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Ukip's popularity will hit Tories hardest, says professor Ukip's popularity will hit Tories hardest, says professor
(5 months later)
Nigel Farage, the UK Independence Party leader, presents the "most serious fourth party incursion" into English electoral politics since the second world war – with the Tories as the main victims, the leading political scientist Professor John Curtice has claimed.Nigel Farage, the UK Independence Party leader, presents the "most serious fourth party incursion" into English electoral politics since the second world war – with the Tories as the main victims, the leading political scientist Professor John Curtice has claimed.
Amid Tory fears that Ukip is on course for a strong showing in next Thursday's English county elections, putting Farage in a strong position to top next year's European parliamentary elections, Curtice says David Cameron is the biggest victim of the surge.Amid Tory fears that Ukip is on course for a strong showing in next Thursday's English county elections, putting Farage in a strong position to top next year's European parliamentary elections, Curtice says David Cameron is the biggest victim of the surge.
Curtice, the professor of politics at Strathclyde university, says that around 16% of Tory supporters at the last election say they would now vote Ukip. This compares with 8% for the Liberal Democrats and 4% for Labour.Curtice, the professor of politics at Strathclyde university, says that around 16% of Tory supporters at the last election say they would now vote Ukip. This compares with 8% for the Liberal Democrats and 4% for Labour.
Support for Ukip, currently an average of around 12%, started to rise after George Osborne's so called "omnishambles" budget of last year, according to Curtice in a paper on the local elections for the Political Studies Association. "That has been followed by a remarkable increase in support for Ukip whose current polling rating is on average at least equal to that of the Liberal Democrats and which now threatens to pose the most serious independent fourth party incursion in English electoral politics in the post-war period," he writes.Support for Ukip, currently an average of around 12%, started to rise after George Osborne's so called "omnishambles" budget of last year, according to Curtice in a paper on the local elections for the Political Studies Association. "That has been followed by a remarkable increase in support for Ukip whose current polling rating is on average at least equal to that of the Liberal Democrats and which now threatens to pose the most serious independent fourth party incursion in English electoral politics in the post-war period," he writes.
Curtice highlighted the success of Ukip as it prepares to field a record 1,734 candidates in the local elections – more than three times the 560 candidates who stood in the same set of elections in 2009. In a series of counties – from East and West Sussex plus Essex in the south to North Yorkshire in the north and Devon in the south west – the party is fielding a complete slate of candidates. It is fielding a more modest number of candidates in places like Durham, though Ukip fielded no candidates there last time.Curtice highlighted the success of Ukip as it prepares to field a record 1,734 candidates in the local elections – more than three times the 560 candidates who stood in the same set of elections in 2009. In a series of counties – from East and West Sussex plus Essex in the south to North Yorkshire in the north and Devon in the south west – the party is fielding a complete slate of candidates. It is fielding a more modest number of candidates in places like Durham, though Ukip fielded no candidates there last time.
Farage is bullish about the party's prospects after it achieved the highest number of monthly membership applications in the first three weeks of this month. There were 2,000 applications, taking the overall membership to more than 25,000, beating the record set in 2004 when Robert Kilroy-Silk helped raise the party's profile in the European parliamentary elections.Farage is bullish about the party's prospects after it achieved the highest number of monthly membership applications in the first three weeks of this month. There were 2,000 applications, taking the overall membership to more than 25,000, beating the record set in 2004 when Robert Kilroy-Silk helped raise the party's profile in the European parliamentary elections.
Ukip sources say that Farage, who is criss-crossing England on the so-called "mustard trousers tour", is riding a noticeable wave. "Something is happening out there and the bubble appears not to get it," one source said.Ukip sources say that Farage, who is criss-crossing England on the so-called "mustard trousers tour", is riding a noticeable wave. "Something is happening out there and the bubble appears not to get it," one source said.
Aides say that the same phrase was repeated by members of highly varied audiences for Farage recently. "He speaks our language," the party was told after speeches by Farage to former miners in Accrington, to female pensioners in Harrogate and to fishermen in Boston. One Ukip source said: "Something must be going on when an English public schoolboy is able to speak their language."Aides say that the same phrase was repeated by members of highly varied audiences for Farage recently. "He speaks our language," the party was told after speeches by Farage to former miners in Accrington, to female pensioners in Harrogate and to fishermen in Boston. One Ukip source said: "Something must be going on when an English public schoolboy is able to speak their language."
Curtice says that Ukip is acting as the new party of protest after the Lib Dems entered government. But he says that Ukip is also attracting support over Europe and immigration.Curtice says that Ukip is acting as the new party of protest after the Lib Dems entered government. But he says that Ukip is also attracting support over Europe and immigration.
One Tory said: "Ukip will no doubt be able to crow if they get 15% or more next week. They will probably be the largest party in the European parliamentary elections next year. But by the time of the general election they will be down to 5%."One Tory said: "Ukip will no doubt be able to crow if they get 15% or more next week. They will probably be the largest party in the European parliamentary elections next year. But by the time of the general election they will be down to 5%."
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