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Should David Cameron be worried about Tory MPs defecting to Ukip? Should David Cameron be worried about Tory MPs defecting to Ukip?
(5 months later)
Naughty Tory backbenchers! Eurosceptic Gollums such as Bernard Jenkin ("my precious referendumses") have been adding to Nigel Lawson's pressure on David Cameron for an in/out ballot by dropping unsubtle hints that colleagues may start defecting to Ukip if Dave doesn't get tougher. It is a well-tried destabilising ploy from the Alastair Campbell handbook. But could it actually happen?Naughty Tory backbenchers! Eurosceptic Gollums such as Bernard Jenkin ("my precious referendumses") have been adding to Nigel Lawson's pressure on David Cameron for an in/out ballot by dropping unsubtle hints that colleagues may start defecting to Ukip if Dave doesn't get tougher. It is a well-tried destabilising ploy from the Alastair Campbell handbook. But could it actually happen?
Blogger Guido Fawkes put up a runners and riders list last month. It included everyone's favourite tip, Nadine Dorries, because she a) is flakey b) loves publicity c) had the Tory whip removed for her defection to reality TV d) has a safe seat and e) is noisily Eurosceptic. It won't happen now. Last night the nervous nellies restored the Tory whip.Blogger Guido Fawkes put up a runners and riders list last month. It included everyone's favourite tip, Nadine Dorries, because she a) is flakey b) loves publicity c) had the Tory whip removed for her defection to reality TV d) has a safe seat and e) is noisily Eurosceptic. It won't happen now. Last night the nervous nellies restored the Tory whip.
But Nadine is not daft and defection is risky. Ahead of a sea-change election (like those in 1979 or 1997) a few MPs usually go over to the side certain to win. They talk of disappointment ("sadly the government has lost its way") and principle, but a ministerial job or a peerage may be dangled in the mix. Farage lacks the patronage to offer such baubles. Besides, last week's 25% Ukip vote was on a turnout of just 30%.But Nadine is not daft and defection is risky. Ahead of a sea-change election (like those in 1979 or 1997) a few MPs usually go over to the side certain to win. They talk of disappointment ("sadly the government has lost its way") and principle, but a ministerial job or a peerage may be dangled in the mix. Farage lacks the patronage to offer such baubles. Besides, last week's 25% Ukip vote was on a turnout of just 30%.
In any case, Tory hero Benjamin Disraeli is supposed to have said: "Damn your principles, stick to your party." Arch-Eurosceptic Bill Cash (so patriotic he was born on the day Churchill swept to power in 1940) is likely to take that view, whatever Guido says. He may also be a bit grand for Ukip. So is brainy Old Fogey Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jenkin himself.In any case, Tory hero Benjamin Disraeli is supposed to have said: "Damn your principles, stick to your party." Arch-Eurosceptic Bill Cash (so patriotic he was born on the day Churchill swept to power in 1940) is likely to take that view, whatever Guido says. He may also be a bit grand for Ukip. So is brainy Old Fogey Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jenkin himself.
Not so Mark Pritchard (MP for The Wrekin) or George Eustace (Camborne and Redruth), who are also on some lists, though deft Eustace has already defected to Ukip once and come back. Angela Watkinson is said to hold chinwags with the Faragistas. At 71 and an Essex MP, she has the right profile to lead Ukip's youth wing. She's tough enough, too: one to watch if Cameron's Etonian Tendancy becomes unbearable.Not so Mark Pritchard (MP for The Wrekin) or George Eustace (Camborne and Redruth), who are also on some lists, though deft Eustace has already defected to Ukip once and come back. Angela Watkinson is said to hold chinwags with the Faragistas. At 71 and an Essex MP, she has the right profile to lead Ukip's youth wing. She's tough enough, too: one to watch if Cameron's Etonian Tendancy becomes unbearable.
What most of the above probably want is to have their British fruitcake and eat it; to flatter Ukip as a convenient brick with which to beat Dave, but not to risk all by actually defecting, as Bob Spink did after a local row in 2008: he lost his Castle Point seat to his Tory challenger in 2010.What most of the above probably want is to have their British fruitcake and eat it; to flatter Ukip as a convenient brick with which to beat Dave, but not to risk all by actually defecting, as Bob Spink did after a local row in 2008: he lost his Castle Point seat to his Tory challenger in 2010.
If they seek a role model it must be Lord Tebbit who has sailed close to the Ukip wind for years without capsizing his dinghy or being sunk by HMS Dave.If they seek a role model it must be Lord Tebbit who has sailed close to the Ukip wind for years without capsizing his dinghy or being sunk by HMS Dave.
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