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| How can the Tories end their family feud with Ukip? | How can the Tories end their family feud with Ukip? |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| David Cameron gave a hint, never properly fleshed out, during an interview this week that one of his close relatives is a supporter of the UK Independence party. The remark was seized on by political chatterers, delighted by the prospect of a prime ministerial version of an earlier story involving Priti Patel, a Conservative MP whose father was a Ukip candidate in Hertfordshire – until he appeared to withdraw, presumably under some heavy filial pressure, before unwithdrawing 90 minutes later. Both stories struck a chord because they spoke to a larger truth about the Ukip phenomenon: that this is a family feud on the right, a split in the conservative clan that could prove lethal for their shared cause. | David Cameron gave a hint, never properly fleshed out, during an interview this week that one of his close relatives is a supporter of the UK Independence party. The remark was seized on by political chatterers, delighted by the prospect of a prime ministerial version of an earlier story involving Priti Patel, a Conservative MP whose father was a Ukip candidate in Hertfordshire – until he appeared to withdraw, presumably under some heavy filial pressure, before unwithdrawing 90 minutes later. Both stories struck a chord because they spoke to a larger truth about the Ukip phenomenon: that this is a family feud on the right, a split in the conservative clan that could prove lethal for their shared cause. |
| At the very least, Ukip's success when the votes were counted yesterday – bagging more than a quarter of ballots cast and winning 139 councillors, to go with a silver medal in the South Shields byelection, where they pushed the Tories into third place – has brought into the open what has been an internal Conservative argument since 2005. | |
| Now, in plain view, are two theories for how the right can win in Britain. The first says the answer is to hug a hoodie, a huskie and the centre ground; to ape Tony Blair and modernise. But Ukip is presenting a frontal challenge to that Cameron project, insisting on a traditional conservative message on welfare, immigration, tax, defence and, though much less important than widely thought, Europe. | Now, in plain view, are two theories for how the right can win in Britain. The first says the answer is to hug a hoodie, a huskie and the centre ground; to ape Tony Blair and modernise. But Ukip is presenting a frontal challenge to that Cameron project, insisting on a traditional conservative message on welfare, immigration, tax, defence and, though much less important than widely thought, Europe. |
| Viewed like this, Ukip's success stands as a rebuke to the Cameroons and also a statement of the obvious: if the Conservatives reinvented themselves as the party of international aid and gay marriage then a breakaway group offering a traditional Tory diet, heavy on the red meat, was bound to fill the gap. | Viewed like this, Ukip's success stands as a rebuke to the Cameroons and also a statement of the obvious: if the Conservatives reinvented themselves as the party of international aid and gay marriage then a breakaway group offering a traditional Tory diet, heavy on the red meat, was bound to fill the gap. |
| For a while, plenty of Conservatives tried to convince themselves that such a group would appeal only to the right's wilder fringe, those identified by the late backbench maverick Eric Forth , who once declared: "There are millions of people in this country who are white, Anglo-Saxon and bigoted, and they need to be represented." | For a while, plenty of Conservatives tried to convince themselves that such a group would appeal only to the right's wilder fringe, those identified by the late backbench maverick Eric Forth , who once declared: "There are millions of people in this country who are white, Anglo-Saxon and bigoted, and they need to be represented." |
| But when Ukip can claim the backing of one in four voters, that kind of dismissal is no longer available. The pressing question now for the Tories, and for British politics, is: can the Ukip surge last? Most believe the party will peak at next year's European elections, where the temptation to show two, Farage-shaped fingers to Brussels will be irresistible. What matters more is whether Ukip can stay strong all the way till 2015. If you're a Tory, that is the point at which the Faragiste army could do serious damage. | But when Ukip can claim the backing of one in four voters, that kind of dismissal is no longer available. The pressing question now for the Tories, and for British politics, is: can the Ukip surge last? Most believe the party will peak at next year's European elections, where the temptation to show two, Farage-shaped fingers to Brussels will be irresistible. What matters more is whether Ukip can stay strong all the way till 2015. If you're a Tory, that is the point at which the Faragiste army could do serious damage. |
| The precedent was voiced explicitly by the Ukip leader when he spelled out the three letters burned into the hearts of Labour veterans of the 1980s and which should now chill the blood of Conservatives: SDP. The Social Democratic party surged 30-plus years ago. Like Ukip – which uniquely polled above 20% in both South Shields and February's byelection in Eastleigh, a feat not matched by any of the three main parties – they proved able to win in the Labour north and Tory south. The SDP did not form a government, but they did shape one. Indeed they shaped at least two, by splitting the anti-Conservative vote and keeping the Tories in office. Cameron's fear is that by splitting the anti-Labour vote, Ukip could do to him in 2015 what the SDP did to Foot and Kinnock in 1983 and 1987. | The precedent was voiced explicitly by the Ukip leader when he spelled out the three letters burned into the hearts of Labour veterans of the 1980s and which should now chill the blood of Conservatives: SDP. The Social Democratic party surged 30-plus years ago. Like Ukip – which uniquely polled above 20% in both South Shields and February's byelection in Eastleigh, a feat not matched by any of the three main parties – they proved able to win in the Labour north and Tory south. The SDP did not form a government, but they did shape one. Indeed they shaped at least two, by splitting the anti-Conservative vote and keeping the Tories in office. Cameron's fear is that by splitting the anti-Labour vote, Ukip could do to him in 2015 what the SDP did to Foot and Kinnock in 1983 and 1987. |
| How should he respond to this threat? His first reaction was on display yesterday: no more insults. There'll be no talk of fruitcakes, closet racists or clowns now – for fear it will be understood as an attack not on Farage but on the quarter of the nation that backs him. The party will be shown courtesy, lest its supporters be alienated any further. | How should he respond to this threat? His first reaction was on display yesterday: no more insults. There'll be no talk of fruitcakes, closet racists or clowns now – for fear it will be understood as an attack not on Farage but on the quarter of the nation that backs him. The party will be shown courtesy, lest its supporters be alienated any further. |
| On the substance, there's a noisy faction, out in force today, that believes imitation is the best form of defence. Their remedy to the Ukip threat is to be like Ukip, to chuck out all that compassionate conservatism nonsense and replace it with harder positions on social security, immigration and Europe.By way of example, the council votes were barely counted when John Redwood demanded the in/out EU referendum be brought forward, to a date before 2015. | On the substance, there's a noisy faction, out in force today, that believes imitation is the best form of defence. Their remedy to the Ukip threat is to be like Ukip, to chuck out all that compassionate conservatism nonsense and replace it with harder positions on social security, immigration and Europe.By way of example, the council votes were barely counted when John Redwood demanded the in/out EU referendum be brought forward, to a date before 2015. |
| The trouble is, such moves are unlikely to work. For one thing, they simply strengthen Ukip, by showing that Farage's party is setting the agenda. For another, any concession will never be enough: tack right and Ukip will demand you go further. Besides, if people want Ukip policy, why would they vote for the inauthentic copy when they could have the real thing? No, the more respectful approach to Ukip is to recognise that it is about more than just a few policy positions. It is articulating a broader rage against what Farage referred to yesterday as the "establishment", the political class that goes beyond the Tory party and which includes those who have run the country for the last two decades or more, those who have presided over the drift to Brussels and mass immigration, yes, but also about declining living standards, the MPs' expenses scandal and runaway bankers' pay. | The trouble is, such moves are unlikely to work. For one thing, they simply strengthen Ukip, by showing that Farage's party is setting the agenda. For another, any concession will never be enough: tack right and Ukip will demand you go further. Besides, if people want Ukip policy, why would they vote for the inauthentic copy when they could have the real thing? No, the more respectful approach to Ukip is to recognise that it is about more than just a few policy positions. It is articulating a broader rage against what Farage referred to yesterday as the "establishment", the political class that goes beyond the Tory party and which includes those who have run the country for the last two decades or more, those who have presided over the drift to Brussels and mass immigration, yes, but also about declining living standards, the MPs' expenses scandal and runaway bankers' pay. |
| This kind of fury is not confined to these shores, but present in Europe and beyond, whether articulated by Beppe Grillo in Italy or Syriza in Greece. Indeed, it's an irony that it should fall to the least internationalist of parties – Ukip – to be the British face of a truly international phenomenon. | This kind of fury is not confined to these shores, but present in Europe and beyond, whether articulated by Beppe Grillo in Italy or Syriza in Greece. Indeed, it's an irony that it should fall to the least internationalist of parties – Ukip – to be the British face of a truly international phenomenon. |
| It is not only the Tories who have to respond to this attack on politics-as-usual. All parties will have to strive to present themselves as outside the metroplitan elite, with its incestuous, dynastic politics and cronyism. Labour believes it held up its vote in South Shields partly because it had an authentically local candidate, rather than an apparachik, air-dropped from London. "The days of the parachute are very nearly over," says one senior figure. | It is not only the Tories who have to respond to this attack on politics-as-usual. All parties will have to strive to present themselves as outside the metroplitan elite, with its incestuous, dynastic politics and cronyism. Labour believes it held up its vote in South Shields partly because it had an authentically local candidate, rather than an apparachik, air-dropped from London. "The days of the parachute are very nearly over," says one senior figure. |
| But change will have to go deeper. Ukip's appeal won't be blunted by a policy change here or there, because it is voicing something less concrete – a nostalgic desire to halt the changes of recent years, to turn the clock back to an imagined gentler past. Such a message appeals, says pollster and former Tory strategist Rick Nye, only if people feel they have "an insufficient stake in the present and future". | But change will have to go deeper. Ukip's appeal won't be blunted by a policy change here or there, because it is voicing something less concrete – a nostalgic desire to halt the changes of recent years, to turn the clock back to an imagined gentler past. Such a message appeals, says pollster and former Tory strategist Rick Nye, only if people feel they have "an insufficient stake in the present and future". |
| Give them that stake – by improving, say, living standards, growth and public services – and the lure of Farage's golden age romanticism will wane. In this way,Ukip's rise is not the cause of Tory woes, but merely their symptom. Throwing them a bone on Europe or migrants won't fool them or their supporters. They want something much bigger than that – and they won't go away till they get it. | Give them that stake – by improving, say, living standards, growth and public services – and the lure of Farage's golden age romanticism will wane. In this way,Ukip's rise is not the cause of Tory woes, but merely their symptom. Throwing them a bone on Europe or migrants won't fool them or their supporters. They want something much bigger than that – and they won't go away till they get it. |
| Twitter: @j_freedland | Twitter: @j_freedland |