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Reinhart and Rogoff correct austerity research error Reinhart and Rogoff correct austerity research error
(about 11 hours later)
Two Harvard economists whose widely-cited research on austerity was called into question last month have published a formal correction.Two Harvard economists whose widely-cited research on austerity was called into question last month have published a formal correction.
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff acknowledged errors in the figures in their 2010 paper on government debt and economic growth.Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff acknowledged errors in the figures in their 2010 paper on government debt and economic growth.
However, they defended their broad conclusion that high levels of debt are damaging. They did not actually state a causal link between high levels of debt and falling rates of economic growth.
The research has been used in support of austerity policies. However, others have used the research to support of austerity policies.
Flaws in the methodology in the paper first came to light when a masters student in the US found himself unable to replicate the findings of the study, called Growth in a Time of Debt.Flaws in the methodology in the paper first came to light when a masters student in the US found himself unable to replicate the findings of the study, called Growth in a Time of Debt.
A review by the student and his supervisors at the University of Massachusetts later found missing data, and questioned the way the academics calculated averages.A review by the student and his supervisors at the University of Massachusetts later found missing data, and questioned the way the academics calculated averages.
That called into question the conclusion that government debts equivalent to more than 90% of GDP negatively affect growth.That called into question the conclusion that government debts equivalent to more than 90% of GDP negatively affect growth.
The corrected figures still show that high debt levels hurt growth, but the fall is gentler than the sharp drop at 90% originally found. However, Professor Reinhart and Professor Rogoff maintained that at no point in their original research did they state that one causes the other, only that they are "associated".
This story was changed on 9 May 2013 to better reflect Professors Reinhart and Rogoff's views on association rather than causality in their work.