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Amid Tory disarray, Labour's critical moment looms Amid Tory disarray, Labour's critical moment looms
(4 months later)
The madness of the Tory party defies belief. Forget banging on, these out-of-control crazies are in the grip of a brain fever, crushing themselves to death in a stampede for the Euro-exit. Top dogs fight over the bone of the leadership, but who in their right mind wants to lead this rabble? Is it catching, does this frenzy infect the voters? No, Europe remains remarkably low – and falling – on their list of concerns.The madness of the Tory party defies belief. Forget banging on, these out-of-control crazies are in the grip of a brain fever, crushing themselves to death in a stampede for the Euro-exit. Top dogs fight over the bone of the leadership, but who in their right mind wants to lead this rabble? Is it catching, does this frenzy infect the voters? No, Europe remains remarkably low – and falling – on their list of concerns.
Out here, a cascade of bad news this week was ignored by the unhinged government benches. Report after report revealed mismanagement of just about everything. Unemployment rose, and is expected to keep on rising. Hidden beneath are the millions of under-employed, stuck in part-time or zero-hours contracts. A third of all young people not in university are out of work. Thousands evicted from Remploy factories have joined most of those thrown off disability benefits, unable to find jobs. Average real earnings have fallen back to 2000 levels, according to the Resolution Foundation, and this week's Office for National Statistics figures show 0.4% wages growth – a record low – while retail prices index inflation is running at 3.3%.Out here, a cascade of bad news this week was ignored by the unhinged government benches. Report after report revealed mismanagement of just about everything. Unemployment rose, and is expected to keep on rising. Hidden beneath are the millions of under-employed, stuck in part-time or zero-hours contracts. A third of all young people not in university are out of work. Thousands evicted from Remploy factories have joined most of those thrown off disability benefits, unable to find jobs. Average real earnings have fallen back to 2000 levels, according to the Resolution Foundation, and this week's Office for National Statistics figures show 0.4% wages growth – a record low – while retail prices index inflation is running at 3.3%.
What else? The ONS shows house prices back up to 2008 levels, to the glee of estate agents and the Treasury. That's precisely what Help to Buy is designed to do. The chancellor's scheme bubbles up prices by subsidising lending on properties worth up to £600,000, stoking the furnace of demand without increasing supply. But what the hell? Home owners will be thrilled and more owners than renters vote Tory. The hope is that owners will borrow and spend as house values rise: George Osborne opts for illusory growth on the booming never-never for lack of any other. Meanwhile, new homes built are 45% down on 2007, when Labour building was already shockingly low.What else? The ONS shows house prices back up to 2008 levels, to the glee of estate agents and the Treasury. That's precisely what Help to Buy is designed to do. The chancellor's scheme bubbles up prices by subsidising lending on properties worth up to £600,000, stoking the furnace of demand without increasing supply. But what the hell? Home owners will be thrilled and more owners than renters vote Tory. The hope is that owners will borrow and spend as house values rise: George Osborne opts for illusory growth on the booming never-never for lack of any other. Meanwhile, new homes built are 45% down on 2007, when Labour building was already shockingly low.
While Tory MPs obsess over Europe, the NHS showed symptoms of imminent trouble. After the economy, here is David Cameron's great achilles heel: all that £3bn wasted, all that medical and managerial time lost on his great commercial outsourcing, and the service is heading perilously near to the rocks. A&E is the pressure point, with a million more patients arriving in the last year, a near meltdown due to failing out-of-hours GP services and NHS 111 services. This week BMA doctors published a major survey, Growing Up in the UK, warning of a fall in child wellbeing, with more children taken into care than ever before. It echoes The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills, by David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu, revealing what badly managed slumps do to the physical and mental health of nations. UK suicide rates are rising for the first time after falling for over a decade, with unemployed young and late middle-aged men at most risk. "Children should not pay the price of the economic downturn," says the BMA, yet the Institute for Fiscal Studies says 500,000 more children will be poor by 2015 as a direct result of government policy.While Tory MPs obsess over Europe, the NHS showed symptoms of imminent trouble. After the economy, here is David Cameron's great achilles heel: all that £3bn wasted, all that medical and managerial time lost on his great commercial outsourcing, and the service is heading perilously near to the rocks. A&E is the pressure point, with a million more patients arriving in the last year, a near meltdown due to failing out-of-hours GP services and NHS 111 services. This week BMA doctors published a major survey, Growing Up in the UK, warning of a fall in child wellbeing, with more children taken into care than ever before. It echoes The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills, by David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu, revealing what badly managed slumps do to the physical and mental health of nations. UK suicide rates are rising for the first time after falling for over a decade, with unemployed young and late middle-aged men at most risk. "Children should not pay the price of the economic downturn," says the BMA, yet the Institute for Fiscal Studies says 500,000 more children will be poor by 2015 as a direct result of government policy.
Though it fails at much else, propaganda is one thing the government is good at – twisting the language and deploying bogus figures to turn the majority against the minority. The British Library Propaganda exhibition opening today did consider including the Tories' "shirker" and "skiver" versus "striver" language as a prime example for their Enemy Within section on scapegoating. The Rowntree Foundation's report this week analysing public attitudes to poverty shows how well Cameron's team have done. Compared with previous recessions, the public is harder hearted. Labour supporters have changed most, more switching to regard poverty as the fault of the individual, not of social injustice: 31% see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared with 21% in 1987, while 46% say people would stand on their own feet if benefits were less generous. Labour MPs were cast down by these findings, though not surprised, since they hear it on doorstep every day.Though it fails at much else, propaganda is one thing the government is good at – twisting the language and deploying bogus figures to turn the majority against the minority. The British Library Propaganda exhibition opening today did consider including the Tories' "shirker" and "skiver" versus "striver" language as a prime example for their Enemy Within section on scapegoating. The Rowntree Foundation's report this week analysing public attitudes to poverty shows how well Cameron's team have done. Compared with previous recessions, the public is harder hearted. Labour supporters have changed most, more switching to regard poverty as the fault of the individual, not of social injustice: 31% see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared with 21% in 1987, while 46% say people would stand on their own feet if benefits were less generous. Labour MPs were cast down by these findings, though not surprised, since they hear it on doorstep every day.
While the Tories wrestle with euro-lunacy demons, Labour knows its own critical moment is imminent: persuading voters they can control the benefit bill is a tough challenge. On 26 June Osborne presents his comprehensive spending review covering 2015-16 – with an outline spending plan for the next three years. He expects Labour to stumble and fail in its response, with his cap on spending falling hardest on benefits as his trap. There is growing pressure on Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to jump ahead of the game and lay out a plan of their own before the parameters of the debate are framed by Osborne. Labour's own policy review is shaping the outlines. On benefits, answers begin to look like this: "We are as opposed to the wasteful benefit budget as you – and we will cut it better than you. But we will do it by putting people back to work with our costed job guarantee. We will cut the exorbitant waste on housing benefit poured into private landlords' pockets with a massive building programme."While the Tories wrestle with euro-lunacy demons, Labour knows its own critical moment is imminent: persuading voters they can control the benefit bill is a tough challenge. On 26 June Osborne presents his comprehensive spending review covering 2015-16 – with an outline spending plan for the next three years. He expects Labour to stumble and fail in its response, with his cap on spending falling hardest on benefits as his trap. There is growing pressure on Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to jump ahead of the game and lay out a plan of their own before the parameters of the debate are framed by Osborne. Labour's own policy review is shaping the outlines. On benefits, answers begin to look like this: "We are as opposed to the wasteful benefit budget as you – and we will cut it better than you. But we will do it by putting people back to work with our costed job guarantee. We will cut the exorbitant waste on housing benefit poured into private landlords' pockets with a massive building programme."
Housing benefit will be devolved so councils can switch spending from private rents to building, turning benefits into bricks and mortar. Yes, there will be an iron box for current spending – but inside it tax and spending choices will be radically different. They can afford to boast that they will be borrowing to invest in growth-creating building, universal childcare and care of the old.Housing benefit will be devolved so councils can switch spending from private rents to building, turning benefits into bricks and mortar. Yes, there will be an iron box for current spending – but inside it tax and spending choices will be radically different. They can afford to boast that they will be borrowing to invest in growth-creating building, universal childcare and care of the old.
But there will be hard decisions too. The first, totemic one may be abolition of the winter fuel allowance: pensioners had a 5.5% rise this year when wages and benefits fell. As the Institute for Public Policy and Research's Nick Pearce dared write this week, they should abandon pretence that the target to abolish child poverty by 2020 can be met. Labour can say how near-impossible it will be just to return to the numbers in poverty before this government's assault on the most vulnerable. Both these will cause it pain. But putting future funds into free childcare to get parents into work before replacing some lost benefits has a better chance of cutting poverty and the cost of benefits, both still rising under Osborne.But there will be hard decisions too. The first, totemic one may be abolition of the winter fuel allowance: pensioners had a 5.5% rise this year when wages and benefits fell. As the Institute for Public Policy and Research's Nick Pearce dared write this week, they should abandon pretence that the target to abolish child poverty by 2020 can be met. Labour can say how near-impossible it will be just to return to the numbers in poverty before this government's assault on the most vulnerable. Both these will cause it pain. But putting future funds into free childcare to get parents into work before replacing some lost benefits has a better chance of cutting poverty and the cost of benefits, both still rising under Osborne.
Labour can't spell out a precise budget now: no one knows next month's figures, let alone two years ahead. But since Osborne will have set a current spending budget in concrete for 2015-16, they will be obliged to stick to that for a year anyway and might as well say so. But the two Eds need to pre-empt Osborne's attempt to strap them into his straitjacket for the following years. Before 26 June, they need to bring out optimistic, growth-creating plans to show how the benefits bill will be cut with jobs and homes. While Osborne is borrowing £245bn more than he planned to finance his failures, Labour needs to get out there now with a strong case for borrowing for success. Cameron's government is the worst in memory, his MPs lost in madness – but Labour's critique will lack full force until it stands firmly on its own deficit reduction framework and growth plan.Labour can't spell out a precise budget now: no one knows next month's figures, let alone two years ahead. But since Osborne will have set a current spending budget in concrete for 2015-16, they will be obliged to stick to that for a year anyway and might as well say so. But the two Eds need to pre-empt Osborne's attempt to strap them into his straitjacket for the following years. Before 26 June, they need to bring out optimistic, growth-creating plans to show how the benefits bill will be cut with jobs and homes. While Osborne is borrowing £245bn more than he planned to finance his failures, Labour needs to get out there now with a strong case for borrowing for success. Cameron's government is the worst in memory, his MPs lost in madness – but Labour's critique will lack full force until it stands firmly on its own deficit reduction framework and growth plan.
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