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Local elections: Ukip surge gives all parties cause for concern Local elections: Ukip surge gives all parties cause for concern
(5 months later)
On Friday, Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, grinned broadly as he celebrated what he called the birth of a new era of four-party politics. His party took a quarter of the national vote in the county council elections and has done well in the Eastleigh and South Shields byelections. Farage believes the results will have a seismic impact on the political elite. "The establishment has been shocked and stunned," he said with relish. Last week, it was the Tory shires that bore the brunt; next year, Labour's city councils may be under threat and the prediction is that Ukip will reign supreme in the European elections. No wonder Nigel is smiling. All three party leaders have profound cause for concern. Whether Ukip's attraction is temporary or longer lasting and robust enough to suck up votes in the 2015 general election, mainstream politics has been called to account and found seriously wanting.On Friday, Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, grinned broadly as he celebrated what he called the birth of a new era of four-party politics. His party took a quarter of the national vote in the county council elections and has done well in the Eastleigh and South Shields byelections. Farage believes the results will have a seismic impact on the political elite. "The establishment has been shocked and stunned," he said with relish. Last week, it was the Tory shires that bore the brunt; next year, Labour's city councils may be under threat and the prediction is that Ukip will reign supreme in the European elections. No wonder Nigel is smiling. All three party leaders have profound cause for concern. Whether Ukip's attraction is temporary or longer lasting and robust enough to suck up votes in the 2015 general election, mainstream politics has been called to account and found seriously wanting.
David Cameron has responded speedily. He is reported to have promised to back a private members' bill (to circumvent Lib-Dem opposition) in the next session of parliament to ensure that a referendum on EU membership is held after the next general election. He has also said that the Queen's speech on Wednesday will address welfare and immigration, ahead of the lifting of transnational controls on citizens from Romania and Bulgaria next year. Announcements on prison conditions and welfare changes in recent months have signalled a shift to the right but some Tory backbenchers, out of sorts with Cameron's modernisation agenda highlighting issues such as gay marriage, are demanding far more. If a Conservative party won't deliver Conservative policies then Ukip is the answer, they opine. However, moving to the right might woo lost Tory votes but since it is the centre that wins general elections, Cameron risks winning a battle while losing the war.David Cameron has responded speedily. He is reported to have promised to back a private members' bill (to circumvent Lib-Dem opposition) in the next session of parliament to ensure that a referendum on EU membership is held after the next general election. He has also said that the Queen's speech on Wednesday will address welfare and immigration, ahead of the lifting of transnational controls on citizens from Romania and Bulgaria next year. Announcements on prison conditions and welfare changes in recent months have signalled a shift to the right but some Tory backbenchers, out of sorts with Cameron's modernisation agenda highlighting issues such as gay marriage, are demanding far more. If a Conservative party won't deliver Conservative policies then Ukip is the answer, they opine. However, moving to the right might woo lost Tory votes but since it is the centre that wins general elections, Cameron risks winning a battle while losing the war.
In contrast, the outlook for the Lib Dems at Westminster, at least, is not as bleak as it appeared to be just a few months ago. Two-thirds of its MPs are in constituencies in which the Tories came second. In present circumstances, Ukip will split this vote, giving the Lib Dems some security and perhaps encouraging the prospect of a Lib Dem-Lab coalition. Nick Clegg's party no longer attracts the protest vote, but it is likely to retain its foothold in parliament and power. As Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president, notoriously said, his members are like "cockroaches". Once in the House, they are notoriously difficult to remove.In contrast, the outlook for the Lib Dems at Westminster, at least, is not as bleak as it appeared to be just a few months ago. Two-thirds of its MPs are in constituencies in which the Tories came second. In present circumstances, Ukip will split this vote, giving the Lib Dems some security and perhaps encouraging the prospect of a Lib Dem-Lab coalition. Nick Clegg's party no longer attracts the protest vote, but it is likely to retain its foothold in parliament and power. As Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president, notoriously said, his members are like "cockroaches". Once in the House, they are notoriously difficult to remove.
The impact of Ukip on Labour's electoral chances, however, may not be nearly so benign. The Ukip surge is a warning. Immediate analysis indicates that two groups, in the main, have been swayed by Farage. They are the less qualified, working-class, older male and the lower middle class who are very squeezed indeed. Traditionally, the former group would have voted Labour. Since the 1980s, according to Ben Page of Ipsos-Mori, that allegiance has been under pressure, opening up a fissure, which Ukip can easily widen, threatening Labour seats in its heartlands. So what is Labour to do?The impact of Ukip on Labour's electoral chances, however, may not be nearly so benign. The Ukip surge is a warning. Immediate analysis indicates that two groups, in the main, have been swayed by Farage. They are the less qualified, working-class, older male and the lower middle class who are very squeezed indeed. Traditionally, the former group would have voted Labour. Since the 1980s, according to Ben Page of Ipsos-Mori, that allegiance has been under pressure, opening up a fissure, which Ukip can easily widen, threatening Labour seats in its heartlands. So what is Labour to do?
It needs urgently to address the profound democratic disconnection that Ukip's success has exposed – a disconnection that is a major challenge for all three main parties. Ukip's rise undoubtedly has much to do with Farage himself. Public school-educated, time in the City, affluent and affable, he, like Boris, has turned being "off message" into an electoral asset. For many, he has authenticity because he appears a man of the people.It needs urgently to address the profound democratic disconnection that Ukip's success has exposed – a disconnection that is a major challenge for all three main parties. Ukip's rise undoubtedly has much to do with Farage himself. Public school-educated, time in the City, affluent and affable, he, like Boris, has turned being "off message" into an electoral asset. For many, he has authenticity because he appears a man of the people.
Farage's common touch has an impact on Ed Miliband too. He has embarked on a brave and much needed enterprise – to build a fairer social contract that responds to concerns about immigration and delivers growth and prosperity for all. The mechanics of how such a contract is constructed and costed is one issue; another is Miliband's need to develop a more populist touch.Farage's common touch has an impact on Ed Miliband too. He has embarked on a brave and much needed enterprise – to build a fairer social contract that responds to concerns about immigration and delivers growth and prosperity for all. The mechanics of how such a contract is constructed and costed is one issue; another is Miliband's need to develop a more populist touch.
Another example of the disconnect in action is the dismissal by many politicians and commentators of Ukip's rise as the consequence of a temporary protest vote. For many voters, the party's policies matter a great deal, albeit a number are already becoming unstitched. The immigration cap of 50,000 a year is under revision, for instance. But on other issues, Farage is clear about his goals, if not about the means to achieve them. He has said he will oversee the UK's withdrawal from the EU, increase defence spending by 40%, install smoking rooms in pubs, bring back grammar schools and cut taxes. The price tag is elusive. Critics say his aim is a mythical Britain of the 1950s reclaimed.Another example of the disconnect in action is the dismissal by many politicians and commentators of Ukip's rise as the consequence of a temporary protest vote. For many voters, the party's policies matter a great deal, albeit a number are already becoming unstitched. The immigration cap of 50,000 a year is under revision, for instance. But on other issues, Farage is clear about his goals, if not about the means to achieve them. He has said he will oversee the UK's withdrawal from the EU, increase defence spending by 40%, install smoking rooms in pubs, bring back grammar schools and cut taxes. The price tag is elusive. Critics say his aim is a mythical Britain of the 1950s reclaimed.
A more constructive criticism would focus less on Ukip – its inconsistencies will reveal themselves in due course – and more on the failings of the main parties whose perceived arrogance has encouraged the populist right to flourish. For years, polls have registered voters' escalating disillusionment – witnessed again in Thursday's low turnout. They look at their own community and see diversity, whether welcome or otherwise. They look at Westminster and see a largely white, male, middle-class set of career politicians. Trust has evaporated. As in Europe as a whole, the political class is deemed to have presided over an economic disaster that threatens the livelihoods and futures of millions. Insecurity is rife, exacerbated by the cuts.A more constructive criticism would focus less on Ukip – its inconsistencies will reveal themselves in due course – and more on the failings of the main parties whose perceived arrogance has encouraged the populist right to flourish. For years, polls have registered voters' escalating disillusionment – witnessed again in Thursday's low turnout. They look at their own community and see diversity, whether welcome or otherwise. They look at Westminster and see a largely white, male, middle-class set of career politicians. Trust has evaporated. As in Europe as a whole, the political class is deemed to have presided over an economic disaster that threatens the livelihoods and futures of millions. Insecurity is rife, exacerbated by the cuts.
In 2011, Joe Hayman spent three months interviewing a thousand people across the UK and in British Voices, published last year, he captured what the surveys tell us. Large numbers of Britons feel isolated and alienated. Voter apathy is high while belief in the integrity and competence of politicians is low. Populist parties across Europe range from moderate to extreme radical right, but what they share in common, as Anthony Painter describes in a paper for the thinktank Policy Network, is an anti-elite determination to be "brand changers", to reshape the way democracy functions and the issues it prioritises. Ukip has little doctrine, a jalopy of a manifesto – its powerful attraction is its "us" against "them" ethos. Unless Labour, Lib Dem and Conservatives respond to the warnings, Farage will be moulding their futures.In 2011, Joe Hayman spent three months interviewing a thousand people across the UK and in British Voices, published last year, he captured what the surveys tell us. Large numbers of Britons feel isolated and alienated. Voter apathy is high while belief in the integrity and competence of politicians is low. Populist parties across Europe range from moderate to extreme radical right, but what they share in common, as Anthony Painter describes in a paper for the thinktank Policy Network, is an anti-elite determination to be "brand changers", to reshape the way democracy functions and the issues it prioritises. Ukip has little doctrine, a jalopy of a manifesto – its powerful attraction is its "us" against "them" ethos. Unless Labour, Lib Dem and Conservatives respond to the warnings, Farage will be moulding their futures.
Something fundamental is at stake. Farage's stated aim is to move politics significantly to the right but retain Ukip's identity as the true voice of the centre ground: a potentially harmful strategy for sound civic health. It is imperative that the three main parties work to find credible, just and innovative ways to reconnect parliament and the people.Something fundamental is at stake. Farage's stated aim is to move politics significantly to the right but retain Ukip's identity as the true voice of the centre ground: a potentially harmful strategy for sound civic health. It is imperative that the three main parties work to find credible, just and innovative ways to reconnect parliament and the people.
"We get it," Tory chairman Grant Shapps said following Thursday's vote. Ukip is right to believe that, as yet, they don't."We get it," Tory chairman Grant Shapps said following Thursday's vote. Ukip is right to believe that, as yet, they don't.
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