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David Cameron: Tories will work hard to win back supporters from Ukip David Cameron: Tories will work hard to win back supporters from Ukip
(about 2 hours later)
A contrite David Cameron has promised to show a surging UK Independence party respect after it gained more than 130 seats in the English county elections and polled 25% of the national vote. The result led the party's leader, Nigel Farage to claim the birth of a new and irreversible era of four-party politics. A contrite David Cameron has promised to show a surging UK Independence party respect after it gained more than 130 seats in the English county elections and polled 25% of the national vote. The result led the party's leader, Nigel Farage, to claim the birth of a new and irreversible era of four-party politics.
Cameron, who once described Ukip as fruitcakes and closet racists, admitted his mistake, saying it was no good insulting a political party that people had chosen to vote for: "We need to show respect for people who have taken the choice to support this party. And we're going to work really hard to win them back."Cameron, who once described Ukip as fruitcakes and closet racists, admitted his mistake, saying it was no good insulting a political party that people had chosen to vote for: "We need to show respect for people who have taken the choice to support this party. And we're going to work really hard to win them back."
Farage said the result would send a shockwave through the political elite. "We've been abused by everybody, attacked by the entire establishment, who did their best to stop ordinary decent people from going out and voting Ukip. The establishment has been shocked and stunned," he said. Farage said the result would send a shockwave through the political elite. "We've been abused by everybody, attacked by the entire establishment, who did their best to stop ordinary, decent people from going out and voting Ukip. The establishment has been shocked and stunned," he said.
No 10 was settling on a twin track strategy of hardening its appeal to the right, and subjecting Ukip policies to intense scrutiny over the next two years. But Conservatives have been shifting to the right for the past six months, including on Europe, immigration and welfare and on the basis of these results have apparently not yet found a formula to stop the haemorrhage of support to Ukip. No 10 was settling on a twin-track strategy of hardening its appeal to the right, and subjecting Ukip policies to intense scrutiny over the next two years. But Conservatives have been shifting to the right for the past six months, including on Europe, immigration and welfare, and on the basis of these results have apparently not yet found a formula to stop the haemorrhage of support to Ukip.
In a sign of Ukip's impact, no established party scored over 30% of the vote with a BBC national share of the vote reporting Labour at 29%, Conservative 25%, Ukip 23% and Liberal Democrats 14%. Initial evidence showed Ukip drew most support from socially conservative older working class voters, especially in East Anglia, the south and south west. Bolstering those calls for a harder line, David Davis, once a challenger for the party leadership, has written in the Daily Telegraph that Cameron needs to "break the impression of being privileged and out of touch" and stop surrounding himself with advisers who went to top public schools. Davis also said that the prime minister should bring forward the EU referendum and introduce "serious tax breaks" for married couples.
After all 34 councils had declared, Labour had gained only two – Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire – but said its haul of 294 seats was in line with expectations. It claimed its low overall share of the vote masked the progress made in the 46 target parliamentary seats contested in these elections and which are necessary to secure a large overall majority. The Lib Dems lost 124 seats. Ukip gained 139, the Conservatives lost 335 and Labour were up 219. In a sign of Ukip's impact, no established party scored over 30% of the vote, with the BBC reporting Labour at 29%, Conservative 25%, Ukip 23% and Liberal Democrats 14%. Initial evidence showed that Ukip drew most support from socially conservative, older, working-class voters, especially in East Anglia, the south and south-west.
After 35 councils had declared, Labour had gained only two – Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire – but said its haul of 291 seats gained was in line with expectations. It claimed its low overall share of the vote masked the progress made in the 46 target parliamentary seats contested in these elections and which are necessary to secure a large overall majority. The Lib Dems lost 124 seats. Ukip gained 139, and the Conservatives lost 335.
However, Ukip's effect on the local elections extends further than the 139 seats it won. Analysis by the Guardian's datablog reveals that it split the vote, keeping out hundreds more Tory candidates.However, Ukip's effect on the local elections extends further than the 139 seats it won. Analysis by the Guardian's datablog reveals that it split the vote, keeping out hundreds more Tory candidates.
Labour aides said: "This is Cameron's worst nightmare. He is losing votes to the right, and he is losing votes to us in marginal seats. A four party dynamic works against the Conservatives much more than it works against us". Labour aides said: "This is Cameron's worst nightmare. He is losing votes to the right, and he is losing votes to us in marginal seats. A four-party dynamic works against the Conservatives much more than it works against us."
Miliband conceded there was more work to do, adding he disaffection with politics was his biggest opponent. Miliband conceded that there was more work to do, adding that disaffection with politics was his biggest opponent.
The Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, whose party came sixth in the South Shields byelection, tried to point to the way in which its vote had held up in areas where it has sitting MPs. He said: "The Liberal Democrats are on a journey from a party of protest to a party of government. Where we have MPs setting outside of the story we are holding our own". The Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, whose party came seventh in the South Shields byelection, tried to point to the way in which his party's vote had held up in areas where it has sitting MPs. He said: "The Liberal Democrats are on a journey from a party of protest to a party of government. Where we have MPs setting out our side of the story, we are holding our own."
But one Lib Dem minister, Jeremy Browne, claimed Britain had now entered a permanent period of four-party politics. There were other warnings from defeated Lib Dem candidates such as the former MP Sandra Gidley that Clegg was a major negative on the doorstep. She called for fresh blood. But one Lib Dem minister, Jeremy Browne, claimed Britain had now entered a permanent period of four-party politics. There were other warnings from defeated Lib Dem candidates, such as the former MP Sandra Gidley, that Clegg was a major negative on the doorstep. She called for fresh blood.
The biggest inquest is likely to come on the Conservative side as it tries to assess the best way to repel the Ukip advance, and whether the solution lies in different policies, style or personnel.The biggest inquest is likely to come on the Conservative side as it tries to assess the best way to repel the Ukip advance, and whether the solution lies in different policies, style or personnel.
The Tory right demanded early legislation to guarantee an in-out referendum on Europe after 2015, and hopes for a serious clampdown on benefits for EU migrants in Wednesday's Queen's speech. One defeated Tory council leader, Kay Cutts, the former leader of Nottinghamshire council, said simply: "We want our country back". Michael Gove, the education secretary and one of Cameron's much criticised inner circle, called for calm analysis, saying people support Ukip because they are fed up with the political classes. He told the BBC: "There is a sense sometimes of exasperation with the political classes. We do sometimes seem, the three of us, the pasteurised cheese on the cheeseboard and then Ukip is the rich, ripe stinky alternative and people think: 'Don't mind having a slice of that.' The Tory right demanded early legislation to guarantee an in/out referendum on Europe after 2015, and hopes for a serious clampdown on benefits for EU migrants in Wednesday's Queen's speech. One defeated Tory council leader, Kay Cutts, the former leader of Nottinghamshire council, said simply: "We want our country back."
Michael Gove, the education secretary and one of Cameron's much criticised inner circle, called for calm analysis, saying people support Ukip because they are fed up with the political classes.
He told the BBC: "There is a sense sometimes of exasperation with the political classes. We do sometimes seem, the three of us, the pasteurised cheese on the cheeseboard, and then Ukip is the rich, ripe, stinky alternative, and people think: 'Don't mind having a slice of that.'
"I can understand that. Nigel Farage is a very effective and charismatic figure and he can effectively articulate the anxieties people feel and their exasperation with the political class.""I can understand that. Nigel Farage is a very effective and charismatic figure and he can effectively articulate the anxieties people feel and their exasperation with the political class."
Gove also warned Conservative critics of Cameron that it would be "bonkeroony" to attempt to overthrow the prime minister as the party leadership moved to assert its authority after Ukip's strong showing.Gove also warned Conservative critics of Cameron that it would be "bonkeroony" to attempt to overthrow the prime minister as the party leadership moved to assert its authority after Ukip's strong showing.
He said: "I think that any of my colleagues who want to indulge in leadership speculation should spend the weekend reading the history books and consider if leadership speculation has ever helped any political party to enhance its position with the voters. The idea of changing the leader is bonkeroony."He said: "I think that any of my colleagues who want to indulge in leadership speculation should spend the weekend reading the history books and consider if leadership speculation has ever helped any political party to enhance its position with the voters. The idea of changing the leader is bonkeroony."
One Lib Dem source claimed there was a delicious irony in the way in which Tory tabloid papers had whipped up an anti-EU and anti-immigrant frenzy: the beneficiaries had been Ukip, and the main losers at the next general election will be the Tories. "They have created a monster they can no longer control: the Tories under Cameron have found themselves back to dealing with the same problems as they had in the run up to 1997 over Maastricht." One Lib Dem source claimed there was a delicious irony in the way in which Tory tabloid papers had whipped up an anti-EU and anti-immigrant frenzy: the beneficiaries had been Ukip, and the main losers at the next general election will be the Tories. "They have created a monster they can no longer control; the Tories under Cameron have found themselves back to dealing with the same problems as they had in the runup to 1997 over Maastricht."
The Guardian datablog analysis of results in 20 of the earliest councils to declare their results showed that out of a total of 1,343 council seats across the regions analysed, Ukip picked up a total of 73 seats.The Guardian datablog analysis of results in 20 of the earliest councils to declare their results showed that out of a total of 1,343 council seats across the regions analysed, Ukip picked up a total of 73 seats.
However, in a further 226 seats secured by neither Ukip or the Conservatives, their vote share combined would have been enough to take the seat – meaning the indirect effect of Ukip on the split Tory vote is larger by far than a simple count of the number of council seats won by the Eurosceptic party would suggest. However, in a further 226 seats secured by neither Ukip or the Conservatives, their vote share combined would have been enough to take the seat – meaning the indirect effect of Ukip on the split Tory vote is larger by far than a simple count of the number of council seats won by the Eurosceptic party.
The Guardian analysis of seats also suggests dozens of Lib Dem councillors may owe their seats to the Ukip surge. In Somerset, the Lib Dems managed to keep its number of council seats unchanged, at 18. While Ukip won only three seats in the county, if its vote share had combined with the Conservatives it would have been enough to take 17 more – including a substantial portion of those seats won by the Lib Dems.The Guardian analysis of seats also suggests dozens of Lib Dem councillors may owe their seats to the Ukip surge. In Somerset, the Lib Dems managed to keep its number of council seats unchanged, at 18. While Ukip won only three seats in the county, if its vote share had combined with the Conservatives it would have been enough to take 17 more – including a substantial portion of those seats won by the Lib Dems.
• Additional reporting by James Ball • Additional reporting by James Ball.