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Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different
(4 months later)
As the Conservative party has spent the past week tearing itself and the reputation of its leader to shreds, I have been logging the bulletins issued by Number 10 that claim to describe the temperamental condition of the prime minister. Faced with an unprecedented revolt against the government's programme by its own MPs, we were told that David Cameron was "relaxed". When more than half of his backbenchers went ahead and defied him, and senior members of the cabinet declared in public that they were with the rebels in spirit, his spokespeople announced that the prime minister was "profoundly relaxed". So when the Tory party completely devours itself, Number 10 will presumably tell us that David Cameron is "totally soporific".As the Conservative party has spent the past week tearing itself and the reputation of its leader to shreds, I have been logging the bulletins issued by Number 10 that claim to describe the temperamental condition of the prime minister. Faced with an unprecedented revolt against the government's programme by its own MPs, we were told that David Cameron was "relaxed". When more than half of his backbenchers went ahead and defied him, and senior members of the cabinet declared in public that they were with the rebels in spirit, his spokespeople announced that the prime minister was "profoundly relaxed". So when the Tory party completely devours itself, Number 10 will presumably tell us that David Cameron is "totally soporific".
The suggestion that the prime minister has sailed through all this humiliation in a state of zen-like serenity is, of course, false. It ruined a three-day visit to America that his aides had hoped to use as a platform to project him as a statesman. Far from being chilled, the Cameron team spent every spare moment trying to douse the firestorm back at home. They frantically put together a draft bill on a EU referendum and rushed it across the Atlantic in an attempt to defuse the revolt. That looked weak and panicky and simply didn't work. It may even have encouraged the rebellion by demonstrating once again to his backbenchers that their leader can be pushed around.The suggestion that the prime minister has sailed through all this humiliation in a state of zen-like serenity is, of course, false. It ruined a three-day visit to America that his aides had hoped to use as a platform to project him as a statesman. Far from being chilled, the Cameron team spent every spare moment trying to douse the firestorm back at home. They frantically put together a draft bill on a EU referendum and rushed it across the Atlantic in an attempt to defuse the revolt. That looked weak and panicky and simply didn't work. It may even have encouraged the rebellion by demonstrating once again to his backbenchers that their leader can be pushed around.
The prime minister and his advisers have always thought that looking strong was an essential component of the Cameron brand, that appearing united was critical to his party's chances of winning the next election, and that the Tories' monomaniacal obsession with Europe was one of the major factors behind its serial defeats in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The events of the past few days – I would call them farcical, but that would be to over-dignify the spectacle – have left him looking desperately lame, his party hopelessly divided and poisonously fixated on an issue that rarely registers as among the top 10 concerns of most voters.The prime minister and his advisers have always thought that looking strong was an essential component of the Cameron brand, that appearing united was critical to his party's chances of winning the next election, and that the Tories' monomaniacal obsession with Europe was one of the major factors behind its serial defeats in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The events of the past few days – I would call them farcical, but that would be to over-dignify the spectacle – have left him looking desperately lame, his party hopelessly divided and poisonously fixated on an issue that rarely registers as among the top 10 concerns of most voters.
Andrew Feldman, a despairing friend of the prime minister, denies describing Tory activists as "mad, swivel-eyed loons". The question that David Cameron needs to confront is this: who gave the loons the keys to the asylum? The place to start is with Mr Cameron himself and particularly the speech he made at the beginning of the year that promised an in/out referendum on membership of the European Union in the next parliament.Andrew Feldman, a despairing friend of the prime minister, denies describing Tory activists as "mad, swivel-eyed loons". The question that David Cameron needs to confront is this: who gave the loons the keys to the asylum? The place to start is with Mr Cameron himself and particularly the speech he made at the beginning of the year that promised an in/out referendum on membership of the European Union in the next parliament.
He and his people convinced themselves that this was a masterstroke. They excitedly proclaimed that they had "shot and stuffed" Nigel Farage's fox. They believed – they really did – that they had crafted a position that almost everyone in the Conservative party could unite around. They further fooled themselves into thinking that they could now forget about Europe until the general election and talk about the issues that mattered a whole lot more to most voters.He and his people convinced themselves that this was a masterstroke. They excitedly proclaimed that they had "shot and stuffed" Nigel Farage's fox. They believed – they really did – that they had crafted a position that almost everyone in the Conservative party could unite around. They further fooled themselves into thinking that they could now forget about Europe until the general election and talk about the issues that mattered a whole lot more to most voters.
There was a certain logic to that. Whatever your view about Britain's membership of the European Union, Mr Cameron's renegotiate-then-decide policy chimes with the feelings of a majority of voters as expressed to pollsters and ought to have been a position around which the bulk of a sensible Conservative party could rally. The trouble is that it was predicated on his party being willing to trust their leader and being capable of shutting up about Europe. They don't and they can't. Some of us predicted at the time that the referendum pledge would not be the end of his troubles, but the beginning of more severe ones. Four months on, Ukip's fox has not been shot, it has been fattened. The outists in the Tory party are more intoxicated and rampant than ever. The headlines are daily filled with accounts of Conservative splits.There was a certain logic to that. Whatever your view about Britain's membership of the European Union, Mr Cameron's renegotiate-then-decide policy chimes with the feelings of a majority of voters as expressed to pollsters and ought to have been a position around which the bulk of a sensible Conservative party could rally. The trouble is that it was predicated on his party being willing to trust their leader and being capable of shutting up about Europe. They don't and they can't. Some of us predicted at the time that the referendum pledge would not be the end of his troubles, but the beginning of more severe ones. Four months on, Ukip's fox has not been shot, it has been fattened. The outists in the Tory party are more intoxicated and rampant than ever. The headlines are daily filled with accounts of Conservative splits.
Some liken him to a bullied child in the playground. The reason they gang up on him is because he has repeatedly demonstrated that he will give in to them. Each time he surrenders a concession to his tormentors, they pocket it and then come back for more. As a result, he has adjusted his position on Europe more often than John Major had to change his shirt on Black Wednesday. His latest attempt to appease them is to put his support behind a private member's bill legislating for a 2017 referendum. This means that the Tories will carry on banging on about Europe for months. It guarantees further rows with his backbenchers because the sceptics and phobes will complain that Mr Cameron is not making enough effort to force the bill through Parliament. Some are already suggesting he should threaten to collapse the coalition if Nick Clegg won't drop the Lib Dems' opposition. It will also be a further waste of the prime minister's time and authority. There are not the votes to pass this bill. The Tories do not have a majority in the Commons, a blindingly obvious fact that seems to escape many of them. Even if this bill were to be passed, it would still be meaningless because one parliament cannot bind the next.Some liken him to a bullied child in the playground. The reason they gang up on him is because he has repeatedly demonstrated that he will give in to them. Each time he surrenders a concession to his tormentors, they pocket it and then come back for more. As a result, he has adjusted his position on Europe more often than John Major had to change his shirt on Black Wednesday. His latest attempt to appease them is to put his support behind a private member's bill legislating for a 2017 referendum. This means that the Tories will carry on banging on about Europe for months. It guarantees further rows with his backbenchers because the sceptics and phobes will complain that Mr Cameron is not making enough effort to force the bill through Parliament. Some are already suggesting he should threaten to collapse the coalition if Nick Clegg won't drop the Lib Dems' opposition. It will also be a further waste of the prime minister's time and authority. There are not the votes to pass this bill. The Tories do not have a majority in the Commons, a blindingly obvious fact that seems to escape many of them. Even if this bill were to be passed, it would still be meaningless because one parliament cannot bind the next.
According to the Spectator, which specialises in navigating this crazy maze, there are "eight key Eurosceptic factions" in the Tory party. Just the eight of them, eh? It is highly reminiscent of the leftwing groupuscules that flourished in the 1980s, immiserating the lives of Labour leaders and doing so much damage to that party's electoral prospects. As is the way with zealots, their demands become increasingly surreal. Some are now pressing for two referendums, a before and an after. Others clamour for Mr Cameron to publish a long shopping list of what he would seek to extract from Europe in any renegotiation. He has so far resisted doing that on the perfectly reasonable grounds that it is some way ahead, he can't yet know what sort of Europe he might be negotiating about and nor can he be sure what other EU states might want.According to the Spectator, which specialises in navigating this crazy maze, there are "eight key Eurosceptic factions" in the Tory party. Just the eight of them, eh? It is highly reminiscent of the leftwing groupuscules that flourished in the 1980s, immiserating the lives of Labour leaders and doing so much damage to that party's electoral prospects. As is the way with zealots, their demands become increasingly surreal. Some are now pressing for two referendums, a before and an after. Others clamour for Mr Cameron to publish a long shopping list of what he would seek to extract from Europe in any renegotiation. He has so far resisted doing that on the perfectly reasonable grounds that it is some way ahead, he can't yet know what sort of Europe he might be negotiating about and nor can he be sure what other EU states might want.
He is conscious that his prospects of finding allies in Europe willing to accommodate British demands are weakened if they conclude that we are bound for the exit. He can't even know whether he will be there to do a negotiation. The first stage in the sequence is the Tory party winning the next election, a prospect that its behaviour makes daily less likely.He is conscious that his prospects of finding allies in Europe willing to accommodate British demands are weakened if they conclude that we are bound for the exit. He can't even know whether he will be there to do a negotiation. The first stage in the sequence is the Tory party winning the next election, a prospect that its behaviour makes daily less likely.
That won't stop his backbenchers demanding now and in detail which powers he would try to bring back to Westminster and what opt-outs he would seek. They will do so claiming to be friends of Mr Cameron, saying that he needs to refute Lord Lawson when that grandee opines, from his home in France, that any renegotiation will be a cosmetic sham. The real reason many if not most of them want to see the prime minister's negotiating position is so that they can condemn it as inadequate. We cannot fairly place all the blame for this on Mr Cameron. John Major, a naturally consensual character working with a vanishing majority, was tortured over Europe. Margaret Thatcher, a combative personality with a landslide majority, was in part brought down over Europe.That won't stop his backbenchers demanding now and in detail which powers he would try to bring back to Westminster and what opt-outs he would seek. They will do so claiming to be friends of Mr Cameron, saying that he needs to refute Lord Lawson when that grandee opines, from his home in France, that any renegotiation will be a cosmetic sham. The real reason many if not most of them want to see the prime minister's negotiating position is so that they can condemn it as inadequate. We cannot fairly place all the blame for this on Mr Cameron. John Major, a naturally consensual character working with a vanishing majority, was tortured over Europe. Margaret Thatcher, a combative personality with a landslide majority, was in part brought down over Europe.
One of the men who triggered her fall, Geoffrey Howe, writes elsewhere on these pages. As he puts it, the Conservative party is suffering "a long nervous breakdown" that would not be so serious if it were not a problem for the nation as well. The Tory party has become so ungovernable that no putative alternative leader, including Boris Johnson, who has zigged and zagged on the issue every bit as much as Mr Cameron, could manage its self-destructive passions.One of the men who triggered her fall, Geoffrey Howe, writes elsewhere on these pages. As he puts it, the Conservative party is suffering "a long nervous breakdown" that would not be so serious if it were not a problem for the nation as well. The Tory party has become so ungovernable that no putative alternative leader, including Boris Johnson, who has zigged and zagged on the issue every bit as much as Mr Cameron, could manage its self-destructive passions.
These have been further fuelled by members of the cabinet who have abandoned any sense of collective responsibility – or even basic loyalty – to their leader. I am told that Michael Gove and Philip Hammond were rebuked by the prime minister for undermining his position by saying in public that they would vote to quit the EU if a referendum were held now. The chastisement does not appear to have been very effective. The defence secretary, who is making a habit of tossing hand grenades at his supposed commander, then went on television to declare that the legislation on gay marriage was a waste of time.These have been further fuelled by members of the cabinet who have abandoned any sense of collective responsibility – or even basic loyalty – to their leader. I am told that Michael Gove and Philip Hammond were rebuked by the prime minister for undermining his position by saying in public that they would vote to quit the EU if a referendum were held now. The chastisement does not appear to have been very effective. The defence secretary, who is making a habit of tossing hand grenades at his supposed commander, then went on television to declare that the legislation on gay marriage was a waste of time.
The Tory press also bears some responsibility. Conservative commentators express shock and horror that their party is self-harming over Europe, and sigh with dismay that it is doing so just when there is some tentatively better news on the economy. Yet those very same papers have devoted many years and many acres of space to feeding the obsession they now complain about.The Tory press also bears some responsibility. Conservative commentators express shock and horror that their party is self-harming over Europe, and sigh with dismay that it is doing so just when there is some tentatively better news on the economy. Yet those very same papers have devoted many years and many acres of space to feeding the obsession they now complain about.
Many have drawn a parallel between what is happening to David Cameron and what became of John Major in the belief that there is no more wounding insult to a Tory prime minister than to compare him with the man who tucked his shirt into his underpants. Yet I am not sure that is quite right. However badly the Tories were convulsed in the past, they just about held together. I think it is no longer impossible to imagine that ultimately the Conservative party will formally split over Europe – an outcome a referendum could actually make more likely. At which point his spin doctors will no doubt issue a bulletin informing us that David Cameron is "completely comatose".Many have drawn a parallel between what is happening to David Cameron and what became of John Major in the belief that there is no more wounding insult to a Tory prime minister than to compare him with the man who tucked his shirt into his underpants. Yet I am not sure that is quite right. However badly the Tories were convulsed in the past, they just about held together. I think it is no longer impossible to imagine that ultimately the Conservative party will formally split over Europe – an outcome a referendum could actually make more likely. At which point his spin doctors will no doubt issue a bulletin informing us that David Cameron is "completely comatose".
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