoke to? Are they confident they can tough it out, or are they secretly planning to escape? | What is the mood like among regime loyalists you spoke to? Are they confident they can tough it out, or are they secretly planning to escape? |
| Ian Black responds | Ian Black responds |
| Regime loyalists seem fairly upbeat. They claim that the tide is turning in Assad's favour. They say the rebels are divided and dominated by jihadis and that these facts are now causing further disarray and confusion internationally. The vice foreign minister told me that there could be reform in Syria but only when hostilities stop. Assad would not step down. | Regime loyalists seem fairly upbeat. They claim that the tide is turning in Assad's favour. They say the rebels are divided and dominated by jihadis and that these facts are now causing further disarray and confusion internationally. The vice foreign minister told me that there could be reform in Syria but only when hostilities stop. Assad would not step down. |
| sjxt asks | sjxt asks |
| 1. Did you find anything that led you to suppose there is any real world prospect of this not being a fight to the bitter end, whether that leads to "victory" of one side or the other or simply total fragmentation? | 1. Did you find anything that led you to suppose there is any real world prospect of this not being a fight to the bitter end, whether that leads to "victory" of one side or the other or simply total fragmentation? |
| 2. Can the different Syrian communities ever find a way to live together again in the foreseeable future? Or was the Chechen jihadi commander in Aleppo quoted by Anthony Lloyd in the Times a few months back right: "Of course, it would be lovely when all this is over if the Syrians could live peacefully with one another. But with the nature of the fighting as it is now, that is very unlikely." | 2. Can the different Syrian communities ever find a way to live together again in the foreseeable future? Or was the Chechen jihadi commander in Aleppo quoted by Anthony Lloyd in the Times a few months back right: "Of course, it would be lovely when all this is over if the Syrians could live peacefully with one another. But with the nature of the fighting as it is now, that is very unlikely." |
| Ian Black responds | Ian Black responds |
| 1) I didn't find anyone who believes in the prospect of a negotiated end to the fighting. Even the government appears to be paying no more than lip service to the idea. | 1) I didn't find anyone who believes in the prospect of a negotiated end to the fighting. Even the government appears to be paying no more than lip service to the idea. |
| 2) Syrian friends tell me that the country will never be the same again. But opposition supporters insist that theirs is not a sectarian struggle and blame the government for portraying it as such and trying to turn it into one. | 2) Syrian friends tell me that the country will never be the same again. But opposition supporters insist that theirs is not a sectarian struggle and blame the government for portraying it as such and trying to turn it into one. |
| PeterSchmidt asks | PeterSchmidt asks |
| On the BBC's "World have your Say' I heard that more than 5 million Syrians have fled from rebel held areas, into the protection of Assad around Damascus. Have you managed to talk to any of them? | On the BBC's "World have your Say' I heard that more than 5 million Syrians have fled from rebel held areas, into the protection of Assad around Damascus. Have you managed to talk to any of them? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Standard figure is that about 3.8m Syrians are internally displaced. Plenty of people are critical of the rebels, especially about what happened in Aleppo. In Damascus there is a palpable fear of criticizing the government and a broad sense of weariness about a crisis which is destroying the country. | Standard figure is that about 3.8m Syrians are internally displaced. Plenty of people are critical of the rebels, especially about what happened in Aleppo. In Damascus there is a palpable fear of criticizing the government and a broad sense of weariness about a crisis which is destroying the country. |
| cardigansinbound asks | cardigansinbound asks |
| Are there still ongoing street protests? | Are there still ongoing street protests? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Occasional protests - flash demos are uploaded to YouTube. But there is very heavy security on streets. Many activists have gone abroad, are in prison or lying low | Occasional protests - flash demos are uploaded to YouTube. But there is very heavy security on streets. Many activists have gone abroad, are in prison or lying low |
| NegativeCamber asks | NegativeCamber asks |
| How was it working in Damascus in terms of freedom? Where you monitored or were your movements/communications restricted by the regime? | How was it working in Damascus in terms of freedom? Where you monitored or were your movements/communications restricted by the regime? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Very difficult to work there as a journalist. Ministry of Information very controlling; written permission and an officially approved escort required to do almost anything, Independent activity risky but still just about possible. Assume I was monitored. | Very difficult to work there as a journalist. Ministry of Information very controlling; written permission and an officially approved escort required to do almost anything, Independent activity risky but still just about possible. Assume I was monitored. |
| Very difficult to work there as a journalist. Ministry of Information very controlling; written permission and an officially approved escort required to do almost anything, Independent activity risky but still just about possible. Assume I was monitored. | Very difficult to work there as a journalist. Ministry of Information very controlling; written permission and an officially approved escort required to do almost anything, Independent activity risky but still just about possible. Assume I was monitored. |
| Eric Thomas asks | Eric Thomas asks |
| What's the situation with the chemical attack last month? Has any real leads come out of it? | What's the situation with the chemical attack last month? Has any real leads come out of it? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| The CW issue is stalemated, though suspicions are growing that such weapons have been used, possibly by both sides. But the Syrian government is unhappy with calls for a UN investigation, saying it fears "Iraqi-style fabrications." Obama said use of CW would be a "red line." But nervousness over allegations from Israeli intelligence suggests a reluctance to get involved unless weapons are used on a large scale internally or against another country. | The CW issue is stalemated, though suspicions are growing that such weapons have been used, possibly by both sides. But the Syrian government is unhappy with calls for a UN investigation, saying it fears "Iraqi-style fabrications." Obama said use of CW would be a "red line." But nervousness over allegations from Israeli intelligence suggests a reluctance to get involved unless weapons are used on a large scale internally or against another country. |
| mojolojo asks | mojolojo asks |
| The Syrian opposition named Christian Syrian George Sabra as their interim chief after Khatib's resignation. Do you believe this will motivate Christians in Syria to join the uprising as they seem to be on the fence at the moment. In your opinion does this move by the opposition undermine the argument that Syria wishes to be a Islamic state? | The Syrian opposition named Christian Syrian George Sabra as their interim chief after Khatib's resignation. Do you believe this will motivate Christians in Syria to join the uprising as they seem to be on the fence at the moment. In your opinion does this move by the opposition undermine the argument that Syria wishes to be a Islamic state? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Sabra is highly-regarded and the fact that he is a Christian does underline the non-sectarian nature of the mainstream Syrian Opposition Coalition. But there are members of other minorities in the opposition too - Michel Kilo for one and activists like the filmmaker Basil Shehadi, who was shot by sniper in Homs. It is also important to watch the position of the Muslim Brotherhood - maybe more than the Salafi or jihadi-type groups. | Sabra is highly-regarded and the fact that he is a Christian does underline the non-sectarian nature of the mainstream Syrian Opposition Coalition. But there are members of other minorities in the opposition too - Michel Kilo for one and activists like the filmmaker Basil Shehadi, who was shot by sniper in Homs. It is also important to watch the position of the Muslim Brotherhood - maybe more than the Salafi or jihadi-type groups. |
| I haven't met anyone who believes that a post Assad Syria will be an Islamic state. | I haven't met anyone who believes that a post Assad Syria will be an Islamic state. |
| StElme asks | StElme asks |
| How do YOU see the situation in Syria 12 months from now? | How do YOU see the situation in Syria 12 months from now? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Likely to be much worse, whatever happens. Virtually everyone I spoke to in Damascus certainly expects that. Many say that if Assad does fall the next stage will be even more violent. | Likely to be much worse, whatever happens. Virtually everyone I spoke to in Damascus certainly expects that. Many say that if Assad does fall the next stage will be even more violent. |
| BrownMoses asks | BrownMoses asks |
| What's the reaction in Damascus to the changing situation south of Damascus in recent months? Is there a sense that the conflict has moved much closer to the capital? | What's the reaction in Damascus to the changing situation south of Damascus in recent months? Is there a sense that the conflict has moved much closer to the capital? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Conflict feels much closer. Damascus is effectively surrounded and parts of the city proper, such as Jobar, are under rebel control. The key front is in the Deraa area. | Conflict feels much closer. Damascus is effectively surrounded and parts of the city proper, such as Jobar, are under rebel control. The key front is in the Deraa area. |
| Grillo asks | Grillo asks |
| Did you get a sense as to how popular the FSA/rebel movement is amongst ordinary Syrians. Would you say that these groups have greater popular support than the government? | Did you get a sense as to how popular the FSA/rebel movement is amongst ordinary Syrians. Would you say that these groups have greater popular support than the government? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Gauging support for rebels or government is the hardest question of all. In Damascus, where the war is now much more palpable, I sense a great weariness and a belief that Assad will not remain in power in the long term. Understandably there is enormous anxiety about the future, especially because the opposition is so divided and so many outside parties are involved. | Gauging support for rebels or government is the hardest question of all. In Damascus, where the war is now much more palpable, I sense a great weariness and a belief that Assad will not remain in power in the long term. Understandably there is enormous anxiety about the future, especially because the opposition is so divided and so many outside parties are involved. |
| Soul_Side asks | Soul_Side asks |
| Having been to Damascus and seen the current state of security, are you now more, or less sympathetic to the view that sooner or later the armed rebellion will defeat the SAA? | Having been to Damascus and seen the current state of security, are you now more, or less sympathetic to the view that sooner or later the armed rebellion will defeat the SAA? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| My impression, based on conversations with Syrians, is that Assad cannot survive in the long term even if that means just getting through until the end of his presidential term, as he would like, next year. I guess that armed rebellion and political pressures will continue to go in tandem, though international factors will be important. The SAA looks worn down by two years of war. | My impression, based on conversations with Syrians, is that Assad cannot survive in the long term even if that means just getting through until the end of his presidential term, as he would like, next year. I guess that armed rebellion and political pressures will continue to go in tandem, though international factors will be important. The SAA looks worn down by two years of war. |
| Christian Brendon McCarthy asks | Christian Brendon McCarthy asks |
| What end-game can you envisage? | What end-game can you envisage? |
| Ian Black replies | Ian Black replies |
| Continuing attrition, perhaps a sudden rebel breakthrough in the south followed by political pressure on Assad to go. Maybe an internal coup. Chaos afterwards - any or all of these. | Continuing attrition, perhaps a sudden rebel breakthrough in the south followed by political pressure on Assad to go. Maybe an internal coup. Chaos afterwards - any or all of these. |
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