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Next W.T.O. Head Wants a New Look at the Body’s Role Next W.T.O. Head Wants a New Look at Body’s Role
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PARIS — Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, the next head of the World Trade Organization, said on Wednesday that the institution needed to adapt as the United States and other nations turn away from the multilateral forum to regional trade agreements.PARIS — Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, the next head of the World Trade Organization, said on Wednesday that the institution needed to adapt as the United States and other nations turn away from the multilateral forum to regional trade agreements.
But doubts persist among officials involved in international policy that he will be able to conclude negotiations for a global trade agreement that will lower trade barriers and address new issues of trade in services and the Internet.But doubts persist among officials involved in international policy that he will be able to conclude negotiations for a global trade agreement that will lower trade barriers and address new issues of trade in services and the Internet.
“We’ve tried for three years to convince ourselves that minor adjustments could give us a way out,” Mr. Azevêdo, a Brazilian, said by telephone from Geneva, where he was formally recommended to W.T.O. members on Wednesday. “Now, I’m convinced that we have to change the approach. We have to ask what is actually doable.”“We’ve tried for three years to convince ourselves that minor adjustments could give us a way out,” Mr. Azevêdo, a Brazilian, said by telephone from Geneva, where he was formally recommended to W.T.O. members on Wednesday. “Now, I’m convinced that we have to change the approach. We have to ask what is actually doable.”
The so-called Doha Round of negotiations, which began 12 years ago, hit the rocks in 2008 over questions of trade in industrial goods and protecting small farmers from cheap food imports. The talks have been essentially dormant since 2011.The so-called Doha Round of negotiations, which began 12 years ago, hit the rocks in 2008 over questions of trade in industrial goods and protecting small farmers from cheap food imports. The talks have been essentially dormant since 2011.
The first step to restarting the Doha Round “is very clear,” Mr. Azevêdo said, “starting with success in Bali,” where W.T.O. ministers meet in December. Officials hope to achieve at least token success in streamlining customs procedures and ending export subsidies. Accomplishing that, he said, would provide both substance and “much-needed confidence” that the W.T.O. can get the job done.The first step to restarting the Doha Round “is very clear,” Mr. Azevêdo said, “starting with success in Bali,” where W.T.O. ministers meet in December. Officials hope to achieve at least token success in streamlining customs procedures and ending export subsidies. Accomplishing that, he said, would provide both substance and “much-needed confidence” that the W.T.O. can get the job done.
Failure to move forward on the Doha Round “is paralyzing the whole system,” he said. But there is more to the trade body than just those talks, he said: “We need to look at the W.T.O. trade agenda; we haven’t done that in a long time.”Failure to move forward on the Doha Round “is paralyzing the whole system,” he said. But there is more to the trade body than just those talks, he said: “We need to look at the W.T.O. trade agenda; we haven’t done that in a long time.”
There are trade-related issues “that we don’t talk about,” he said, things like climate change, energy, renewable fuels. “We have to decide whether those areas are amenable to discussion.There are trade-related issues “that we don’t talk about,” he said, things like climate change, energy, renewable fuels. “We have to decide whether those areas are amenable to discussion.
“I don’t think you can just throw away the progress we’ve made over the last 12 years,” Mr. Azevêdo said. “We need to go deeper in some areas and less deep in others. We have to be more sophisticated, more flexible and more pragmatic.”“I don’t think you can just throw away the progress we’ve made over the last 12 years,” Mr. Azevêdo said. “We need to go deeper in some areas and less deep in others. We have to be more sophisticated, more flexible and more pragmatic.”
Pankaj Ghemawat, a professor of global strategy at the IESE Business School in Madrid, said he feared that Mr. Azevêdo’s status as an insider and conciliator could work against him in the current situation, where “Doha isn’t just stalled; it’s got negative momentum.”Pankaj Ghemawat, a professor of global strategy at the IESE Business School in Madrid, said he feared that Mr. Azevêdo’s status as an insider and conciliator could work against him in the current situation, where “Doha isn’t just stalled; it’s got negative momentum.”
“He bills himself as a consensus builder,” Professor Ghemawat said, “but there’s a question about how far you can get with that. The W.T.O. has 159 members, so it’s a little like herding cats. You do need some steel to get things done, especially in the tricky situation he’s inheriting.”“He bills himself as a consensus builder,” Professor Ghemawat said, “but there’s a question about how far you can get with that. The W.T.O. has 159 members, so it’s a little like herding cats. You do need some steel to get things done, especially in the tricky situation he’s inheriting.”
The breakdown of the Doha Round has led the United States and others to focus on breaking down barriers at the regional level, an approach that could redraw the map of global commerce outside the W.T.O. framework. The Obama administration is negotiating with partners in the Asia-Pacific region on a deal that would effectively bring Australia, Japan and others into the North American Free Trade Agreement. It has also reached out to Europe, opening the way for exploratory talks on a trans-Atlantic bloc. So far, both proposals would exclude China, Brazil, India and other developing nations.The breakdown of the Doha Round has led the United States and others to focus on breaking down barriers at the regional level, an approach that could redraw the map of global commerce outside the W.T.O. framework. The Obama administration is negotiating with partners in the Asia-Pacific region on a deal that would effectively bring Australia, Japan and others into the North American Free Trade Agreement. It has also reached out to Europe, opening the way for exploratory talks on a trans-Atlantic bloc. So far, both proposals would exclude China, Brazil, India and other developing nations.
Mr. Azevêdo played down the significance of the United States’ turn toward bilateral and regional deals, saying: “This is not news, we’ve always had these types of deals. The problem is that they’re not happening at the W.T.O. But all the members want the Doha Round to move.”Mr. Azevêdo played down the significance of the United States’ turn toward bilateral and regional deals, saying: “This is not news, we’ve always had these types of deals. The problem is that they’re not happening at the W.T.O. But all the members want the Doha Round to move.”
Others think the outlook is even more bleak. “Undoing the damage of the last few years will take much more than a new W.T.O. head,” said Simon J. Evenett, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. “What is needed is a reset, something that can only come from the national capitals.”Others think the outlook is even more bleak. “Undoing the damage of the last few years will take much more than a new W.T.O. head,” said Simon J. Evenett, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. “What is needed is a reset, something that can only come from the national capitals.”
“Doha is dead,” Professor Evenett said. “Anyone who wants to revive it has to face the fact that the regional deals now have so much momentum.”“Doha is dead,” Professor Evenett said. “Anyone who wants to revive it has to face the fact that the regional deals now have so much momentum.”
Kevin P. Gallagher, a professor of international relations at Boston University who studies trade and investment policy, said Mr. Azevêdo faced “a tall order” in restoring Doha to the front line of trade discussions.Kevin P. Gallagher, a professor of international relations at Boston University who studies trade and investment policy, said Mr. Azevêdo faced “a tall order” in restoring Doha to the front line of trade discussions.
The proposed Asia-Pacific and European deals, with the United States as a fulcrum, have created “a Balkanization of global trade policy,” he said. But the regional trade deals are not nearly as valuable for the world economy as multilateral deals would be, he added.The proposed Asia-Pacific and European deals, with the United States as a fulcrum, have created “a Balkanization of global trade policy,” he said. But the regional trade deals are not nearly as valuable for the world economy as multilateral deals would be, he added.
“We’ve abandoned multilateralism,” he said.“We’ve abandoned multilateralism,” he said.
Mr. Azevêdo would succeed the current director general, Pascal Lamy, who is stepping down in September after serving two four-year terms. A 55-year-old career diplomat who has been part of Brazil’s team in Geneva since 1997, Mr. Azevêdo bested eight other candidates, including the former Mexican trade minister Herminio Blanco, a University of Chicago economist who some had cast as a proxy for the rich countries.Mr. Azevêdo would succeed the current director general, Pascal Lamy, who is stepping down in September after serving two four-year terms. A 55-year-old career diplomat who has been part of Brazil’s team in Geneva since 1997, Mr. Azevêdo bested eight other candidates, including the former Mexican trade minister Herminio Blanco, a University of Chicago economist who some had cast as a proxy for the rich countries.
Mr. Azevêdo rebutted suggestions that he was the developing world’s candidate, noting that he had the support of a majority of the 159-member body in every round of voting and garnered support from both rich and poor countries and from all across the world.Mr. Azevêdo rebutted suggestions that he was the developing world’s candidate, noting that he had the support of a majority of the 159-member body in every round of voting and garnered support from both rich and poor countries and from all across the world.
“The next director general has to be a representative of the whole membership,” he said. “There cannot be a north-south divide.”“The next director general has to be a representative of the whole membership,” he said. “There cannot be a north-south divide.”
His long tenure has given him a mastery of W.T.O. minutiae. Susan C. Schwab, a former United States trade representative whose team spent “hours and hours across the table from him,” described Mr. Azevêdo as “a brilliant tactician and negotiator.”His long tenure has given him a mastery of W.T.O. minutiae. Susan C. Schwab, a former United States trade representative whose team spent “hours and hours across the table from him,” described Mr. Azevêdo as “a brilliant tactician and negotiator.”
Ms. Schwab said Mr. Azevêdo was taking over an institution that is increasingly seen as unable to deliver. “The good news is that after the financial crisis in 2008, the world did not descend into a spiral of protectionism,” Ms. Schwab said. “The bad news is that there hasn’t been a major trade deal since the Uruguay Round in 1993. So the world is playing by old rules.”Ms. Schwab said Mr. Azevêdo was taking over an institution that is increasingly seen as unable to deliver. “The good news is that after the financial crisis in 2008, the world did not descend into a spiral of protectionism,” Ms. Schwab said. “The bad news is that there hasn’t been a major trade deal since the Uruguay Round in 1993. So the world is playing by old rules.”