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| François Hollande's annus horribilis | François Hollande's annus horribilis |
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| François Hollande always said being president of France in its worst economic crisis in decades was not going to be easy. But his first year in power has been a whole lot worse than Socialists feared. | François Hollande always said being president of France in its worst economic crisis in decades was not going to be easy. But his first year in power has been a whole lot worse than Socialists feared. |
| The one-year anniversary of the French left's return to the Elysée has been marked by disappointment on promises to cut unemployment, restore growth, contain the deficit and reverse Europe's one-size-fits-all austerity drive. Hollande's approval ratings have plunged to the lowest of any modern French leader. He is record-breakingly unpopular unusually early in his presidency, more even than his disliked predecessor, the rightwing Nicolas Sarkozy. | The one-year anniversary of the French left's return to the Elysée has been marked by disappointment on promises to cut unemployment, restore growth, contain the deficit and reverse Europe's one-size-fits-all austerity drive. Hollande's approval ratings have plunged to the lowest of any modern French leader. He is record-breakingly unpopular unusually early in his presidency, more even than his disliked predecessor, the rightwing Nicolas Sarkozy. |
| One recent poll showed three-quarters of French people were unhappy with him. Significantly, even leftwing voters have begun to lose confidence. The French electorate, already European champion in pessimism, is gloomier than ever. | One recent poll showed three-quarters of French people were unhappy with him. Significantly, even leftwing voters have begun to lose confidence. The French electorate, already European champion in pessimism, is gloomier than ever. |
| The reasons for Hollande's annus horribilis, as pollsters put it, lie in a combination of the dire economy and Hollande's perceived softly-softly style. It's not that he has done nothing – the government vaunts its labour market reform and measures to companies to boost competitiveness, for example – but the population cannot seem to make sense of it. The government action has been obscured by rows – such as the unexpectedly ferocious social rift on gay marriage, or the scandal of Jérôme Cahuzac, Hollande's lying tax tsar who was secretly dodging tax. The cabinet seems divided on how far to go with spending cuts, with those furthest to the left openly criticising policy. | The reasons for Hollande's annus horribilis, as pollsters put it, lie in a combination of the dire economy and Hollande's perceived softly-softly style. It's not that he has done nothing – the government vaunts its labour market reform and measures to companies to boost competitiveness, for example – but the population cannot seem to make sense of it. The government action has been obscured by rows – such as the unexpectedly ferocious social rift on gay marriage, or the scandal of Jérôme Cahuzac, Hollande's lying tax tsar who was secretly dodging tax. The cabinet seems divided on how far to go with spending cuts, with those furthest to the left openly criticising policy. |
| A poll last month found half of French people think the government does not know where it is going with the economy, or if it does it is deliberately hiding its plan from the people. Once-popular measures, such as lowering the threshold for wealth tax, or Hollande cutting his own and ministers' salaries, appear to have been forgotten or obscured. Things that were initially most popular – such as the 75% tax on income over €1m (£850,000), which is yet to be enforced after it was rejected as unconstitutional and required a rethink, school reform or gay marriage – are now less liked in polls. | A poll last month found half of French people think the government does not know where it is going with the economy, or if it does it is deliberately hiding its plan from the people. Once-popular measures, such as lowering the threshold for wealth tax, or Hollande cutting his own and ministers' salaries, appear to have been forgotten or obscured. Things that were initially most popular – such as the 75% tax on income over €1m (£850,000), which is yet to be enforced after it was rejected as unconstitutional and required a rethink, school reform or gay marriage – are now less liked in polls. |
| "At the very least, there has been a government failure in explaining to people what it wanted to do," said Frédéric Sawacki of Paris University. | "At the very least, there has been a government failure in explaining to people what it wanted to do," said Frédéric Sawacki of Paris University. |
| Hollande's biggest problem is spiralling unemployment, a symptom of France's economic decay and zero growth. All French leaders are ultimately judged on their ability to reduce unemployment. Hollande had promised to reverse the rising curve before the end of this year. But that seems far from reach. Unemployment is at 10.6% or 3.2 million people, the highest number since records began in 1996. More people are out of a job in France than at any other time. | Hollande's biggest problem is spiralling unemployment, a symptom of France's economic decay and zero growth. All French leaders are ultimately judged on their ability to reduce unemployment. Hollande had promised to reverse the rising curve before the end of this year. But that seems far from reach. Unemployment is at 10.6% or 3.2 million people, the highest number since records began in 1996. More people are out of a job in France than at any other time. |
| Hollande's long-term solutions, including subsidised youth job schemes and labour reform to make hiring and firing slightly easier to weather economic downturns, have not produced quick results. Growth will be lower than predicted and the government will not meet its promised EU target to cut the deficit this year because of the stagnating economy. Highly symbolic factory closures continue, including among beleaguered car-markers, once big job-providers. | Hollande's long-term solutions, including subsidised youth job schemes and labour reform to make hiring and firing slightly easier to weather economic downturns, have not produced quick results. Growth will be lower than predicted and the government will not meet its promised EU target to cut the deficit this year because of the stagnating economy. Highly symbolic factory closures continue, including among beleaguered car-markers, once big job-providers. |
| Previously when the left came to power, it made generous gestures towards the electorate then tightened the screw later. Hollande chose the opposite, saying his first two years would be hard, then the efforts would pay off. But the economy seems to leave little room for any possible bright years at the end of his five-year term. Crucially, his consensus-style of negotiation politics is seen as dithering by the electorate. | Previously when the left came to power, it made generous gestures towards the electorate then tightened the screw later. Hollande chose the opposite, saying his first two years would be hard, then the efforts would pay off. But the economy seems to leave little room for any possible bright years at the end of his five-year term. Crucially, his consensus-style of negotiation politics is seen as dithering by the electorate. |
| Emmanuel Rivière, of the polling firm TNS-Sofres, said: "For 15 years, the French people have had a structural problem with the way they are governed. Whether a wilful boxer like Nicolas Sarkozy or a soft-consensus man like Hollande, people think neither model works. Neither managed to stem unemployment or fight the deficit. | Emmanuel Rivière, of the polling firm TNS-Sofres, said: "For 15 years, the French people have had a structural problem with the way they are governed. Whether a wilful boxer like Nicolas Sarkozy or a soft-consensus man like Hollande, people think neither model works. Neither managed to stem unemployment or fight the deficit. |
| "Hollande's method isn't seen to live up to the feeling of urgency in France. He gave himself the whole five-year term to get results and reforms for the country. But there's a big misunderstanding around that because his campaign slogan was 'Change is now'. There's a gap between the public's hopes and what it sees right now." | "Hollande's method isn't seen to live up to the feeling of urgency in France. He gave himself the whole five-year term to get results and reforms for the country. But there's a big misunderstanding around that because his campaign slogan was 'Change is now'. There's a gap between the public's hopes and what it sees right now." |
| One unexpected event that brought a brief boost to Hollande was the military intervention in Mali – he described a visit to the capital, Bamako, as the "most important day of my political life". But Henri Rey, of the Institute of Political Science in Paris, said the slight bounce did not have a lasting impact politically: "Mali was seen as a success, but it did not fundamentally change the equation." | One unexpected event that brought a brief boost to Hollande was the military intervention in Mali – he described a visit to the capital, Bamako, as the "most important day of my political life". But Henri Rey, of the Institute of Political Science in Paris, said the slight bounce did not have a lasting impact politically: "Mali was seen as a success, but it did not fundamentally change the equation." |
| The year ahead is unlikely to get any easier, with the government faced with overhauling a pensions system the state can no longer pay for, and cutting public spending while insisting it will avoid axe-swinging to the public sector and benefits. Jean-Marc Ayrault, the prime minister, has promised in parliament to fight the nation's anxiety with "action". | The year ahead is unlikely to get any easier, with the government faced with overhauling a pensions system the state can no longer pay for, and cutting public spending while insisting it will avoid axe-swinging to the public sector and benefits. Jean-Marc Ayrault, the prime minister, has promised in parliament to fight the nation's anxiety with "action". |
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