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Boredom, hatred and death might swing local elections for Tories Boredom, hatred and death might swing local elections for Tories
(about 3 hours later)
Not long ago, the next seven days were billed as "make or break" for David Cameron. After the Tories' hammering in Eastleigh, backbenchers muttered that he was on notice, and could be shunted out after Thursday's council elections. But as polling week dawns, nobody suggests that Cameron's anticipated boot in the ballot box will translate into immediate eviction from Downing Street. For cooling a looming crisis into a run-of-the-mill political week, Cameron has three things to thank: boredom, hatred and death. Not long ago, the next seven days were billed as "make or break" for David Cameron. After the Tories' hammering in Eastleigh, backbenchers muttered that he was on notice, and could be shunted out after Thursday's council elections. But as polling week dawns, nobody suggests that Cameron's expected boot in the ballot box will translate into immediate eviction from Downing Street. For cooling a looming crisis into a run-of-the-mill political week, Cameron has three things to thank: boredom, hatred and death.
A great yawn of a budget (can you remember anything in it?) was the first dollop of soothing balm. After last year's omnishambolic raid on pasties, grannies and charities, putting down the red box without anyone noticing ranked as a triumph for George Osborne. After that, we had George and Dave casually connecting the Derby father who burnt his own children to death with law-abiding citizens on benefits. It was persecution politics, but Westminster deemed this a cunning bit of loathing to unleash. And then Britain bade farewell to Margaret Thatcher. Throughout the pageantry, Cameron played the above-party statesman, even while endless 1980s footage created nostalgia for a Conservative heyday. All this cashed-in as a very modest swing back to the Tories in the polls – who were nine points behind in today's Sunday Times/YouGov survey, compared with 12 points three weeks ago. A more significant effect of the Iron Lady idolatry may have been to remind everybody that PMs can bounce back from mid-term blues. A great yawn of a budget (can you remember anything in it?) was the first dollop of soothing balm. After last year's omnishambolic raid on pasties, grannies and charities, putting down the red box without anyone noticing ranked as a triumph for George Osborne. After that, we had George and Dave casually connecting the Derby father who burned his own children to death with law-abiding citizens on benefits. It was persecution politics, but Westminster deemed this a cunning bit of loathing to unleash. And then Britain bade farewell to Margaret Thatcher. Throughout the pageantry, Cameron played the above-party statesman, even while endless 1980s footage created nostalgia for a Conservative heyday.
• Assessing the Cameron comedown on Friday morning will be fiddly, since the Tories are bound to win more councils and seats. Town halls run to different electoral rhythms, and this year it is – as the formidable council-crunchers Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher explain – the turn of Conservative England to hire and fire. Even on general election day 1997, hardly a vintage year for the Tories, the blues won slightly more of these shire wards. All this cashed in as a modest swing back to the Tories in the polls – they were nine points behind in today's Sunday Times/YouGov survey, compared with 12 points three weeks ago. A more significant effect of the Iron Lady idolatry may have been to remind everybody that prime ministers can bounce back from mid-term blues.
Assessing the Cameron comedown on Friday morning will be fiddly, since the Tories are bound to win more councils and seats. Town halls run to different electoral rhythms, and this year it is – as the formidable council-crunchers Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher explain – the turn of Conservative England to hire and fire. Even on general election day 1997, hardly a vintage year for the Tories, the blues won slightly more of these shire wards.
It is true that in 1993 John Major mislaid his majority in every county save Buckinghamshire, the first sign that he would never reconquer the political map. But even if Cameron were doing as badly today – and he's not – he'd hang on to more, because built-up boroughs from Plymouth to Peterborough have since become standalone authorities, seceding from rural shires, which thereby became bluer. With the record-breaking depths plumbed by Gordon Brown in 2009, the Tories start out in command of 29 of the 34 (unitary or upper-tier) English counties contested this week.It is true that in 1993 John Major mislaid his majority in every county save Buckinghamshire, the first sign that he would never reconquer the political map. But even if Cameron were doing as badly today – and he's not – he'd hang on to more, because built-up boroughs from Plymouth to Peterborough have since become standalone authorities, seceding from rural shires, which thereby became bluer. With the record-breaking depths plumbed by Gordon Brown in 2009, the Tories start out in command of 29 of the 34 (unitary or upper-tier) English counties contested this week.
• From that starting point, things can only get better for Labour – but perhaps not much better, since it starts so far behind that it will often struggle to break into the race. In three quarters of the Conservative seats being defended, it is the Lib Dems who start second, and jumping to the winning post from the back of the pack is tough. Consequently, Rallings and Thrasher reckon that even if Labour can secure an advantage to match its national poll lead, it will snatch only around 350 extra seats. Much less would spell trouble for Ed Miliband, but it will start to look like a good year if Derbyshire and Lancashire turn red, and all the more so if Labour tops the poll in those remaining urban pockets within the Tories' solid southern shires, such as Harlow and Crawley. From that starting point, things can only get better for Labour – but perhaps not much better, since it starts so far behind that it will often struggle to break into the race. In three-quarters of the Conservative seats being defended, it is the Lib Dems who start second, and jumping to the winning post from the back of the pack is tough. Consequently, Rallings and Thrasher reckon that even if Labour can secure an advantage to match its national poll lead, it will snatch only about 350 extra seats. Much less would spell trouble for Ed Miliband, but it will start to look like a good year if Derbyshire and Lancashire turn red, and all the more so if Labour tops the poll in those remaining urban pockets within the Tories' solid southern shires, such as Harlow and Crawley.
The corollary for the Tories themselves, mostly facing unfashionable Lib Dem challengers, is that it ought to be possible to stem losses to around 300. That would imply the loss of Nottinghamshire, which is already factored in to Cameron's political price, but if the losses climbed towards 500 then Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Gloucestershire could all go the same way at once. That would be enough to damage Cameron, and bring back pre-budget jitters. The corollary for the Tories themselves, mostly facing unfashionable Lib Dem challengers, is that it ought to be possible to keep their losses to about 300.
• Seepage of Lib Dem seats is nowadays assumed, and Nick Clegg can probably hope to keep his head down while losing 100-plus – unless, that is, he slips behind Ukip, the party with the highest hopes this week. Buoyed by an upbeat tour of the country, Nigel Farage last week continued to resist Cameron's line about fruitcakes and closet racists in spirited fashion, even after reported remarks by an East Sussex candidate that the Zionists had orchestrated the second world war. The Observer revealed the party's grave problems in formulating policy, but the polls suggest opportunity knocks, and Ukip is putting up in three-quarters of seats compared to one quarter in 2009. Back then, however, these contests were held staged on Euro-election day, which made a Brussels-bashing vote that bit more tempting. Besides, Ukip will have to overcome a first-past-the-post electoral system which traditionally sees off insurgents, which is why Rallings and Thrasher's best guess is that they will pick up no more than 40 seats. That would imply the loss of Nottinghamshire, which is already factored into Cameron's political price, but if the losses climbed towards 500 then Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Gloucestershire could all go the same way at once. That would be enough to damage Cameron, and bring back pre-budget jitters.
• Much more than 40, and the Tory fretting will again begin in earnest. Last week, Cameron widened his inner circle to include, err, a couple more Etonians, to complement himself, his chief of staff and Osborne's economic adviser. One was Boris's little brother, Jo – cue all the usual japing which accompanies all matters Johnson. (Maggie said all prime ministers needed a willy, but it took Dave to bring a Johnson into No 10, etc.) For all the fun amid the unexpected calm at the start of this week, the jokes could turn sour if Thursday metes out a lesson in the school of hard knocks. Seepage of Lib Dem seats is nowadays assumed, and Nick Clegg can probably hope to keep his head down while losing 100-plus – unless, that is, he slips behind Ukip, the party with the highest hopes this week. Buoyed by an upbeat tour of the country, Nigel Farage last week continued to resist Cameron's line about fruitcakes and closet racists in spirited fashion, even after reported remarks by an East Sussex candidate that Zionists had orchestrated the second world war. The Observer revealed the party's grave problems in formulating policy, but the polls suggest opportunity knocks, and Ukip is putting up in three-quarters of seats, compared with a quarter in 2009.
Back then, however, these contests were held staged on Euro-election day, which made a Brussels-bashing vote that bit more tempting. Besides, Ukip will have to overcome a first-past-the-post electoral system which traditionally sees off insurgents, which is why Rallings and Thrasher's best guess is that it will pick up no more than 40 seats.
Much more than 40, and the Tory fretting will again begin in earnest. Last week, Cameron widened his inner circle to include, er, a couple more Etonians, to complement himself, his chief of staff and Osborne's economic adviser. One was Boris's little brother, Jo – cue all the usual japing that accompanies all matters Johnson. (Maggie said all prime ministers needed a Willy, but it took Dave to bring a Johnson into No 10, etc.) For all the fun amid the unexpected calm at the start of this week, the jokes could turn sour if Thursday metes out a lesson in the school of hard knocks.
Five things to watch for this week
1. The launch of the government's pilot of its universal credit scheme begins in Tameside on Monday.
2. Amanda Knox, below, the American convicted and then acquitted of murdering British student Meredith Kercher, publishes her memoir on Tuesday.
3. Real Madrid take on Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final; Barcelona face Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
4. A union march is held in London to mark May Day on Wednesday.
5. Barack Obama visits Mexico and Costa Rica from Thursday.