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| Ukip will deliver a sting – but not this year | |
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| The British political landscape has long seemed an inhospitable place for minor parties. This week's local elections will see the latest attempt, by the UK Independence Party, to challenge the dominance of the main parties. Although Ukip, at 20 years old, is one of the youngest parties in Britain, a string of impressive performances at parliamentary byelections has seemingly convinced many that Nigel Farage and his lieutenants are capable of dismantling the three-party status quo. | The British political landscape has long seemed an inhospitable place for minor parties. This week's local elections will see the latest attempt, by the UK Independence Party, to challenge the dominance of the main parties. Although Ukip, at 20 years old, is one of the youngest parties in Britain, a string of impressive performances at parliamentary byelections has seemingly convinced many that Nigel Farage and his lieutenants are capable of dismantling the three-party status quo. |
| Some dismiss the threat, pointing out that Ukip is receiving a level of attention wholly disproportionate to its actual support. The party does not have one MP. It claims around only 100 of the more than 20,000 local councillors, and its experience of elected office amounts to just a handful of seats in the European Parliament and control of Ramsey town council in Cambridgeshire. | Some dismiss the threat, pointing out that Ukip is receiving a level of attention wholly disproportionate to its actual support. The party does not have one MP. It claims around only 100 of the more than 20,000 local councillors, and its experience of elected office amounts to just a handful of seats in the European Parliament and control of Ramsey town council in Cambridgeshire. |
| Nevertheless, more than two years ago, I drew on my research on Ukip with Robert Ford to argue in this paper that the party looked set to become a serious political player. The ingredients for an enduring Ukip challenge remain today. The natural party of protest, the Liberal Democrats, has been neutered by its participation in coalition government. David Cameron, whom Ukip describes as its "best recruitment tool", has failed to deliver a coherent and credible narrative of reassurance to the radical right elements within his party. And Labour's perceived loss of economic competence and failure to offer an appealing narrative on immigration has added to a perfect storm for Ukip, which is quickly mastering the fundamentals of a populist, anti-establishment strategy. | Nevertheless, more than two years ago, I drew on my research on Ukip with Robert Ford to argue in this paper that the party looked set to become a serious political player. The ingredients for an enduring Ukip challenge remain today. The natural party of protest, the Liberal Democrats, has been neutered by its participation in coalition government. David Cameron, whom Ukip describes as its "best recruitment tool", has failed to deliver a coherent and credible narrative of reassurance to the radical right elements within his party. And Labour's perceived loss of economic competence and failure to offer an appealing narrative on immigration has added to a perfect storm for Ukip, which is quickly mastering the fundamentals of a populist, anti-establishment strategy. |
| But the roots of the Ukip ascendancy extend deeper than the immediate humdrum of party politics, to a more diffuse mood of pessimism and frustration that has the potential to inflict serious, long-term damage. This is not just about Cameron or Ed Miliband, but concerns a loss of trust in elites generally and voters' frustration with the dry, managerial nature of modern campaigns, which often leave them feeling lost and abandoned. This is also not about the details of austerity, but concerns a deeper sense among voters that Britain is fundamentally on the wrong track, and that the main parties are no longer able to deliver effective responses to the serious issues facing the country. | But the roots of the Ukip ascendancy extend deeper than the immediate humdrum of party politics, to a more diffuse mood of pessimism and frustration that has the potential to inflict serious, long-term damage. This is not just about Cameron or Ed Miliband, but concerns a loss of trust in elites generally and voters' frustration with the dry, managerial nature of modern campaigns, which often leave them feeling lost and abandoned. This is also not about the details of austerity, but concerns a deeper sense among voters that Britain is fundamentally on the wrong track, and that the main parties are no longer able to deliver effective responses to the serious issues facing the country. |
| The most important of these, for Ukip, is immigration. Our research has shown that this is consistently the most important issue for Ukip voters. It is also the second most important issue for all voters, after the economy, and this will rise further as debates over migration from Bulgaria and Romania intensify. In fact, voters are more concerned today about immigration than unemployment, while the numbers who do not back any of the main parties on this issue continue to move upwards. | The most important of these, for Ukip, is immigration. Our research has shown that this is consistently the most important issue for Ukip voters. It is also the second most important issue for all voters, after the economy, and this will rise further as debates over migration from Bulgaria and Romania intensify. In fact, voters are more concerned today about immigration than unemployment, while the numbers who do not back any of the main parties on this issue continue to move upwards. |
| The question is not whether there is room for Ukip, but whether the party itself is capable of translating this potential into actual support. This task has undone many a minor party, such as the BNP, which this week will contest barely 100 local seats. | The question is not whether there is room for Ukip, but whether the party itself is capable of translating this potential into actual support. This task has undone many a minor party, such as the BNP, which this week will contest barely 100 local seats. |
| Ukip has realised that Europe can take the party only so far. The fact that only 7% of voters rank it as an important issue behind a list of others, helps explain why Ukip has been evolving rapidly from a single-issue party obsessed with leaving Europe towards a catch-all populist movement that combines greater focus on domestic policies with radical-right themes. Ukip is positioning itself to replicate the trajectory of radical right parties across Europe, which, by combining xenophobic, anti-establishment and protectionist themes, have drawn together a coalition of blue-collar workers who feel under threat and middle-class professionals who already felt financially insecure before the crisis. | Ukip has realised that Europe can take the party only so far. The fact that only 7% of voters rank it as an important issue behind a list of others, helps explain why Ukip has been evolving rapidly from a single-issue party obsessed with leaving Europe towards a catch-all populist movement that combines greater focus on domestic policies with radical-right themes. Ukip is positioning itself to replicate the trajectory of radical right parties across Europe, which, by combining xenophobic, anti-establishment and protectionist themes, have drawn together a coalition of blue-collar workers who feel under threat and middle-class professionals who already felt financially insecure before the crisis. |
| It is revealing that Ukippers are becoming just as comfortable talking about immigration, grammar schools, the NHS and defence, as they are about Europe. Inevitably, there will come a point when these policies are put under the microscope, and the free ride that Ukip is enjoying in several newspapers will come to an end. When Farage is pushed on detailed questions about economic policy or international relations, he often deflects, recycling populist catchphrases about Romanian criminals. This is not a viable long-term response. Ukip campaign strategists talk of exploiting Conservative weakness in the south and Labour weakness in the north. | It is revealing that Ukippers are becoming just as comfortable talking about immigration, grammar schools, the NHS and defence, as they are about Europe. Inevitably, there will come a point when these policies are put under the microscope, and the free ride that Ukip is enjoying in several newspapers will come to an end. When Farage is pushed on detailed questions about economic policy or international relations, he often deflects, recycling populist catchphrases about Romanian criminals. This is not a viable long-term response. Ukip campaign strategists talk of exploiting Conservative weakness in the south and Labour weakness in the north. |
| With few resources and an activist base that continues to lack discipline and experience, as reflected in the recent cases of candidates espousing extremist views, this strategy is embryonic at best. But it does point to a party that is actively targeting a niche in British politics. Influenced by the Lib Dems, Ukip is investing in pavement politics and urging its 25,000 members to knock on doors and build local bastions of support. This emphasis on engagement is reflected in Farage's recent tour of the country. How many mainstream politicians would visit three towns each day over several weeks to press palms with voters and look them in the eye? Throw in a few big donations, a few senior Conservative defectors, and keep the receptive rightwing media, and the result could be a serious rightwing insurgency. | With few resources and an activist base that continues to lack discipline and experience, as reflected in the recent cases of candidates espousing extremist views, this strategy is embryonic at best. But it does point to a party that is actively targeting a niche in British politics. Influenced by the Lib Dems, Ukip is investing in pavement politics and urging its 25,000 members to knock on doors and build local bastions of support. This emphasis on engagement is reflected in Farage's recent tour of the country. How many mainstream politicians would visit three towns each day over several weeks to press palms with voters and look them in the eye? Throw in a few big donations, a few senior Conservative defectors, and keep the receptive rightwing media, and the result could be a serious rightwing insurgency. |
| Minor parties in Britain have often remained true to historian Richard Hofstadter's description of third parties in America: they are like bees – once they have stung, they die. Ukip will deliver a sting this week: simply by raising its number of candidates more than threefold to over 1,700, it will almost certainly gain more councillors and see its vote increase. But local elections have never been the ideal way to gauge the true strength of a party. To assess whether Ukip is capable of turning its sting into a major breakthrough, we will have to wait for the 2014 European elections, and the 2015 general election. But one thing is clear – the ingredients that are needed for such a breakthrough are here. | Minor parties in Britain have often remained true to historian Richard Hofstadter's description of third parties in America: they are like bees – once they have stung, they die. Ukip will deliver a sting this week: simply by raising its number of candidates more than threefold to over 1,700, it will almost certainly gain more councillors and see its vote increase. But local elections have never been the ideal way to gauge the true strength of a party. To assess whether Ukip is capable of turning its sting into a major breakthrough, we will have to wait for the 2014 European elections, and the 2015 general election. But one thing is clear – the ingredients that are needed for such a breakthrough are here. |