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| What do the local election results mean for each party? | What do the local election results mean for each party? |
| (5 months later) | |
| Click to read about each party: Ukip | Conservatives | Lib Dems | Labour | Click to read about each party: Ukip | Conservatives | Lib Dems | Labour |
| Ukip | Ukip |
| Ukip is surpassing its target numbers for gains, polling well in southern counties but also, as South Shields showed, in the north. Overall it is polling 19-26% of the vote across England, and as a result of standing 1,745 candidates it will now have a previously lacking database to target parliamentary seats. To emerge from nowhere in Lincolnshire to take 16 seats is extraordinary, even if the county saw an overall fall in the vote. | Ukip is surpassing its target numbers for gains, polling well in southern counties but also, as South Shields showed, in the north. Overall it is polling 19-26% of the vote across England, and as a result of standing 1,745 candidates it will now have a previously lacking database to target parliamentary seats. To emerge from nowhere in Lincolnshire to take 16 seats is extraordinary, even if the county saw an overall fall in the vote. |
| Nigel Farage has relatively easy terrain in the European elections in 2014, and has already claimed he will come first. But he also needs to judge the scale of his ambition. On Thursday he was hedging his bets, saying his influence over the Conservatives was "more psychological than arithmetical" and simultaneously claiming he could make a Canada-style breakthrough. At another point he suggested his party might simply act as an influence on the main parties in the same way that the SDP forced Labour to rethink, leading to the birth of Blairism in the Labour party in the 90s. | Nigel Farage has relatively easy terrain in the European elections in 2014, and has already claimed he will come first. But he also needs to judge the scale of his ambition. On Thursday he was hedging his bets, saying his influence over the Conservatives was "more psychological than arithmetical" and simultaneously claiming he could make a Canada-style breakthrough. At another point he suggested his party might simply act as an influence on the main parties in the same way that the SDP forced Labour to rethink, leading to the birth of Blairism in the Labour party in the 90s. |
| He himself asked the question: "Are they voting Ukip just to stick two fingers up and to scream very loudly or are they voting Ukip because we're offering positive policy alternatives?" | He himself asked the question: "Are they voting Ukip just to stick two fingers up and to scream very loudly or are they voting Ukip because we're offering positive policy alternatives?" |
| Farage now has 100 councillors, and their performance in office will matter. They are the ambassadors for four-party politics, and if many of them perform in the council chambers as erratically as some of their MEPs in Brussels, it will not help Ukip's credibility. If the rubbish does not get collected, is it credible to blame Herman Van Rompuy and the Brussels bureaucrats? | Farage now has 100 councillors, and their performance in office will matter. They are the ambassadors for four-party politics, and if many of them perform in the council chambers as erratically as some of their MEPs in Brussels, it will not help Ukip's credibility. If the rubbish does not get collected, is it credible to blame Herman Van Rompuy and the Brussels bureaucrats? |
| The party's policies will receive a new level of scrutiny. It managed to get through the local elections campaigning on an immigration policy described on its website as "currently under review and under update". | The party's policies will receive a new level of scrutiny. It managed to get through the local elections campaigning on an immigration policy described on its website as "currently under review and under update". |
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| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| The Conservatives have clearly been hit in the north and south. They have yet to work out their strategic messaging about Ukip, with the minister without portfolio Kenneth Clarke denouncing them as clowns, and David Cameron hardly daring to mention their name. Downing Street will also be wondering how much further it can go in policy terms to woo back the disaffected. In the past months there has been an offer of an EU referendum, withdrawal of benefits from EU immigrants, tougher jail regimes, withdrawal of aid from South Africa, and a general opening of the curtains on anyone planning to stay at home on welfare. There are further policy options for the Conservatives, including legislating on a European referendum in this parliament, but if Cameron pushes very hard to the right he will face resistance from his coalition colleagues, and may find himself limited to signalling what he would do after 2015 if he was rid of the Nick Clegg roadblock. | The Conservatives have clearly been hit in the north and south. They have yet to work out their strategic messaging about Ukip, with the minister without portfolio Kenneth Clarke denouncing them as clowns, and David Cameron hardly daring to mention their name. Downing Street will also be wondering how much further it can go in policy terms to woo back the disaffected. In the past months there has been an offer of an EU referendum, withdrawal of benefits from EU immigrants, tougher jail regimes, withdrawal of aid from South Africa, and a general opening of the curtains on anyone planning to stay at home on welfare. There are further policy options for the Conservatives, including legislating on a European referendum in this parliament, but if Cameron pushes very hard to the right he will face resistance from his coalition colleagues, and may find himself limited to signalling what he would do after 2015 if he was rid of the Nick Clegg roadblock. |
| Cameron may well take the advice of the Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, who urged him to think about the messengers, and not just the message. If there is an anti-elitist mood abroad, a manifesto drawn up on the playing fields of Eton may not be wise. | Cameron may well take the advice of the Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, who urged him to think about the messengers, and not just the message. If there is an anti-elitist mood abroad, a manifesto drawn up on the playing fields of Eton may not be wise. |
| He will be wise to do everything possible to prevent Ukip taking the stage in leaders' debates before the general election. | He will be wise to do everything possible to prevent Ukip taking the stage in leaders' debates before the general election. |
| But the main Tory anti-Ukip message in 2015 is already in place. In a general election, it is a binary choice. Do you want Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, to greet Ed Miliband or David Cameron walking up Downing Street? In that big, mainly economic argument, Farage does not have a special message. | But the main Tory anti-Ukip message in 2015 is already in place. In a general election, it is a binary choice. Do you want Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, to greet Ed Miliband or David Cameron walking up Downing Street? In that big, mainly economic argument, Farage does not have a special message. |
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| Lib Dems | Lib Dems |
| The Liberal Democrats received their worst result since the second world war in South Shields, just beating the Monster Raving Loony party. The BBC table shows the Lib Dems' share of the vote in key wards falling from 25% to 14% and the party coming fourth in England, a terrible decline for a party that once dominated local government. But Lib Dems are clinging to the notion that they are doing well in the relatively few areas they need to retain their seats at Westminster. In truth, with no contests in Scotland or London, that is hard to gauge. They also suffered a setback in Eastleigh in the Hampshire county council elections. The party pointed to gains in Oxfordshire and net gains in Taunton Deane. Jeremy Browne, the MP for Taunton, admitted Ukip represented a new dynamic in politics, but delivering his party's message, he said: "Where we are strong, where we have a track record, we are a resilient and lasting force in British politics." | The Liberal Democrats received their worst result since the second world war in South Shields, just beating the Monster Raving Loony party. The BBC table shows the Lib Dems' share of the vote in key wards falling from 25% to 14% and the party coming fourth in England, a terrible decline for a party that once dominated local government. But Lib Dems are clinging to the notion that they are doing well in the relatively few areas they need to retain their seats at Westminster. In truth, with no contests in Scotland or London, that is hard to gauge. They also suffered a setback in Eastleigh in the Hampshire county council elections. The party pointed to gains in Oxfordshire and net gains in Taunton Deane. Jeremy Browne, the MP for Taunton, admitted Ukip represented a new dynamic in politics, but delivering his party's message, he said: "Where we are strong, where we have a track record, we are a resilient and lasting force in British politics." |
| He said he did not think the verdict was a response to deficit reduction. He argued: "There is a wider sense that [it is] the way politics has been done and the style of politics they are railing against." He picked out the speech by Labour's winning candidate in South Shields, describing it as an "inauthentic and insincere, stage-managed occasion". | He said he did not think the verdict was a response to deficit reduction. He argued: "There is a wider sense that [it is] the way politics has been done and the style of politics they are railing against." He picked out the speech by Labour's winning candidate in South Shields, describing it as an "inauthentic and insincere, stage-managed occasion". |
| Clegg has two messages to get him through to polling day. He will say his is the only party that can combine social justice and economic efficiency, and the only party trying to hold the centre ground of British politics. He insists that where the party has the infrastructure, it can survive. But he is leaning heavily on the Eastleigh byelection to retain party morale. | Clegg has two messages to get him through to polling day. He will say his is the only party that can combine social justice and economic efficiency, and the only party trying to hold the centre ground of British politics. He insists that where the party has the infrastructure, it can survive. But he is leaning heavily on the Eastleigh byelection to retain party morale. |
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| Labour | Labour |
| Labour probably has the most complex job of explanation. Far from being a One Nation party, it was by lunchtime a One Council party. Its share of the vote, according to the BBC, is up 7% to 20%, but it is behind Ukip, and has not been the repository of voter anger over living standards. Miliband knows there is an anti-politics mood, but is viewed as just as much of an establishment figure as Cameron. | Labour probably has the most complex job of explanation. Far from being a One Nation party, it was by lunchtime a One Council party. Its share of the vote, according to the BBC, is up 7% to 20%, but it is behind Ukip, and has not been the repository of voter anger over living standards. Miliband knows there is an anti-politics mood, but is viewed as just as much of an establishment figure as Cameron. |
| Labour will argue legitimately that county councils have rarely been its natural territory. But it will argue that it is doing well in those very specific areas necessary to secure an overall majority, such as Harlow, Stevenage and Hastings. It won in Derbyshire, made gains in Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire, polled well in St Albans and pushed the Greens back in Norwich. But Ukip is a wildcard for Labour just as much as the Liberal Democrats, and it is too early to calculate whether Ukip, as most forecast, is grabbing votes predominantly from the Tories. | Labour will argue legitimately that county councils have rarely been its natural territory. But it will argue that it is doing well in those very specific areas necessary to secure an overall majority, such as Harlow, Stevenage and Hastings. It won in Derbyshire, made gains in Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire, polled well in St Albans and pushed the Greens back in Norwich. But Ukip is a wildcard for Labour just as much as the Liberal Democrats, and it is too early to calculate whether Ukip, as most forecast, is grabbing votes predominantly from the Tories. |
| Labour needs to look at its style and its policies, and wonder whether it has found the right story on welfare and immigration. It may also have to plunge for a European referendum. At present it says yes to a referendum if there is a further transfer of power to Brussels. Farage sounds like a breath of fresh air in comparison with the stultifying seminar abstractions that emerge from too many shadow cabinet members. | Labour needs to look at its style and its policies, and wonder whether it has found the right story on welfare and immigration. It may also have to plunge for a European referendum. At present it says yes to a referendum if there is a further transfer of power to Brussels. Farage sounds like a breath of fresh air in comparison with the stultifying seminar abstractions that emerge from too many shadow cabinet members. |
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