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Airstrikes in Syria Tied to Israel May Be Message to Iranians Airstrikes Tied to Israel May Be Message to Iranians
(35 minutes later)
JERUSALEM — The twin airstrikes in Damascus on Friday and Sunday attributed to Israel appear to be more about Jerusalem’s broad, mostly covert battle with Iran and Hezbollah than about the bloody civil war raging in Syria.JERUSALEM — The twin airstrikes in Damascus on Friday and Sunday attributed to Israel appear to be more about Jerusalem’s broad, mostly covert battle with Iran and Hezbollah than about the bloody civil war raging in Syria.
Despite intensifying concern over the future of Syria, Israeli political and military leaders steadfastly maintain that they have no interest in entangling themselves in their neighbor’s conflict. But the airstrikes on military warehouses and other military installations underscore their determination to prevent advanced weapons from falling into the hands of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia allied with Iran.Despite intensifying concern over the future of Syria, Israeli political and military leaders steadfastly maintain that they have no interest in entangling themselves in their neighbor’s conflict. But the airstrikes on military warehouses and other military installations underscore their determination to prevent advanced weapons from falling into the hands of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia allied with Iran.
The increased frequency and intensity of the attacks also demonstrates Israel’s desire to take advantage of the chaotic situation, security experts say, as well as its calculation that Syria, Hezbollah and Iran are too preoccupied and weakened by the raging conflict in Syria to retaliate strongly against even a brazen escalation.The increased frequency and intensity of the attacks also demonstrates Israel’s desire to take advantage of the chaotic situation, security experts say, as well as its calculation that Syria, Hezbollah and Iran are too preoccupied and weakened by the raging conflict in Syria to retaliate strongly against even a brazen escalation.
But several warned there was a risk of Israeli overreach, particularly given the fiery rhetoric with which Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah responded, a stark contrast to the silence that greeted some earlier attacks.But several warned there was a risk of Israeli overreach, particularly given the fiery rhetoric with which Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah responded, a stark contrast to the silence that greeted some earlier attacks.
“The real question is how much humble pie can Assad eat and still keep his svelte figure,” said Nathan Thrall, a Jerusalem-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, speaking of the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. “The risks of action in Israel’s perception are lower today than they have been in the past. Everybody’s now testing each other and gauging what each one can get away with.”“The real question is how much humble pie can Assad eat and still keep his svelte figure,” said Nathan Thrall, a Jerusalem-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, speaking of the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. “The risks of action in Israel’s perception are lower today than they have been in the past. Everybody’s now testing each other and gauging what each one can get away with.”
Analysts said they did not see the airstrikes as the opening of a new war front, or as an attempt to prop up the Syrian rebels against the Syrian government of Mr. Assad. Rather, they tended to see it more as an extension of the long-running “shadow war” against Iran and Hezbollah, a tit-for-tat of terror attacks and assassinations that has stretched over decades and around the world.Analysts said they did not see the airstrikes as the opening of a new war front, or as an attempt to prop up the Syrian rebels against the Syrian government of Mr. Assad. Rather, they tended to see it more as an extension of the long-running “shadow war” against Iran and Hezbollah, a tit-for-tat of terror attacks and assassinations that has stretched over decades and around the world.
“This shouldn’t be seen as Israel intervening on behalf of the rebels or against Bashar,” said Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzilya. “This is an escalation in a conflict we know about, and that is the conflict between Israel and Iran.”“This shouldn’t be seen as Israel intervening on behalf of the rebels or against Bashar,” said Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzilya. “This is an escalation in a conflict we know about, and that is the conflict between Israel and Iran.”
Israeli officials contacted in the prime minister’s office, military command and defense and foreign ministries refused to discuss the strikes on Sunday, strictly following a protocol designed to give adversaries face-saving room to avoid a response. But wire services cited anonymous Israeli sources who confirmed Israel’s responsibility.Israeli officials contacted in the prime minister’s office, military command and defense and foreign ministries refused to discuss the strikes on Sunday, strictly following a protocol designed to give adversaries face-saving room to avoid a response. But wire services cited anonymous Israeli sources who confirmed Israel’s responsibility.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Sunday night for a six-day mission to China, which many interpreted as a sign that Israel did not plan to step up its campaign in coming days — or expect a serious attack.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Sunday night for a six-day mission to China, which many interpreted as a sign that Israel did not plan to step up its campaign in coming days — or expect a serious attack.
But Mr. Netanyahu delayed his departure for two hours to meet with his security cabinet, as Israel deployed two Iron Dome missile-defense batteries around northern cities and restricted civilian flights in its northern airspace. Israeli news organizations also reported that the security-alert level was heightened at Israel’s diplomatic missions around the world and that requests for gas masks had quadrupled since the strikes.But Mr. Netanyahu delayed his departure for two hours to meet with his security cabinet, as Israel deployed two Iron Dome missile-defense batteries around northern cities and restricted civilian flights in its northern airspace. Israeli news organizations also reported that the security-alert level was heightened at Israel’s diplomatic missions around the world and that requests for gas masks had quadrupled since the strikes.
“The state of Israel is protecting its interests and will continue doing so,” Danny Danon, the deputy defense minister, said on Army Radio on Sunday. “We will do everything, anywhere in order to protect those interests.”“The state of Israel is protecting its interests and will continue doing so,” Danny Danon, the deputy defense minister, said on Army Radio on Sunday. “We will do everything, anywhere in order to protect those interests.”
In apparently targeting weapons warehouses and shipments bound for Lebanon, Israel did exactly what it has been promising since the war began. The back-to-back strikes made an emphatic statement that Israel’s red lines were real, even as the Obama administration debates how to respond to the use of chemical weapons that President Obama had described as a “game-changer” that could trigger American intervention.In apparently targeting weapons warehouses and shipments bound for Lebanon, Israel did exactly what it has been promising since the war began. The back-to-back strikes made an emphatic statement that Israel’s red lines were real, even as the Obama administration debates how to respond to the use of chemical weapons that President Obama had described as a “game-changer” that could trigger American intervention.
Israel may be banking on the idea that Hezbollah is saving its Iranian-provided firepower to attack Israel in retaliation for any Israeli or United States attack on the Iranian nuclear program.Israel may be banking on the idea that Hezbollah is saving its Iranian-provided firepower to attack Israel in retaliation for any Israeli or United States attack on the Iranian nuclear program.
But the circumstances on the ground in Syria have shifted considerably since Israel’s January attack on a convoy of Russian SA-17 surface-to-air missiles, so these strikes may have wider implications for the civil war and beyond.But the circumstances on the ground in Syria have shifted considerably since Israel’s January attack on a convoy of Russian SA-17 surface-to-air missiles, so these strikes may have wider implications for the civil war and beyond.
“This is the kind of thing you know how it begins but not how it ends,” said Eyal Zisser, an expert on Syria and Lebanon at Tel Aviv University. “Israel is still not involved in the war in Syria,” he added, “but it is getting closer.”“This is the kind of thing you know how it begins but not how it ends,” said Eyal Zisser, an expert on Syria and Lebanon at Tel Aviv University. “Israel is still not involved in the war in Syria,” he added, “but it is getting closer.”
Israel and Syria have been in a mostly silent standoff for decades, technically at war but maintaining an uneasy peace along their 43-mile border. A far more significant foe is Hezbollah, Israel’s opponent in a 34-day air-and-ground battle in 2006 that was widely deemed a failure. Determined not to repeat those mistakes, the Israeli Army has been preparing for what it sees as an inevitable next round in Lebanon, including a huge surprise drill last week in which 2,000 reservists were summoned to Israel’s north.Israel and Syria have been in a mostly silent standoff for decades, technically at war but maintaining an uneasy peace along their 43-mile border. A far more significant foe is Hezbollah, Israel’s opponent in a 34-day air-and-ground battle in 2006 that was widely deemed a failure. Determined not to repeat those mistakes, the Israeli Army has been preparing for what it sees as an inevitable next round in Lebanon, including a huge surprise drill last week in which 2,000 reservists were summoned to Israel’s north.
“There hasn’t been a week in the last several months that didn’t deal with something that might take us to a place of escalation and a war that comes from there,” a top general said in a recent interview, speaking on the condition of anonymity, following military protocol. “We are trying to be as responsible as we can, to limit the use of force as much as we can, but we live in a neighborhood where it’s needed.”“There hasn’t been a week in the last several months that didn’t deal with something that might take us to a place of escalation and a war that comes from there,” a top general said in a recent interview, speaking on the condition of anonymity, following military protocol. “We are trying to be as responsible as we can, to limit the use of force as much as we can, but we live in a neighborhood where it’s needed.”
As Mr. Assad’s grip on Syria has loosened in the last year, Israeli fears have mounted that he would become increasingly dependent on Iran and Hezbollah while controlling a shrinking piece of territory, with the rest of the country in the hands of jihadists and other groups Israel feels less confident of containing.As Mr. Assad’s grip on Syria has loosened in the last year, Israeli fears have mounted that he would become increasingly dependent on Iran and Hezbollah while controlling a shrinking piece of territory, with the rest of the country in the hands of jihadists and other groups Israel feels less confident of containing.
Emile Hokayem, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that the timing of the attacks suggested that the Israelis had seen a confluence of “operational necessity and strategic convenience.”Emile Hokayem, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that the timing of the attacks suggested that the Israelis had seen a confluence of “operational necessity and strategic convenience.”
“The strike sends a clear message to Hezbollah and Iran that we know you have these capabilities and we’ll go after you if you try to change the military balance,” Mr. Hokayem said. “It adds clarity, where the American dithering over chemical weapons added confusion.”“The strike sends a clear message to Hezbollah and Iran that we know you have these capabilities and we’ll go after you if you try to change the military balance,” Mr. Hokayem said. “It adds clarity, where the American dithering over chemical weapons added confusion.”
Ehud Yaari, an Arab affairs analyst for Israel’s Channel 2 news and a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Sunday that all the targets in Damascus were Hezbollah-controlled (though reports from the ground indicate that as many as 100 Syrian soldiers were killed, perhaps inadvertently). That underscored the view that these strikes were part of the shadow war with Iran and Hezbollah.Ehud Yaari, an Arab affairs analyst for Israel’s Channel 2 news and a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Sunday that all the targets in Damascus were Hezbollah-controlled (though reports from the ground indicate that as many as 100 Syrian soldiers were killed, perhaps inadvertently). That underscored the view that these strikes were part of the shadow war with Iran and Hezbollah.
Michael Herzog, a retired brigadier general and former chief of staff to Israel’s minister of defense, said response to the airstrikes is more likely to come in the form of a bombing of Israeli interests abroad than missiles fired at Tel Aviv from the north. Moshe Maoz, a Hebrew University professor of Middle Eastern Studies, said Iran was now the crucial actor regarding what might happen next.Michael Herzog, a retired brigadier general and former chief of staff to Israel’s minister of defense, said response to the airstrikes is more likely to come in the form of a bombing of Israeli interests abroad than missiles fired at Tel Aviv from the north. Moshe Maoz, a Hebrew University professor of Middle Eastern Studies, said Iran was now the crucial actor regarding what might happen next.
“Israel may be testing Iran,” Professor Maoz said. “Iran is the key. If Hezbollah gets a green light from Iran to retaliate, or if Syria does, Israel won’t be idle. It could lead to a regional war.”“Israel may be testing Iran,” Professor Maoz said. “Iran is the key. If Hezbollah gets a green light from Iran to retaliate, or if Syria does, Israel won’t be idle. It could lead to a regional war.”

Kareem Fahim contributed reporting from Cairo.

Kareem Fahim contributed reporting from Cairo.