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If David Cameron had any sense, he would call a referendum on Europe now If David Cameron had any sense, he would call a referendum on Europe now
(5 months later)
The UK Independence party is mid-term political froth, here today and blown away tomorrow. The only matter of interest is whether it froths enough to destroy a major party leader, David Cameron, as the SDP did Michael Foot in 1983. But if Ukip is froth, yesterday's intervention by Nigel Lawson is a different matter. The former chancellor may be years out of office, but he is still a leading Tory. He has turned the knife in his leader's side just when Cameron might have thought things could not get worse. Lawson's demand that Britain leave the European Union was more substantive for coming from a former EU supporter and a sometime shadower of a common currency.The UK Independence party is mid-term political froth, here today and blown away tomorrow. The only matter of interest is whether it froths enough to destroy a major party leader, David Cameron, as the SDP did Michael Foot in 1983. But if Ukip is froth, yesterday's intervention by Nigel Lawson is a different matter. The former chancellor may be years out of office, but he is still a leading Tory. He has turned the knife in his leader's side just when Cameron might have thought things could not get worse. Lawson's demand that Britain leave the European Union was more substantive for coming from a former EU supporter and a sometime shadower of a common currency.
Cameron now has one trouble no Tory leader can ignore: Euro-trouble. He might manage a possible Commons vote on a referendum motion. He might even manage an EU renegotiation, notionally after the next election. But he has to get from here to there, and Lawson has just made it that much harder. His thesis is that the prime minister's moderate scepticism no longer has clothes; that renegotiation is a sham.Cameron now has one trouble no Tory leader can ignore: Euro-trouble. He might manage a possible Commons vote on a referendum motion. He might even manage an EU renegotiation, notionally after the next election. But he has to get from here to there, and Lawson has just made it that much harder. His thesis is that the prime minister's moderate scepticism no longer has clothes; that renegotiation is a sham.
The Eurobarometer poll shows 69% of UK voters as having lost trust in the EU. Successive YouGov and other polls have "outs" outnumbering "ins" by an eight to 10-point margin. Cameron's strategy has always relied on the answer to a second "prompt" question, whether people would stay in the EU following a meaningful renegotiation. This still shows a majority switching to the "in" camp, but it clearly depends on negotiation delivering results. And this is what Lawson has challenged.The Eurobarometer poll shows 69% of UK voters as having lost trust in the EU. Successive YouGov and other polls have "outs" outnumbering "ins" by an eight to 10-point margin. Cameron's strategy has always relied on the answer to a second "prompt" question, whether people would stay in the EU following a meaningful renegotiation. This still shows a majority switching to the "in" camp, but it clearly depends on negotiation delivering results. And this is what Lawson has challenged.
Cameron has spent much of his time rolling the pitch for renegotiation. He has other European leaders on side, and a sympathetic hearing from Germany's Angela Merkel. Yet to Lawson this is as pointless as was Harold Wilson's phoney renegotiation in 1975. The EU is an exercise in seeking ever greater political union to police a single currency, in which Britain has no interest. The only sense lies in exit.Cameron has spent much of his time rolling the pitch for renegotiation. He has other European leaders on side, and a sympathetic hearing from Germany's Angela Merkel. Yet to Lawson this is as pointless as was Harold Wilson's phoney renegotiation in 1975. The EU is an exercise in seeking ever greater political union to police a single currency, in which Britain has no interest. The only sense lies in exit.
Lawson is less than fair to the past. He fails to mention John Major's Maastricht 1992 "opt-outs", notably on labour law, or the fact that not adopting the single currency was itself a significant gesture of semi-detachment. Nor would it be in the EU's interest for Britain to leave. Renegotiation may be tough, but Lawson's defeatism seems overly pessimistic at this stage.Lawson is less than fair to the past. He fails to mention John Major's Maastricht 1992 "opt-outs", notably on labour law, or the fact that not adopting the single currency was itself a significant gesture of semi-detachment. Nor would it be in the EU's interest for Britain to leave. Renegotiation may be tough, but Lawson's defeatism seems overly pessimistic at this stage.
More to the point for Cameron's argument, however, it is clear that the EU cannot go on as it is at present. The growing distance between the euro and non-euro members will require a new treaty of sorts. Continent-wide migration is poisoning politics in almost every EU country. The intrusion, corruption and inanity of EU administration is so hated as to be unsustainable – though supranational bureaucracies are fiercely resistant to dismantling.More to the point for Cameron's argument, however, it is clear that the EU cannot go on as it is at present. The growing distance between the euro and non-euro members will require a new treaty of sorts. Continent-wide migration is poisoning politics in almost every EU country. The intrusion, corruption and inanity of EU administration is so hated as to be unsustainable – though supranational bureaucracies are fiercely resistant to dismantling.
Lawson predicted back in 1989 that a single currency could not work "without a full-blooded political union that is not wanted by the majority of the peoples of Europe", and so it has proved. But Cameron and his moderates might equally retort that, if this scenario is doomed to demise at the hands of democracy, why not wait, and be part of a reconstruction?Lawson predicted back in 1989 that a single currency could not work "without a full-blooded political union that is not wanted by the majority of the peoples of Europe", and so it has proved. But Cameron and his moderates might equally retort that, if this scenario is doomed to demise at the hands of democracy, why not wait, and be part of a reconstruction?
The antis' answer is that all this is mere "tomorrow-ism". Lawson may not have made Ukip respectable but he has put its central plank into serious play. That party's unequivocal stance on Europe was to get out. To the political establishment this has long been unthinkable, undiscussable. Ukip's Nigel Farage may revel in sacrilege, deriding Tory Eurosceptics as mealy-mouthed agnostics. But he could be dismissed as a ranting populist. Now he has an economic heavyweight for an ally.The antis' answer is that all this is mere "tomorrow-ism". Lawson may not have made Ukip respectable but he has put its central plank into serious play. That party's unequivocal stance on Europe was to get out. To the political establishment this has long been unthinkable, undiscussable. Ukip's Nigel Farage may revel in sacrilege, deriding Tory Eurosceptics as mealy-mouthed agnostics. But he could be dismissed as a ranting populist. Now he has an economic heavyweight for an ally.
Lawson does not bandy xenophobia, refusing to confuse Europe good with EU bad. He sees the EU as making Europe commercially introverted and over-regulated, much like the old British empire, whose manufacturers relaxed "secure in the embrace of imperial preference". The EU straitjacket of a single currency condemns it not just to austerity and recession but to "continuing economic underperformance". The outside world, especially Asia, can hardly believe its luck. Meanwhile, Britain's one world-class industry, financial services, is in the sights of every jealous EU regulator. To Lawson the gains from leaving now far outweigh the losses.Lawson does not bandy xenophobia, refusing to confuse Europe good with EU bad. He sees the EU as making Europe commercially introverted and over-regulated, much like the old British empire, whose manufacturers relaxed "secure in the embrace of imperial preference". The EU straitjacket of a single currency condemns it not just to austerity and recession but to "continuing economic underperformance". The outside world, especially Asia, can hardly believe its luck. Meanwhile, Britain's one world-class industry, financial services, is in the sights of every jealous EU regulator. To Lawson the gains from leaving now far outweigh the losses.
Sceptics will retort that Lawson's leaving negotiation would, in reality, be little different from Cameron's because both would be subject to eventual referendum. Europe is now passing from the age of indirect democracy to that of direct. The Lisbon treaty must be up for grabs. The referendum shocks of 2005 may have led politicians to avoid putting Europe to a public vote, but the popular view cannot be ignored for ever. Ukip is a manifestation of a euroscepticism that is now continent-wide. Eurobarometer's "distrust" percentage was 56 in Germany, 59 in France and 72 in Spain.Sceptics will retort that Lawson's leaving negotiation would, in reality, be little different from Cameron's because both would be subject to eventual referendum. Europe is now passing from the age of indirect democracy to that of direct. The Lisbon treaty must be up for grabs. The referendum shocks of 2005 may have led politicians to avoid putting Europe to a public vote, but the popular view cannot be ignored for ever. Ukip is a manifestation of a euroscepticism that is now continent-wide. Eurobarometer's "distrust" percentage was 56 in Germany, 59 in France and 72 in Spain.
If Cameron had any sense, he would do the one thing that might save his political career in 2015. He should seize the moment and call an early referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. The whole venture is now chronically short of legitimacy. Political unions are rarely just about money. Like England's union with Scotland, membership of the EU is not an economic equation. It has become a matter of identity, pride and self-empowerment.If Cameron had any sense, he would do the one thing that might save his political career in 2015. He should seize the moment and call an early referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. The whole venture is now chronically short of legitimacy. Political unions are rarely just about money. Like England's union with Scotland, membership of the EU is not an economic equation. It has become a matter of identity, pride and self-empowerment.
No matter what the referendum question is, what the outcome or what the consequence, Cameron has to regain the initiative on Europe. He cannot do so with Ukip and Lawson roaming free. Nick Clegg and his Liberal Democrats may oppose a referendum except on "more powers for Brussels", but those are as likely as snow in summer. But the one thing Clegg fears more than a referendum on Europe is an early general election.No matter what the referendum question is, what the outcome or what the consequence, Cameron has to regain the initiative on Europe. He cannot do so with Ukip and Lawson roaming free. Nick Clegg and his Liberal Democrats may oppose a referendum except on "more powers for Brussels", but those are as likely as snow in summer. But the one thing Clegg fears more than a referendum on Europe is an early general election.
If Cameron were to call Clegg's bluff by demanding a parliamentary vote on a referendum and then holding one, it would take the wind out of Ukip's sails and calm his own sceptics and antis. A referendum would be merely a mandating one, since it would precede any renegotiation, with probably another to follow renegotiation. Europe would have to take it or leave it. Whatever happened, Cameron could argue that he was acting decisively on the expressed wishes of the British people. He cannot argue that now.If Cameron were to call Clegg's bluff by demanding a parliamentary vote on a referendum and then holding one, it would take the wind out of Ukip's sails and calm his own sceptics and antis. A referendum would be merely a mandating one, since it would precede any renegotiation, with probably another to follow renegotiation. Europe would have to take it or leave it. Whatever happened, Cameron could argue that he was acting decisively on the expressed wishes of the British people. He cannot argue that now.
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