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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Nigel Farage's surge makes local election results so hard to predict | Nigel Farage's surge makes local election results so hard to predict |
| (5 months later) | |
| Predicting the outcome of Thursday's local elections is more difficult than usual. On the last occasion that these councils were elected (2009), the Conservatives won two-thirds of nearly 2,400 contested seats and took control of 26 out of 27 counties. | Predicting the outcome of Thursday's local elections is more difficult than usual. On the last occasion that these councils were elected (2009), the Conservatives won two-thirds of nearly 2,400 contested seats and took control of 26 out of 27 counties. |
| Dominant in the shires and market towns, they exploited Gordon Brown's political nadir to inflict heavy defeat on a Labour party that mustered less than a quarter of the vote and was squeezed into third by the Liberal Democrats. | Dominant in the shires and market towns, they exploited Gordon Brown's political nadir to inflict heavy defeat on a Labour party that mustered less than a quarter of the vote and was squeezed into third by the Liberal Democrats. |
| The Tories will undoubtedly emerge with the most votes, seats and councils under their control when the polls close, but their losses will be heavy. How heavy is tricky to gauge because the spanner in the psephological works this time is Ukip. | The Tories will undoubtedly emerge with the most votes, seats and councils under their control when the polls close, but their losses will be heavy. How heavy is tricky to gauge because the spanner in the psephological works this time is Ukip. |
| In 2009, Ukip contested 25% of seats; on Thursday, it will field candidates in 73% of contests while enjoying double-digit scores in opinion polls. But what will Ukip's strong presence and surge in popularity mean? How will it disturb the pattern? | In 2009, Ukip contested 25% of seats; on Thursday, it will field candidates in 73% of contests while enjoying double-digit scores in opinion polls. But what will Ukip's strong presence and surge in popularity mean? How will it disturb the pattern? |
| The pundits are uncertain. While there is substance to Nigel Farage's view that Ukip draws its support from across the spectrum, the available data reveals its supporters to be socially conservative, and deeply concerned about immigration and the EU. | The pundits are uncertain. While there is substance to Nigel Farage's view that Ukip draws its support from across the spectrum, the available data reveals its supporters to be socially conservative, and deeply concerned about immigration and the EU. |
| Around half of Ukip's support comes from ex-Tory voters. Approximately one-fifth of those who voted for David Cameron's party in 2010 have switched to Ukip, according to the latest opinion polls – twice the rate of desertions to Farage as from the Liberal Democrats, and four times that from Labour. | Around half of Ukip's support comes from ex-Tory voters. Approximately one-fifth of those who voted for David Cameron's party in 2010 have switched to Ukip, according to the latest opinion polls – twice the rate of desertions to Farage as from the Liberal Democrats, and four times that from Labour. |
| Farage is a clever tactician. It makes strategic sense to choose these particular council elections to launch a mass of new candidates on voters. These are the Tory heartlands par excellence, fertile hunting ground for the populist challenger. As a party that inveighs against all the mainstream parties but stands to gain most from the Tories, Ukip has chosen its ground carefully, seeking votes from Tories disaffected by local and national issues – everything from wind farms to gay marriage. | Farage is a clever tactician. It makes strategic sense to choose these particular council elections to launch a mass of new candidates on voters. These are the Tory heartlands par excellence, fertile hunting ground for the populist challenger. As a party that inveighs against all the mainstream parties but stands to gain most from the Tories, Ukip has chosen its ground carefully, seeking votes from Tories disaffected by local and national issues – everything from wind farms to gay marriage. |
| The Liberal Democrats will continue to pay a heavy price for being the unpopular junior partner in the coalition, but will hope to limit their losses through Eastleigh-like campaigns focused on areas of grassroots strength. | The Liberal Democrats will continue to pay a heavy price for being the unpopular junior partner in the coalition, but will hope to limit their losses through Eastleigh-like campaigns focused on areas of grassroots strength. |
| As the pendulum swings away from the coalition, Labour will hope to recover in the counties where it lost control in 2009, such as Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Lancashire and Staffordshire. It will also look for signs of revival in places that will be target seats in the general election – Harlow, Crawley, Dartford and Ipswich. | As the pendulum swings away from the coalition, Labour will hope to recover in the counties where it lost control in 2009, such as Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Lancashire and Staffordshire. It will also look for signs of revival in places that will be target seats in the general election – Harlow, Crawley, Dartford and Ipswich. |
| On average, Labour is around 10% ahead in most national polls, despite losing support to Ukip. This should deliver a Commons majority in 2015, especially since boundarychanges that the Tories were so keen on will not take effect before then. But concerns remain about Ed Miliband's leadership and his party's capacity to manage the economy. Miliband's ratings are more negative than those of any opposition leader who has gone on to become prime minister since Thatcher. Farage is hugely popular. How that popularity translates into votes will become more evident after Thursday. | On average, Labour is around 10% ahead in most national polls, despite losing support to Ukip. This should deliver a Commons majority in 2015, especially since boundarychanges that the Tories were so keen on will not take effect before then. But concerns remain about Ed Miliband's leadership and his party's capacity to manage the economy. Miliband's ratings are more negative than those of any opposition leader who has gone on to become prime minister since Thatcher. Farage is hugely popular. How that popularity translates into votes will become more evident after Thursday. |
| Paul Webb is professor of politics at the University of Sussex | Paul Webb is professor of politics at the University of Sussex |
| • This article was amended on 2 May 2013. The original referred to Ukip as a party that inveigles, rather than inveighs, against all the mainstream parties. This has been corrected. | • This article was amended on 2 May 2013. The original referred to Ukip as a party that inveigles, rather than inveighs, against all the mainstream parties. This has been corrected. |
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