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Australia's politicians limber up for the post-truth election Australia's politicians limber up for the post-truth election
(4 months later)
Last week at the National Press Club I put to the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, that a family on an average income with a couple of kids was likely to be worse off if the Coalition won the election – contrary to Tony Abbott’s insistence that everyone would be better off under him because they would keep their tax cuts but lose the carbon tax.Last week at the National Press Club I put to the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, that a family on an average income with a couple of kids was likely to be worse off if the Coalition won the election – contrary to Tony Abbott’s insistence that everyone would be better off under him because they would keep their tax cuts but lose the carbon tax.
It seemed a pretty straightforward question. A family on average income got a tax cut of around $300 a year and extra family payments of around $100 a child to compensate for the carbon price. Tony Abbott would leave those benefits in place, without the tax, but he is also cutting the schoolkids bonus, which provides $410 a year for each child at primary school and $820 for high schoolers.It seemed a pretty straightforward question. A family on average income got a tax cut of around $300 a year and extra family payments of around $100 a child to compensate for the carbon price. Tony Abbott would leave those benefits in place, without the tax, but he is also cutting the schoolkids bonus, which provides $410 a year for each child at primary school and $820 for high schoolers.
Hockey had just done a good job explaining why the nation’s budget bottom line could no longer afford current levels of spending, but basic mathematics still indicated that taking away the schoolkids bonus would mean a net loss on the budget bottom line for many lower income families compared with what they would get under Labor.Hockey had just done a good job explaining why the nation’s budget bottom line could no longer afford current levels of spending, but basic mathematics still indicated that taking away the schoolkids bonus would mean a net loss on the budget bottom line for many lower income families compared with what they would get under Labor.
“No,” Hockey answered bluntly. Why? “Because Labor will remove the schoolkids bonus if they're re-elected. You know it as well as I do. This is what they do. They promise these things and then they take them away.”“No,” Hockey answered bluntly. Why? “Because Labor will remove the schoolkids bonus if they're re-elected. You know it as well as I do. This is what they do. They promise these things and then they take them away.”
And that was supposed to be it. Case closed.And that was supposed to be it. Case closed.
Yes, Labor has cast a lot of policy promises overboard (so has the Coalition, more recently, for that matter) And yes, many voters might wonder what backflip might come next. However Labor’s stated policy is to keep the schoolkids bonus if re-elected.Yes, Labor has cast a lot of policy promises overboard (so has the Coalition, more recently, for that matter) And yes, many voters might wonder what backflip might come next. However Labor’s stated policy is to keep the schoolkids bonus if re-elected.
But now Labor’s own actions and the Coalition’s relentless attack has so eroded trust in the government that “don’t believe what they say” is apparently seen as an adequate response to a factual question.But now Labor’s own actions and the Coalition’s relentless attack has so eroded trust in the government that “don’t believe what they say” is apparently seen as an adequate response to a factual question.
Abbott gave the same answer to the Sunday Telegraph when it reported modelling by the University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling that came up with a more detailed version of the net impact of Coalition policy than my rough calculations.Abbott gave the same answer to the Sunday Telegraph when it reported modelling by the University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling that came up with a more detailed version of the net impact of Coalition policy than my rough calculations.
It’s another sign that 2013 could be Australia’s ultimate post-truth election.It’s another sign that 2013 could be Australia’s ultimate post-truth election.
Each side is arguing not just against the policies the other has actually proposed, but against their own preferred construction of their political opponent - the largely imaginary enemy they would prefer to fight.Each side is arguing not just against the policies the other has actually proposed, but against their own preferred construction of their political opponent - the largely imaginary enemy they would prefer to fight.
The Coalition argues nothing Labor says can be believed, and then inserts its own less favourable version of Labor policies and budgeting.The Coalition argues nothing Labor says can be believed, and then inserts its own less favourable version of Labor policies and budgeting.
Labor frontbenchers talk so much about Abbott’s dastardly intention to “cut to the bone” they seem to imagine him more as a forensic pathologist, or maybe a crazed butcher, than a possible prime minister.Labor frontbenchers talk so much about Abbott’s dastardly intention to “cut to the bone” they seem to imagine him more as a forensic pathologist, or maybe a crazed butcher, than a possible prime minister.
Abbott has “reserved the right” to keep all the spending cuts Labor has proposed, but presumably, since they proposed them, Labor doesn’t think these are of a bone-cutting nature.Abbott has “reserved the right” to keep all the spending cuts Labor has proposed, but presumably, since they proposed them, Labor doesn’t think these are of a bone-cutting nature.
And yes, Abbott has said he will cut the schoolkids bonus and the low income superannuation contribution, and delay for two years the increase in the superannuation guarantee.And yes, Abbott has said he will cut the schoolkids bonus and the low income superannuation contribution, and delay for two years the increase in the superannuation guarantee.
But he’s also proposing to spend more on paid parental leave and to take away the carbon tax which – whatever you think about the climate change merits of that policy – should cut power bills.But he’s also proposing to spend more on paid parental leave and to take away the carbon tax which – whatever you think about the climate change merits of that policy – should cut power bills.
The more eager cost-cutters on his own side of politics worry a Prime Minister Abbott might be too cautious.The more eager cost-cutters on his own side of politics worry a Prime Minister Abbott might be too cautious.
And shielded by its assertion that nothing Labor says can be trusted – not even the numbers in the budget that Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson has explained would be the same no matter who was in government – the Coalition is not planning to produce a full list of its proposed savings until the pre-election fiscal outlook is released 10 days into the election campaign.And shielded by its assertion that nothing Labor says can be trusted – not even the numbers in the budget that Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson has explained would be the same no matter who was in government – the Coalition is not planning to produce a full list of its proposed savings until the pre-election fiscal outlook is released 10 days into the election campaign.
In the absence of detail, the government fills in the blank, claiming that as well as the announced cuts, the Coalition has another slate of secret ones.In the absence of detail, the government fills in the blank, claiming that as well as the announced cuts, the Coalition has another slate of secret ones.
“He is going to do a lot more cutting and we know from just being at the start of Abbott's cuts to the bone, that the people he has got in his sights are working Australians and their families,” Gillard says at most available opportunities.“He is going to do a lot more cutting and we know from just being at the start of Abbott's cuts to the bone, that the people he has got in his sights are working Australians and their families,” Gillard says at most available opportunities.
She’s right that there is a gap between Abbott’s pledge of an earlier return to surplus and the policies he has on the table to achieve it. But we don’t yet know how he intends to fill it, or when he intends to return to surplus for that matter.She’s right that there is a gap between Abbott’s pledge of an earlier return to surplus and the policies he has on the table to achieve it. But we don’t yet know how he intends to fill it, or when he intends to return to surplus for that matter.
Politicians have always tried to paint their opponents in an unflattering way and cast doubt upon their promises and credibility.Politicians have always tried to paint their opponents in an unflattering way and cast doubt upon their promises and credibility.
But increasingly the “narrative”, the story politicians tell about themselves and their opponents, bears scant relationship to the actual policies on offer.But increasingly the “narrative”, the story politicians tell about themselves and their opponents, bears scant relationship to the actual policies on offer.
Journalism, and the new trend towards "fact checking" units, is supposed to separate the policies from the stories.Journalism, and the new trend towards "fact checking" units, is supposed to separate the policies from the stories.
But as Mitt Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse famously declared during the US presidential election, “We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.”But as Mitt Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse famously declared during the US presidential election, “We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.”
The challenge is to make sure that come polling day, voters can still make a decision on the basis of facts.The challenge is to make sure that come polling day, voters can still make a decision on the basis of facts.
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