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Syria's arms race has accelerated through international pressure Syria's arms race has accelerated through international pressure
(about 7 hours later)
The history of conflicts suggests they are easier to escalate than to de-escalate – something events in Syria have demonstrated in abundance over the last few days.The history of conflicts suggests they are easier to escalate than to de-escalate – something events in Syria have demonstrated in abundance over the last few days.
Moves by UK and France to end the EU arms embargo to allow them – should they wish – to arm "moderate" rebels has been answered in quick order by President Bashar al-Assad's announcement that he has taken delivery of the first batch of sophisticated S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Moves by UK and France to end the EU arms embargo to allow them – should they wish – to arm "moderate" rebels has been answered in quick order by President Bashar al-Assad's announcement that he expects delivery of the first batch of sophisticated S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.
The sale of these weapons should not be seen simply for their military utility. As David Cameron and foreign secretary William Hague have stepped up the rhetoric, arguing that an end to the arms embargo was necessary to persuade the Assad regime to engage in negotiations to end the war, Russia – the regime's biggest arms supplier – unsurprisingly has trumped that threat. The sale of these weapons should not be seen simply for their military utility. As David Cameron and foreign secretary William Hague have stepped up the rhetoric, arguing that an end to the arms embargo was necessary to persuade the Assad regime to engage in negotiations to end the war, Russia – the regime's biggest arms supplier – unsurprisingly trumped that threat.
As Chatham House's Christopher Phillips pointed out earlier this week, Britain's calculation over ending the embargo has in any case been based on flawed logic.As Chatham House's Christopher Phillips pointed out earlier this week, Britain's calculation over ending the embargo has in any case been based on flawed logic.
"The threat of arming the rebels," argues Phillips, "is unlikely to convince Assad to change his stance. Every time the rebels have made gains, the regime has been sent a vast supply of arms, financial support and even fighters from its key international allies Russia, Iran and Hezbollah."The threat of arming the rebels," argues Phillips, "is unlikely to convince Assad to change his stance. Every time the rebels have made gains, the regime has been sent a vast supply of arms, financial support and even fighters from its key international allies Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
"Assad knows they will match or exceed any new weapons sent to the rebels. Unsurprisingly, within hours of the EU decision, Russia announced it would go ahead with deliveries of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria to deter foreign intervention.""Assad knows they will match or exceed any new weapons sent to the rebels. Unsurprisingly, within hours of the EU decision, Russia announced it would go ahead with deliveries of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria to deter foreign intervention."
The chain of events that has followed Britain and France's efforts to torpedo the EU embargo may have made the situation regionally more dangerous. The Anglo-French threat, followed by the Russian vow to supply the anti-aircraft system – which Moscow has made clear is designed to prevent western intervention – has now drawn the threat from Israel that it might target the S-300s.The chain of events that has followed Britain and France's efforts to torpedo the EU embargo may have made the situation regionally more dangerous. The Anglo-French threat, followed by the Russian vow to supply the anti-aircraft system – which Moscow has made clear is designed to prevent western intervention – has now drawn the threat from Israel that it might target the S-300s.
This is in the context of growing regional instability that has already seen renewed violence in the Lebanese coastal city of Tripoli, rocket fire on Shia areas of the same country, and growing instability in Iraq.This is in the context of growing regional instability that has already seen renewed violence in the Lebanese coastal city of Tripoli, rocket fire on Shia areas of the same country, and growing instability in Iraq.
More worryingly, the UK and France appear to have bet everything on a Geneva II peace conference next month – the stumbling blocks of which seem no different to those encountered at the first Geneva conference. In the intervening period not only has the Syrian National Coalition, backed by the west as the vehicle for representing the opposition's demands, failed to become more representative and relevant it has become farcically less so. More worryingly, the UK and France appear to have bet everything on a Geneva II peace conference next month – the stumbling blocks of which seem no different to those encountered at the first Geneva conference. In the interim, not only has the Syrian National Coalition – backed by the west as the vehicle for representing the opposition's demands – failed to become more representative and relevant, it has become farcically less so.
The SNC's latest preconditions for even participating in the talks make it likely that it will be this western-backed opposition that will torpedo Geneva II at this rate even as the Assad regime confirmed it would send representatives, which would be an own goal of spectacular proportions.The SNC's latest preconditions for even participating in the talks make it likely that it will be this western-backed opposition that will torpedo Geneva II at this rate even as the Assad regime confirmed it would send representatives, which would be an own goal of spectacular proportions.
Perhaps it should not be surprising. Inherent in the British strategy of offering the prospect of arms to the "right" and vetted rebels was the risk that even such a vague promise would be a strong disincentive to negotiate.Perhaps it should not be surprising. Inherent in the British strategy of offering the prospect of arms to the "right" and vetted rebels was the risk that even such a vague promise would be a strong disincentive to negotiate.
If all this was dangerous enough on the ground in the region, on the diplomatic front Hague and Cameron's tactics risk backfiring too. The fragile EU unanimity on a joint response to Syria has been jettisoned in favour of what looks like something of a free-for-all, allowing individual countries to make their own judgments on how to back the opposition. If all this was dangerous enough on the ground in the region, on the diplomatic front Hague and Cameron's tactics risk backfiring too. The fragile EU unanimity over Syria has been jettisoned in favour of what looks like something of a free-for-all, allowing individual countries to make their own judgments on how to back the opposition.
This matters because, lacking any evidence that either the rebels or regime are preparing to back down, only some agreed and united international pressure has any chance of reducing the terrible and spreading toll of the violence.This matters because, lacking any evidence that either the rebels or regime are preparing to back down, only some agreed and united international pressure has any chance of reducing the terrible and spreading toll of the violence.
Today that unity looks more distant than ever.Today that unity looks more distant than ever.
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