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| How will the probation service work under Chris Grayling's plans? | How will the probation service work under Chris Grayling's plans? |
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| One indication of the unexpected scale and pace of Chris Grayling's radical reforms came in an obscure Ministry of Justice "prior information notice" published to alert the markets. | One indication of the unexpected scale and pace of Chris Grayling's radical reforms came in an obscure Ministry of Justice "prior information notice" published to alert the markets. |
| It puts the estimated value of the new rehabilitation and supervision contracts at £5bn to £20bn over the next 10 years. It adds that it expects the formal competition for the "payment by results" contracts in 21 areas across England and Wales to start this August. | It puts the estimated value of the new rehabilitation and supervision contracts at £5bn to £20bn over the next 10 years. It adds that it expects the formal competition for the "payment by results" contracts in 21 areas across England and Wales to start this August. |
| The detailed Ministry of Justice strategy document also published on Thursday makes clear that the original estimate that 70% of existing probation work could end up with the private or voluntary sector and only 30% with the rump of the public probation service is no longer valid. | The detailed Ministry of Justice strategy document also published on Thursday makes clear that the original estimate that 70% of existing probation work could end up with the private or voluntary sector and only 30% with the rump of the public probation service is no longer valid. |
| The addition of the new work supervising 50,000 extra short-sentenced prisoners on their release, which is to go to private security companies and charities, has now shifted that balance. The figures now appear to be 88% in the private/voluntary sector and only 12% left in the hands of the probation service. | |
| The MoJ strategy document says that means the rump of the public probation service will be left managing 31,000 offenders a year who are either "high risk" or regarded as public protection cases because they are sex or violent offenders. The official estimate says that alternative private and voluntary sector providers will be supervising the remaining 236,000 low- and medium-risk offenders. | The MoJ strategy document says that means the rump of the public probation service will be left managing 31,000 offenders a year who are either "high risk" or regarded as public protection cases because they are sex or violent offenders. The official estimate says that alternative private and voluntary sector providers will be supervising the remaining 236,000 low- and medium-risk offenders. |
| The public probation service will be left with the responsibilities of assessing the risk posed by every offender, providing the courts and parole board with pre-sentence reports and advice, liaising with victims, and making the final decision on whether offenders should be sent back to prison if they breach the terms of their release licence. | The public probation service will be left with the responsibilities of assessing the risk posed by every offender, providing the courts and parole board with pre-sentence reports and advice, liaising with victims, and making the final decision on whether offenders should be sent back to prison if they breach the terms of their release licence. |
| But the overwhelming majority of probation work will move to the new providers. This is a point which Grayling emphasised when he stressed that he expected the majority of probation staff to move to the new providers. | But the overwhelming majority of probation work will move to the new providers. This is a point which Grayling emphasised when he stressed that he expected the majority of probation staff to move to the new providers. |
| One way they may well be moved from the public sector is by the 35 soon-to-be-dissolved public probation trusts turning themselves into "mutuals" to bid for the contracts in partnership with the private companies and voluntary organisations. But there is no guarantee that their bids will be the successful ones. | One way they may well be moved from the public sector is by the 35 soon-to-be-dissolved public probation trusts turning themselves into "mutuals" to bid for the contracts in partnership with the private companies and voluntary organisations. But there is no guarantee that their bids will be the successful ones. |
| When Ken Clarke launched this "rehabilitation revolution" three years ago he ordered that two pilots be carried out in Peterborough and Doncaster. Grayling has decided not to wait for the results of those experiments. Instead the justice secretary, who proudly boasts of how quickly he got the controversial work programme up and running, has decided to turbocharge the pace and scale of the revolution. Despite the protests that it is untried and untested he wants it all in place by the next general election in two years' time. |