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Guardian/ICM poll: none of the above Guardian/ICM poll: none of the above
(4 months later)
Opinion polls are the miners' canaries of democracy: on occasion they indicate something very nasty indeed coming down the tunnel. So our latest Guardian/ICM poll ought to keep every political leader awake at night. The "none of the above" party is now vying with the Tories for second place; a total of 27% of voters are opting either for Ukip or one of the nationalist parties or the Greens. That's a record jump of 11 points on last month, and it includes a small but worrying increase in support for the BNP. It's not just a governing party problem either, now. The surge for the "others" has hit them all. Each has lost four points in a rejection of British mainstream politics without modern precedent. Party leaders have some very hard thinking to do.Opinion polls are the miners' canaries of democracy: on occasion they indicate something very nasty indeed coming down the tunnel. So our latest Guardian/ICM poll ought to keep every political leader awake at night. The "none of the above" party is now vying with the Tories for second place; a total of 27% of voters are opting either for Ukip or one of the nationalist parties or the Greens. That's a record jump of 11 points on last month, and it includes a small but worrying increase in support for the BNP. It's not just a governing party problem either, now. The surge for the "others" has hit them all. Each has lost four points in a rejection of British mainstream politics without modern precedent. Party leaders have some very hard thinking to do.
Almost the only certainty in all this is that a row over the tactics of a European referendum, such as the one distracting David Cameron as he tries to do business with President Obama, will only confirm voters in their suspicion that politicians inhabit a parallel universe. It is clear from the regular Ipsos-Mori issues index that – as Ed Miliband pointed out again at the weekend – it is not Europe but the economy that remains by far the biggest concern for most voters. Since 2005, when the rejection of the European constitution appeared to mark the high water mark of integration, the proportion of voters reporting that they are concerned about Europe has never gone above 10%, even if it has recently risen slightly amid the eurozone's woes.Almost the only certainty in all this is that a row over the tactics of a European referendum, such as the one distracting David Cameron as he tries to do business with President Obama, will only confirm voters in their suspicion that politicians inhabit a parallel universe. It is clear from the regular Ipsos-Mori issues index that – as Ed Miliband pointed out again at the weekend – it is not Europe but the economy that remains by far the biggest concern for most voters. Since 2005, when the rejection of the European constitution appeared to mark the high water mark of integration, the proportion of voters reporting that they are concerned about Europe has never gone above 10%, even if it has recently risen slightly amid the eurozone's woes.
This has two implications. First, Britain's place in Europe is a much bigger and more serious issue than many voters seem ready to acknowledge. The nature of the UK's relationship is changing, as the continent develops an increasingly consolidated inner core over which Britain has diminishing influence. This will matter greatly over the next decade. It is more important than narrow party advantage. However, instead of argument over the substance – echoes here of John Major's Maastricht misery – Mr Cameron finds himself abroad (and at sea) as rebels mount a challenge round a piece of parliamentary procedure: the vote on the Queen's speech. As a result, Mr Cameron has had to allow his most senior ministers to abstain rather than back their own government's business programme. There is a precedent for this, but not an auspicious one. The last prime minister unable to rally his own cabinet in support of official policy was Harold Wilson in 1975, forced in the referendum on Europe to let the original Eurosceptics campaign against staying in.This has two implications. First, Britain's place in Europe is a much bigger and more serious issue than many voters seem ready to acknowledge. The nature of the UK's relationship is changing, as the continent develops an increasingly consolidated inner core over which Britain has diminishing influence. This will matter greatly over the next decade. It is more important than narrow party advantage. However, instead of argument over the substance – echoes here of John Major's Maastricht misery – Mr Cameron finds himself abroad (and at sea) as rebels mount a challenge round a piece of parliamentary procedure: the vote on the Queen's speech. As a result, Mr Cameron has had to allow his most senior ministers to abstain rather than back their own government's business programme. There is a precedent for this, but not an auspicious one. The last prime minister unable to rally his own cabinet in support of official policy was Harold Wilson in 1975, forced in the referendum on Europe to let the original Eurosceptics campaign against staying in.
It is appealing to see Europe as some kind of a surrogate issue for a more generalised sense of powerlessness and discontent that feeds into a mistrust of all parties. That's the argument the rebels make in defence of their demand for a commitment to a referendum before the 2015 general election. But it does not appear to be how voters are thinking. Since David Cameron's January promise of a referendum after renegotiation, the balance of opinion has swung very marginally in favour of staying put. That suggests that rocketing support for Nigel Farage, Ukip's leader, may owe at least as much to his attraction as an outsider as to his anti-immigration, anti-European stance.It is appealing to see Europe as some kind of a surrogate issue for a more generalised sense of powerlessness and discontent that feeds into a mistrust of all parties. That's the argument the rebels make in defence of their demand for a commitment to a referendum before the 2015 general election. But it does not appear to be how voters are thinking. Since David Cameron's January promise of a referendum after renegotiation, the balance of opinion has swung very marginally in favour of staying put. That suggests that rocketing support for Nigel Farage, Ukip's leader, may owe at least as much to his attraction as an outsider as to his anti-immigration, anti-European stance.
Historically, the kind of surge our poll has found rarely lasts. But this extended economic stagnation, the impact of persistently high unemployment and frozen earnings, is creating a new and potentially malign political landscape. Voters are frustrated by the government's apparent inability to defend them. Mr Farage seems to meet an appetite, fanned by a press that has an active self-interest in promoting weak government, for dramatic solutions. The popularity of coalition as an idea has fallen sharply from its high three years ago. But the stronger the support for Mr Farage, the dimmer are the prospects for the clear mandate that voters now say they favour and for which both Labour and Conservatives yearn. Coalition is becoming more likely and less popular than at the same stage in the last election. Voters need to wise up, too.Historically, the kind of surge our poll has found rarely lasts. But this extended economic stagnation, the impact of persistently high unemployment and frozen earnings, is creating a new and potentially malign political landscape. Voters are frustrated by the government's apparent inability to defend them. Mr Farage seems to meet an appetite, fanned by a press that has an active self-interest in promoting weak government, for dramatic solutions. The popularity of coalition as an idea has fallen sharply from its high three years ago. But the stronger the support for Mr Farage, the dimmer are the prospects for the clear mandate that voters now say they favour and for which both Labour and Conservatives yearn. Coalition is becoming more likely and less popular than at the same stage in the last election. Voters need to wise up, too.
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