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Barack Obama is running out of time to end Middle East dithering Barack Obama is running out of time to end Middle East dithering
(5 months later)
Pressure is growing in the US for Barack Obama to end his dithering on Syria and reassert American leadership in the Middle East, a region that, to western eyes, appears to grow more chaotic and more menacing by the day.Pressure is growing in the US for Barack Obama to end his dithering on Syria and reassert American leadership in the Middle East, a region that, to western eyes, appears to grow more chaotic and more menacing by the day.
The weekend's dramatic Israeli air strikes around Damascus, reportedly targeting missiles earmarked for Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, have shone a light on Obama's shilly-shallying. "When Israel draws a red line, it means it," said conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin.The weekend's dramatic Israeli air strikes around Damascus, reportedly targeting missiles earmarked for Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, have shone a light on Obama's shilly-shallying. "When Israel draws a red line, it means it," said conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin.
"Not only does the Israeli action contrast with the US government's fecklessness, but it also raises the issue of whether the US would prefer Israel [to] police the Middle East. It is unbecoming for a superpower to let little Israel take on the Iranian surrogates. It will likely unnerve our allies elsewhere and embolden foes in other parts of the world.""Not only does the Israeli action contrast with the US government's fecklessness, but it also raises the issue of whether the US would prefer Israel [to] police the Middle East. It is unbecoming for a superpower to let little Israel take on the Iranian surrogates. It will likely unnerve our allies elsewhere and embolden foes in other parts of the world."
Rubin's crack about "red lines" refers to Obama's warning last August about the consequences of chemical weapons being used by Bashar al-Assad's regime. Since then, there has been a large number of reports, and a small amount of hard evidence, suggesting Assad is doing exactly that. UN investigator Carla del Ponte's uncomfortably off-message claim that the rebels may have reciprocated strengthened the impression that the anarchic Syrian crisis is becoming uncontainable.Rubin's crack about "red lines" refers to Obama's warning last August about the consequences of chemical weapons being used by Bashar al-Assad's regime. Since then, there has been a large number of reports, and a small amount of hard evidence, suggesting Assad is doing exactly that. UN investigator Carla del Ponte's uncomfortably off-message claim that the rebels may have reciprocated strengthened the impression that the anarchic Syrian crisis is becoming uncontainable.
Friends and political supporters, not just rightwing critics, are still waiting to see what Obama's threat actually means, if anything at all. While American public opinion mostly remains opposed to intervention, unease about a do-nothing US policy vacuum is extending beyond Syria to encompass Obama's insouciance in the face of Egypt's stumbling democratic revolution, the nuclear stand-off with Iran, and the Israel-Palestine impasse.Friends and political supporters, not just rightwing critics, are still waiting to see what Obama's threat actually means, if anything at all. While American public opinion mostly remains opposed to intervention, unease about a do-nothing US policy vacuum is extending beyond Syria to encompass Obama's insouciance in the face of Egypt's stumbling democratic revolution, the nuclear stand-off with Iran, and the Israel-Palestine impasse.
The US leader "now finds himself in a geopolitical box, his credibility at stake with frustratingly few good options", said veteran Washington reporter Peter Baker.The US leader "now finds himself in a geopolitical box, his credibility at stake with frustratingly few good options", said veteran Washington reporter Peter Baker.
When he spoke about red lines in Syria, "Obama was thinking of a chemical attack that would cause mass fatalities, not relatively small-scale episodes like those now being investigated, except the 'nuance got completely dropped'. As a result, the president seems to be moving closer to providing lethal assistance to the Syrian rebels, even though he rejected such a policy just months ago."When he spoke about red lines in Syria, "Obama was thinking of a chemical attack that would cause mass fatalities, not relatively small-scale episodes like those now being investigated, except the 'nuance got completely dropped'. As a result, the president seems to be moving closer to providing lethal assistance to the Syrian rebels, even though he rejected such a policy just months ago."
Obama's hands-off approach was forged in the furnaces of Iraq and Afghanistan, calamitous military interventions he has vowed not to repeat. But Syria is not Iraq, argued former New York Times editor Bill Keller in a weekend op-ed.Obama's hands-off approach was forged in the furnaces of Iraq and Afghanistan, calamitous military interventions he has vowed not to repeat. But Syria is not Iraq, argued former New York Times editor Bill Keller in a weekend op-ed.
"Of course, there are important lessons to be drawn from our sad experience in Iraq … But in Syria, I fear prudence has become fatalism, and our caution has been the father of missed opportunities, diminished credibility and enlarged tragedy."Of course, there are important lessons to be drawn from our sad experience in Iraq … But in Syria, I fear prudence has become fatalism, and our caution has been the father of missed opportunities, diminished credibility and enlarged tragedy.
"The United States has supplied humanitarian aid and diplomatic pressure. But our reluctance to arm the rebels or defend the civilians being slaughtered in their homes has convinced the Assad regime (and the world) that we are not serious.""The United States has supplied humanitarian aid and diplomatic pressure. But our reluctance to arm the rebels or defend the civilians being slaughtered in their homes has convinced the Assad regime (and the world) that we are not serious."
This and similar recent broadsides from normally pro-Obama liberals led American Interest blogger Walter Russell Mead to conclude the president was out of time on Syria. Until now Obama had enjoyed a relatively easy ride on foreign policy, he said, mainly because he wasn't George W Bush. But this was changing.This and similar recent broadsides from normally pro-Obama liberals led American Interest blogger Walter Russell Mead to conclude the president was out of time on Syria. Until now Obama had enjoyed a relatively easy ride on foreign policy, he said, mainly because he wasn't George W Bush. But this was changing.
"As Syria burns and Egypt seethes, the biggest foreign policy story is unfolding right here at home. The establishment is rapidly losing patience with President Obama's Middle East policy.""As Syria burns and Egypt seethes, the biggest foreign policy story is unfolding right here at home. The establishment is rapidly losing patience with President Obama's Middle East policy."
This evolution, fuelled by the enormity of Syria's suffering and concomitant regional destabilisation, could be powerful enough finally to exorcise the ghosts of Iraq and revive, in practice, the old 1990s doctrine of humanitarian intervention.This evolution, fuelled by the enormity of Syria's suffering and concomitant regional destabilisation, could be powerful enough finally to exorcise the ghosts of Iraq and revive, in practice, the old 1990s doctrine of humanitarian intervention.
So what can Obama do? As Vladimir Putin was expected to make plain to John Kerry in Moscow on Tuesday, he cannot count on Russian (or, therefore, Chinese or UN security council) support to fix Syria.So what can Obama do? As Vladimir Putin was expected to make plain to John Kerry in Moscow on Tuesday, he cannot count on Russian (or, therefore, Chinese or UN security council) support to fix Syria.
The diplomatic process is at a standstill. That leaves a minimalist decision to arm the rebels, an idea floated by the Pentagon and encouraged by Britain and France despite fears that anti-western Islamist jihadis may benefit.The diplomatic process is at a standstill. That leaves a minimalist decision to arm the rebels, an idea floated by the Pentagon and encouraged by Britain and France despite fears that anti-western Islamist jihadis may benefit.
Beyond that, options include creating a no-fly zone, similar to that imposed on Saddam Hussein's Iraq after the first Gulf war; so-called "surgical" strikes intended to take out Assad's airfields, anti-aircraft batteries, artillery and arms dumps and thereby protect the civilian population; a wider, open-ended air campaign to bring the regime to its knees (as in former Yugoslavia during the Kosovo crisis); or an all-out ground intervention if all the above fail.Beyond that, options include creating a no-fly zone, similar to that imposed on Saddam Hussein's Iraq after the first Gulf war; so-called "surgical" strikes intended to take out Assad's airfields, anti-aircraft batteries, artillery and arms dumps and thereby protect the civilian population; a wider, open-ended air campaign to bring the regime to its knees (as in former Yugoslavia during the Kosovo crisis); or an all-out ground intervention if all the above fail.
These are all unpalatable and perilous military scenarios for a notoriously risk-averse commander-in-chief who sought to end America's Middle East wars, not plunge into a new one. But whatever he may wish, Obama will have to do something, and soon.These are all unpalatable and perilous military scenarios for a notoriously risk-averse commander-in-chief who sought to end America's Middle East wars, not plunge into a new one. But whatever he may wish, Obama will have to do something, and soon.
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