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How Ed Miliband can move Labour forward to a majority How Ed Miliband can move Labour forward to a majority
(5 months later)
Cinema audiences across the country next week will have the opportunity to see the National Theatre's production of James Graham's play This House, which tells the story of the struggle for survival of James Callaghan's minority government. Patching together deals with minor parties and hauling in sick MPs for knife-edge votes, it shows a whips' office playing its best possible hand in the hope something will turn up to prevent the election of Margaret Thatcher.Cinema audiences across the country next week will have the opportunity to see the National Theatre's production of James Graham's play This House, which tells the story of the struggle for survival of James Callaghan's minority government. Patching together deals with minor parties and hauling in sick MPs for knife-edge votes, it shows a whips' office playing its best possible hand in the hope something will turn up to prevent the election of Margaret Thatcher.
Today, three years after a general election which produced the country's first hung parliament since 1974, there are few signs voters are any more enamoured with the experience than they were under Callaghan. While the coalition has brought a greater degree of stability than Labour's minority government enjoyed, an absence of direction and competence pervades David Cameron's administration.Today, three years after a general election which produced the country's first hung parliament since 1974, there are few signs voters are any more enamoured with the experience than they were under Callaghan. While the coalition has brought a greater degree of stability than Labour's minority government enjoyed, an absence of direction and competence pervades David Cameron's administration.
Despite this lack of enthusiasm for hung parliaments, last Thursday's local elections suggested 2015 might well see a similar result. As Peter Hain suggested this week, Labour has done enough to prevent the Tories winning outright, but "if a general election was held tomorrow, Labour wouldn't win a majority".Despite this lack of enthusiasm for hung parliaments, last Thursday's local elections suggested 2015 might well see a similar result. As Peter Hain suggested this week, Labour has done enough to prevent the Tories winning outright, but "if a general election was held tomorrow, Labour wouldn't win a majority".
So how can Ed Miliband turn stalemate into victory? As Peter Kellner argues in Majority Rules: Labour's Challenge in 2015, published today to coincide with the launch of Progress's Campaign for a Labour Majority, we need to acknowledge the scale of the challenge. There are no examples in the past 80 years of a defeated governing party returning to power with an overall majority at the subsequent general election. Moreover, no opposition party has gone on to win without at some point achieving an opinion poll lead of at least 20%. Labour has not come close to this since 2010.So how can Ed Miliband turn stalemate into victory? As Peter Kellner argues in Majority Rules: Labour's Challenge in 2015, published today to coincide with the launch of Progress's Campaign for a Labour Majority, we need to acknowledge the scale of the challenge. There are no examples in the past 80 years of a defeated governing party returning to power with an overall majority at the subsequent general election. Moreover, no opposition party has gone on to win without at some point achieving an opinion poll lead of at least 20%. Labour has not come close to this since 2010.
While Miliband has united the progressive vote behind Labour and built a lead in the polls, polling for Progress by YouGov underlines the challenges Labour still needs to surmount. On the positive side, Labour leads the Conservatives on nine of the 12 issues YouGov put to voters when it asked what they would expect from either party if it secured a majority in 2015. However, Labour's leads on some critical issues – that, for example, it would take the right decisions to help an economic recovery – are perilously small. And on some measures – most importantly, its ability to take tough and unpopular decisions where necessary – Labour badly lags the Conservatives.While Miliband has united the progressive vote behind Labour and built a lead in the polls, polling for Progress by YouGov underlines the challenges Labour still needs to surmount. On the positive side, Labour leads the Conservatives on nine of the 12 issues YouGov put to voters when it asked what they would expect from either party if it secured a majority in 2015. However, Labour's leads on some critical issues – that, for example, it would take the right decisions to help an economic recovery – are perilously small. And on some measures – most importantly, its ability to take tough and unpopular decisions where necessary – Labour badly lags the Conservatives.
The next phase of Miliband's leadership should, therefore have two central goals. First, Labour needs to widen the party's electoral map. As polling analyst Lewis Baston has shown: "Merely holding Liberal Democrat converts is enough to make it impossible for the other parties to form a non-Labour government but not enough for Labour to win a working majority." From the party's list of target seats, Kellner concludes Labour needs to take 60 directly from the Conservatives to win a majority. These seats are spread across the country, meaning a sectional "northern" or "southern" strategy would fail. Instead, Labour needs a genuinely national appeal.The next phase of Miliband's leadership should, therefore have two central goals. First, Labour needs to widen the party's electoral map. As polling analyst Lewis Baston has shown: "Merely holding Liberal Democrat converts is enough to make it impossible for the other parties to form a non-Labour government but not enough for Labour to win a working majority." From the party's list of target seats, Kellner concludes Labour needs to take 60 directly from the Conservatives to win a majority. These seats are spread across the country, meaning a sectional "northern" or "southern" strategy would fail. Instead, Labour needs a genuinely national appeal.
Second, Miliband needs to further develop Labour's case to the country. This can be achieved by focusing on four areas. First, the flatlining economy and failure to eliminate the deficit by 2015 requires Labour to demonstrate fiscal responsibility and a plan for growth. Second, the tight public finances that an incoming Labour government will inherit demand maximum return on every pound of taxpayers' money, hence the development of a compelling programme of public service reform. Third, in place of the coalition's divisive politics of "strivers vs shirkers", Labour needs to rebuild public confidence in the welfare state. The Beveridge settlement was underpinned by full employment, the contributory principle and conditionality: the notion that all those capable of work must do so. These principles are as relevant today as they were in 1942. Fourth, two critical long-term challenges – social care and childcare – are each important in their own right, but, tackled together, a move towards universal child and elderly care will help, respectively, drive up employment and relieve pressure on the health service.Second, Miliband needs to further develop Labour's case to the country. This can be achieved by focusing on four areas. First, the flatlining economy and failure to eliminate the deficit by 2015 requires Labour to demonstrate fiscal responsibility and a plan for growth. Second, the tight public finances that an incoming Labour government will inherit demand maximum return on every pound of taxpayers' money, hence the development of a compelling programme of public service reform. Third, in place of the coalition's divisive politics of "strivers vs shirkers", Labour needs to rebuild public confidence in the welfare state. The Beveridge settlement was underpinned by full employment, the contributory principle and conditionality: the notion that all those capable of work must do so. These principles are as relevant today as they were in 1942. Fourth, two critical long-term challenges – social care and childcare – are each important in their own right, but, tackled together, a move towards universal child and elderly care will help, respectively, drive up employment and relieve pressure on the health service.
Labour stands at a crossroads. Its opponents deserve to lose but the possibility of another indecisive election result remains. The party must now earn the right to victory.Labour stands at a crossroads. Its opponents deserve to lose but the possibility of another indecisive election result remains. The party must now earn the right to victory.
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