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| Scotland's currency row: a critical moment for the 'yes' campaign | Scotland's currency row: a critical moment for the 'yes' campaign |
| (5 months later) | |
| Are we witnessing the maturing of Scotland's independence movement or its first major crisis? The striking divergence over a future Scottish currency between Alex Salmond and his key Yes Scotland ally Dennis Canavan is a significant moment: the first big policy split between the two major players in the pro-independence movement, the SNP and, it seems, their allies in Yes Scotland. | Are we witnessing the maturing of Scotland's independence movement or its first major crisis? The striking divergence over a future Scottish currency between Alex Salmond and his key Yes Scotland ally Dennis Canavan is a significant moment: the first big policy split between the two major players in the pro-independence movement, the SNP and, it seems, their allies in Yes Scotland. |
| That potentially critical tension within the "yes" movement over an independent Scotland's currency options has been growing steadily, and accelerated markedly after last week's Treasury paper on sterling and independence was published. | That potentially critical tension within the "yes" movement over an independent Scotland's currency options has been growing steadily, and accelerated markedly after last week's Treasury paper on sterling and independence was published. |
| It came to a head on Tuesday, in two competing television interviews. Canavan, a veteran Labour and then independent politician who now chairs Yes Scotland, told the BBC his preference was for a post-independence Scotland to have its own currency and even opt for the euro in future: | It came to a head on Tuesday, in two competing television interviews. Canavan, a veteran Labour and then independent politician who now chairs Yes Scotland, told the BBC his preference was for a post-independence Scotland to have its own currency and even opt for the euro in future: |
| If Scotland were to have its own currency then it would have far more freedom to do its own thing and it would have a full range of economic levers to determine its own economic policy. | If Scotland were to have its own currency then it would have far more freedom to do its own thing and it would have a full range of economic levers to determine its own economic policy. |
| He said people at Yes Scotland events "throughout the length and breadth of the country", people were questioning the belief that retaining sterling was the best option: | He said people at Yes Scotland events "throughout the length and breadth of the country", people were questioning the belief that retaining sterling was the best option: |
| I think that there is a considerable body of opinion that would favour Scotland having its own currency and keeping open the option that if and when the Eurozone recovers economically then possibly put it to the people of Scotland by means of a referendum whether we should join the Eurozone. | I think that there is a considerable body of opinion that would favour Scotland having its own currency and keeping open the option that if and when the Eurozone recovers economically then possibly put it to the people of Scotland by means of a referendum whether we should join the Eurozone. |
| Soon afterwards, Salmond was on Channel 4 News insisting that keeping sterling, allowing the Bank of England to be Scotland's central bank, was the most obvious and most prudent step. It would not give the Bank control over Scotland's economy: that would rest at Holyrood. | Soon afterwards, Salmond was on Channel 4 News insisting that keeping sterling, allowing the Bank of England to be Scotland's central bank, was the most obvious and most prudent step. It would not give the Bank control over Scotland's economy: that would rest at Holyrood. |
| He told Jon Snow: | He told Jon Snow: |
| Can I point out that sterling is Scotland's currency as well at the present moment. It is not the property of George Osborne [the Chancellor]. You would have to have a sustainability arrangement. [You] wouldn't have to have oversight of Scotland's budget or for that matter Scotland having oversight of England's budget. You just need sustainability in terms of borrowing and overall debt levels. | Can I point out that sterling is Scotland's currency as well at the present moment. It is not the property of George Osborne [the Chancellor]. You would have to have a sustainability arrangement. [You] wouldn't have to have oversight of Scotland's budget or for that matter Scotland having oversight of England's budget. You just need sustainability in terms of borrowing and overall debt levels. |
| The difficulty for Yes Scotland is that Canavan gave his BBC interview without alerting his colleagues, unnerving Yes Scotland's staff, already twitchy after a tricky weekend when Canavan and others began openly criticising their own campaign and the SNP from the left for failing to assert themselves. | The difficulty for Yes Scotland is that Canavan gave his BBC interview without alerting his colleagues, unnerving Yes Scotland's staff, already twitchy after a tricky weekend when Canavan and others began openly criticising their own campaign and the SNP from the left for failing to assert themselves. |
| Margo MacDonald, former SNP MP and now independent MSP, and Scottish Green leader Patrick Harvie, a leading supporter of Yes Scotland, told Scotland on Sunday that Salmond and the SNP needed to adopt a "bolder", "radical" vision to attract voters. | Margo MacDonald, former SNP MP and now independent MSP, and Scottish Green leader Patrick Harvie, a leading supporter of Yes Scotland, told Scotland on Sunday that Salmond and the SNP needed to adopt a "bolder", "radical" vision to attract voters. |
| MacDonald said: | MacDonald said: |
| They are cautious but they have got to realise that they are hoping to deconstruct a very firm and stable construct [the UK]. You can't do that without boldness... There's room for a bit of anger. | They are cautious but they have got to realise that they are hoping to deconstruct a very firm and stable construct [the UK]. You can't do that without boldness... There's room for a bit of anger. |
| Yes Scotland's officials – aware they are managing a coalition of quite distinct parties and people – has been studious until now to avoid obvious controversy and conflicts within its ranks. | Yes Scotland's officials – aware they are managing a coalition of quite distinct parties and people – has been studious until now to avoid obvious controversy and conflicts within its ranks. |
| Some now distance Canavan from the campaign, pointing out that Canavan has an advisory role as chairman of its advisory board – he doesn't run or direct Yes Scotland. It doesn't have a board of management. But they argue there is an alternative take on Canavan's intervention: it certainly shows that Yes Scotland is developing a distinctive voice which, said one keenly interested figure in the independence movement, allows Yes Scotland to shoot down the notion the group is an SNP plaything: | Some now distance Canavan from the campaign, pointing out that Canavan has an advisory role as chairman of its advisory board – he doesn't run or direct Yes Scotland. It doesn't have a board of management. But they argue there is an alternative take on Canavan's intervention: it certainly shows that Yes Scotland is developing a distinctive voice which, said one keenly interested figure in the independence movement, allows Yes Scotland to shoot down the notion the group is an SNP plaything: |
| It certainly makes it much harder for them to claim in future that Denis or Blair Jenkins [Yes Scotland chief executive] take their orders from Alex. | It certainly makes it much harder for them to claim in future that Denis or Blair Jenkins [Yes Scotland chief executive] take their orders from Alex. |
| Another source added: | Another source added: |
| We can turn that into a positive, that we're not just the SNP. | We can turn that into a positive, that we're not just the SNP. |
| So diversity and even dissent is healthy, they assert. It is allowing Yes Scotland to reach out to unaligned voters – those who won't or don't vote SNP, for instance, or who aren't already political activists. It allows Yes Scotland to build that broad-based unaligned community movement is aspires to be. | So diversity and even dissent is healthy, they assert. It is allowing Yes Scotland to reach out to unaligned voters – those who won't or don't vote SNP, for instance, or who aren't already political activists. It allows Yes Scotland to build that broad-based unaligned community movement is aspires to be. |
| The blogger and SNP activist and a formerly aspiring Euro-MP Natalie McGarry blogged about this on Better Nation, arguing: | The blogger and SNP activist and a formerly aspiring Euro-MP Natalie McGarry blogged about this on Better Nation, arguing: |
| Post independence it is up to me, and people like me and the public to make our case to the Scottish people about what shape our independence takes. | Post independence it is up to me, and people like me and the public to make our case to the Scottish people about what shape our independence takes. |
| Independence does not belong to the SNP, nor does it belong to Alex Salmond. Independence is about opportunity and democracy. It isn't about policy. | Independence does not belong to the SNP, nor does it belong to Alex Salmond. Independence is about opportunity and democracy. It isn't about policy. |
| Diversity is strength, if those on the Yes side are bold enough to sell it. | Diversity is strength, if those on the Yes side are bold enough to sell it. |
| But it is also for their opponents a very sharp wedge to drive into the yes campaign, which in turn presents the pro-independence movement with a profound dilemma. If the "yes" cannot agree on the basics like a stable currency – which, as the euro crisis has shown, underpins economic security - what are Scotland's voters saying "yes" to? | But it is also for their opponents a very sharp wedge to drive into the yes campaign, which in turn presents the pro-independence movement with a profound dilemma. If the "yes" cannot agree on the basics like a stable currency – which, as the euro crisis has shown, underpins economic security - what are Scotland's voters saying "yes" to? |
| With ill-concealed relish, Better Together seized the opportunity by releasing quotes from Colin Fox, Scottish Socialist party leader and Yes Scotland board member; Jim Fairlie, a former SNP deputy leader; Patrick Harvie; Pat Kane, a Yes Scotland board member; Gordon Wilson, a former SNP leader, and Jim Sillars, another former SNP deputy leader, all favouring a separate currency either immediately or soon after independence. | With ill-concealed relish, Better Together seized the opportunity by releasing quotes from Colin Fox, Scottish Socialist party leader and Yes Scotland board member; Jim Fairlie, a former SNP deputy leader; Patrick Harvie; Pat Kane, a Yes Scotland board member; Gordon Wilson, a former SNP leader, and Jim Sillars, another former SNP deputy leader, all favouring a separate currency either immediately or soon after independence. |
| Unless Canavan and his non-SNP colleagues recant, or Salmond changes tack, it will be impossible for Yes Scotland to line up behind Salmond on his currency and monetary policy – including the vexed issue of relying on a "foreign" central bank in London - in next year's referendum campaign. | Unless Canavan and his non-SNP colleagues recant, or Salmond changes tack, it will be impossible for Yes Scotland to line up behind Salmond on his currency and monetary policy – including the vexed issue of relying on a "foreign" central bank in London - in next year's referendum campaign. |
| Choreographing its activity with the UK government's attack on the currency issue last week, Better Together was also quick at the weekend to publish another YouGov poll showing 59% of voters put the economy top of their list of priorities, while the debate about which currency to use was ranked fifth, behind taxes and spending, pensions and welfare, and then health, at 22%. | Choreographing its activity with the UK government's attack on the currency issue last week, Better Together was also quick at the weekend to publish another YouGov poll showing 59% of voters put the economy top of their list of priorities, while the debate about which currency to use was ranked fifth, behind taxes and spending, pensions and welfare, and then health, at 22%. |
| This is a long-established political fact: the economy, whether that is wages, inflation, mortgage rates or unemployment, drives elections for the majority of voters. It will certainly drive the referendum too. | This is a long-established political fact: the economy, whether that is wages, inflation, mortgage rates or unemployment, drives elections for the majority of voters. It will certainly drive the referendum too. |
| Given the significant levels of uncertainty or antipathy towards independence amongst voters, the longer that "yes" support hovers at around at about a third of voters, the far more difficult getting to 51% and victory will become. | Given the significant levels of uncertainty or antipathy towards independence amongst voters, the longer that "yes" support hovers at around at about a third of voters, the far more difficult getting to 51% and victory will become. |
| There is a conundrum here for Yes Scotland: while it wants to present a united face, are some of its constituent parties, the Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialists for instance, using this campaign as a platform to publicise and develop their own, potentially competing, political agendas? Well, yes, admit sources. | There is a conundrum here for Yes Scotland: while it wants to present a united face, are some of its constituent parties, the Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialists for instance, using this campaign as a platform to publicise and develop their own, potentially competing, political agendas? Well, yes, admit sources. |
| Colin Fox, the SSP leader, whose party no longer has any elected politicians when once it had six MSPs, is getting valuable primetime airtime. Yes Scotland's leaflets and public meetings are giving these parties far greater reach. That, said one insider, was a good thing because it strengthens the movement's diversity: | Colin Fox, the SSP leader, whose party no longer has any elected politicians when once it had six MSPs, is getting valuable primetime airtime. Yes Scotland's leaflets and public meetings are giving these parties far greater reach. That, said one insider, was a good thing because it strengthens the movement's diversity: |
| It goes to the fact that the smaller parties will undoubtedly benefit | It goes to the fact that the smaller parties will undoubtedly benefit |
| He added: | He added: |
| On the day after the referendum, regardless of a 'yes' or a 'no' vote, for the 18 months after that, we will all be fighting for votes in the 2016 Scottish elections. | On the day after the referendum, regardless of a 'yes' or a 'no' vote, for the 18 months after that, we will all be fighting for votes in the 2016 Scottish elections. |
| But that also means there are two competing narratives emerging for the independence movement: firstly, the Scottish government and SNP's largely fixed and defined proposition, versus the more fluid, open-ended buffet of ideas from Yes Scotland's coalition involving both the SNP and several leftwing minority parties, with unaligned activists like Kane and actor Elaine C Smith. | But that also means there are two competing narratives emerging for the independence movement: firstly, the Scottish government and SNP's largely fixed and defined proposition, versus the more fluid, open-ended buffet of ideas from Yes Scotland's coalition involving both the SNP and several leftwing minority parties, with unaligned activists like Kane and actor Elaine C Smith. |
| The SNP's referendum prospectus in November is expected to offer a quite specific vision for independence: it will tell us about its currency proposals, its defence strategy, its approach to taxation and energy, its media policies (what will happen to the BBC?) and its welfare policy (how will it reverse David Cameron's benefit cuts?). It will want to offer mainstream voters clarity and coherence. | The SNP's referendum prospectus in November is expected to offer a quite specific vision for independence: it will tell us about its currency proposals, its defence strategy, its approach to taxation and energy, its media policies (what will happen to the BBC?) and its welfare policy (how will it reverse David Cameron's benefit cuts?). It will want to offer mainstream voters clarity and coherence. |
| As McGarry puts it, Yes Scotland will, however, tell voters they can choose to make Scotland whatever they want it to be after voting "yes" in 2014: that will attract some but unnerve others. | As McGarry puts it, Yes Scotland will, however, tell voters they can choose to make Scotland whatever they want it to be after voting "yes" in 2014: that will attract some but unnerve others. |
| With the weeks before 18 September 2014 now slowly ebbing away, leaving the slope between 33% and 51% getting steeper by the day, can the campaign hope to win over an ambivalent population with more ambiguity? At least, said one campaign source, this crisis gives them the next year to learn the lessons and sort it out. | With the weeks before 18 September 2014 now slowly ebbing away, leaving the slope between 33% and 51% getting steeper by the day, can the campaign hope to win over an ambivalent population with more ambiguity? At least, said one campaign source, this crisis gives them the next year to learn the lessons and sort it out. |
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