This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/16/britain-europe-recipe-for-irrelevance

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Britain and Europe: a recipe for irrelevance Britain and Europe: a recipe for irrelevance
(4 months later)
From a militant Conservative Eurosceptic viewpoint, it has been a terrific few days. First, a cascade of serving and former ministers say they want out of the EU. Second, David Cameron dashes to publish a bill committing the UK to an EU referendum in 2017. Third, 116 Tory MPs nevertheless vote to regret the absence of such a bill from the government's programme. Fourth, in the ballot to bring in a private member's bill this year, one rebel, James Wharton, comes first and immediately commits himself to pick up the PM's draft bill. Throw in a couple of extra bonbons – Nick Clegg's admission that it is now a matter of "when, not if" there is a referendum and the continued talk of Tory-Ukip pacts at local level in 2015 – and it is clear that things are going the sceptics' way.From a militant Conservative Eurosceptic viewpoint, it has been a terrific few days. First, a cascade of serving and former ministers say they want out of the EU. Second, David Cameron dashes to publish a bill committing the UK to an EU referendum in 2017. Third, 116 Tory MPs nevertheless vote to regret the absence of such a bill from the government's programme. Fourth, in the ballot to bring in a private member's bill this year, one rebel, James Wharton, comes first and immediately commits himself to pick up the PM's draft bill. Throw in a couple of extra bonbons – Nick Clegg's admission that it is now a matter of "when, not if" there is a referendum and the continued talk of Tory-Ukip pacts at local level in 2015 – and it is clear that things are going the sceptics' way.
Many sceptics can barely contain their excitement. They have got Mr Cameron on the run; his weakness as a party leader is palpable. Every day the Tory anti-European cause makes another advance. The anti-European screw on Mr Cameron seems to be tightening by the day. But there are two very big problems: first, all this is dangerous for the Tory party; second, it is the wrong course for the country.Many sceptics can barely contain their excitement. They have got Mr Cameron on the run; his weakness as a party leader is palpable. Every day the Tory anti-European cause makes another advance. The anti-European screw on Mr Cameron seems to be tightening by the day. But there are two very big problems: first, all this is dangerous for the Tory party; second, it is the wrong course for the country.
Take, to begin with, Mr Wharton's bill. The bill commits the UK to an in-out EU referendum in 2017. But the focus on the bill is misplaced; it exaggerates the notice that voters – including those who are tempted by Ukip – take of what happens in parliament. It overstates the priority that voters attach to the European issue rather than the economy, health, education and immigration. So it provides a platform for Tory divisions and obsessiveness.Take, to begin with, Mr Wharton's bill. The bill commits the UK to an in-out EU referendum in 2017. But the focus on the bill is misplaced; it exaggerates the notice that voters – including those who are tempted by Ukip – take of what happens in parliament. It overstates the priority that voters attach to the European issue rather than the economy, health, education and immigration. So it provides a platform for Tory divisions and obsessiveness.
Second, the bill is unlikely to become law. A private member's bill has bigger procedural hurdles to cross than government bills. It can be talked out. It can more easily be blocked by wrecking amendments. It needs to get through the Lords. And without Labour and Liberal Democrat agreement – which is unlikely, even though Labour has its own party management issues on Europe – there isn't enough Commons support anyway. Mr Wharton and his backers may end up drawing attention to little except their own political impotence.Second, the bill is unlikely to become law. A private member's bill has bigger procedural hurdles to cross than government bills. It can be talked out. It can more easily be blocked by wrecking amendments. It needs to get through the Lords. And without Labour and Liberal Democrat agreement – which is unlikely, even though Labour has its own party management issues on Europe – there isn't enough Commons support anyway. Mr Wharton and his backers may end up drawing attention to little except their own political impotence.
Third, the failure of Mr Wharton's bill could have the opposite political effect to the one its supporters intend. Backers hope that a strong Tory campaign on an EU referendum will staunch the flow of votes to Ukip. But this may misread the importance of the EU to Ukip's current appeal, which is based on a range of other dissatisfactions, too. If so, it may provide a boost to Ukip's protest vote rather than pricking its bubble.Third, the failure of Mr Wharton's bill could have the opposite political effect to the one its supporters intend. Backers hope that a strong Tory campaign on an EU referendum will staunch the flow of votes to Ukip. But this may misread the importance of the EU to Ukip's current appeal, which is based on a range of other dissatisfactions, too. If so, it may provide a boost to Ukip's protest vote rather than pricking its bubble.
If that happens, then the whole false logic may repeat itself next year. If Ukip wins the European elections in May 2014, the Tory panic will be greater than this year, not smaller. The Wharton bill could be revived – perhaps by the Tories officially, or by another backbencher. But the Commons arithmetic will not have changed. And the Eurosceptics may now find themselves erecting a platform for defeat in 2015, not victory. Ironically, it is far from impossible that the Lib Dems – most hated of all the Eurosceptics' foes – could be the ultimate beneficiary of their obsession.If that happens, then the whole false logic may repeat itself next year. If Ukip wins the European elections in May 2014, the Tory panic will be greater than this year, not smaller. The Wharton bill could be revived – perhaps by the Tories officially, or by another backbencher. But the Commons arithmetic will not have changed. And the Eurosceptics may now find themselves erecting a platform for defeat in 2015, not victory. Ironically, it is far from impossible that the Lib Dems – most hated of all the Eurosceptics' foes – could be the ultimate beneficiary of their obsession.
In the end, though, there are two larger reasons why the Wharton bill is objectionable, not just in tactical terms but on principle. One is that it is an abuse of parliamentary democracy to try to bind a future parliament. This is legislation as a political pose, not lawmaking. It is reminiscent of New Labour at its most bankrupt. It is up to us, the voters, what the 2015 parliament looks like and what it does; it is not up to this parliament.In the end, though, there are two larger reasons why the Wharton bill is objectionable, not just in tactical terms but on principle. One is that it is an abuse of parliamentary democracy to try to bind a future parliament. This is legislation as a political pose, not lawmaking. It is reminiscent of New Labour at its most bankrupt. It is up to us, the voters, what the 2015 parliament looks like and what it does; it is not up to this parliament.
The other, even more fundamental point, is that this country should be in, not out, of the EU. By all means have a referendum, as the law requires, if the terms of the deal change substantially. But that's simply not on the table right now. All our parties, including the Tories, would be much better occupied trying to make Europe work for the voters, instead of endlessly scheming the collapse of a union that, with all its faults, still remains central to the long-term UK national interest.The other, even more fundamental point, is that this country should be in, not out, of the EU. By all means have a referendum, as the law requires, if the terms of the deal change substantially. But that's simply not on the table right now. All our parties, including the Tories, would be much better occupied trying to make Europe work for the voters, instead of endlessly scheming the collapse of a union that, with all its faults, still remains central to the long-term UK national interest.
Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning.