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GDP figures 'voodoo' conceals northern woes, warns academic GDP figures 'voodoo' conceals northern woes, warns academic
(5 months later)
The GDP figures were tainted by the more buoyant economic conditions in the south and that parts of the north were probably in a triple-dip recession, according to a leading Manchester-based academic.The GDP figures were tainted by the more buoyant economic conditions in the south and that parts of the north were probably in a triple-dip recession, according to a leading Manchester-based academic.
Karel Williams, professor of accounting and political economy at Manchester Business School, dismissed the figures as voodoo, adding that because they were not broken down into regions "it's possible for the UK's position to have improved, but for the north and deprived parts of Wales to be in the grip of triple-dip recession".Karel Williams, professor of accounting and political economy at Manchester Business School, dismissed the figures as voodoo, adding that because they were not broken down into regions "it's possible for the UK's position to have improved, but for the north and deprived parts of Wales to be in the grip of triple-dip recession".
He maintains that the north is disproportionately affected by cuts in benefits and public-sector employment. "The implication from the figures is that the national economy has grown by 0.3%," Williams said. "But I very much doubt that the northern economy has grown at all. If we look at the long-term prospects, the West Midlands, Wales and the north-east have had no sustained record of private-sector job creation since the 1980s.He maintains that the north is disproportionately affected by cuts in benefits and public-sector employment. "The implication from the figures is that the national economy has grown by 0.3%," Williams said. "But I very much doubt that the northern economy has grown at all. If we look at the long-term prospects, the West Midlands, Wales and the north-east have had no sustained record of private-sector job creation since the 1980s.
"I seriously worry about the impact of government cuts in these areas. Maybe you don't want the population on benefits and public sector jobs, but if there isn't any private-sector job creation then you're not really solving the problem."I seriously worry about the impact of government cuts in these areas. Maybe you don't want the population on benefits and public sector jobs, but if there isn't any private-sector job creation then you're not really solving the problem.
" Disproportionately, the burden is being borne in the north because the government is [in effect] pressing London and south-east policies."" Disproportionately, the burden is being borne in the north because the government is [in effect] pressing London and south-east policies."
Christian Spence, research manager for the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce said northern businesses believed they were lagging behind because they were being starved of public infrastructure investment.Christian Spence, research manager for the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce said northern businesses believed they were lagging behind because they were being starved of public infrastructure investment.
He said: "I think there's an issue with regional disparity because in the north we are being deprived of public infrastructure development – and that is helping the south-east to do even better. We continue to ask the government to support the regions rather than going for easy returns in the south."He said: "I think there's an issue with regional disparity because in the north we are being deprived of public infrastructure development – and that is helping the south-east to do even better. We continue to ask the government to support the regions rather than going for easy returns in the south."
He was not, however, entirely downbeat, pointing to strong growth in digital media and services – the latter driven mostly by a strong finance and professional services sector. "There has been a slowdown in manufacturing in the last 18 months, partly because such sectors as aerospace are influenced by global demand, but we are not terribly worried about that because order books are looking better, particularly for international orders," he said.He was not, however, entirely downbeat, pointing to strong growth in digital media and services – the latter driven mostly by a strong finance and professional services sector. "There has been a slowdown in manufacturing in the last 18 months, partly because such sectors as aerospace are influenced by global demand, but we are not terribly worried about that because order books are looking better, particularly for international orders," he said.
James Ramsbottom, chief executive of the North East Chamber of Commerce, was also optimistic. "We're seeing five times the national average in the creation of private-sector jobs, and our exports are growing consistently," he said. "It's not a surge, but we've clearly turned a corner this year, and people are saying it's time to invest.James Ramsbottom, chief executive of the North East Chamber of Commerce, was also optimistic. "We're seeing five times the national average in the creation of private-sector jobs, and our exports are growing consistently," he said. "It's not a surge, but we've clearly turned a corner this year, and people are saying it's time to invest.
"There's a return to stronger confidence and a determination for companies to do things now rather than hold their breath and wait.""There's a return to stronger confidence and a determination for companies to do things now rather than hold their breath and wait."
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