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| Ed Miliband's welfare speech reaps benefits for Labour | Ed Miliband's welfare speech reaps benefits for Labour |
| (4 months later) | |
| Politicians usually want to make a splash with their policy announcements. So Ed Miliband will have been concerned that last week his much-trumpeted speech on social security did not make any of the nation's front pages the morning after it was delivered. The Labour leader should not be bothered. | Politicians usually want to make a splash with their policy announcements. So Ed Miliband will have been concerned that last week his much-trumpeted speech on social security did not make any of the nation's front pages the morning after it was delivered. The Labour leader should not be bothered. |
| When it was analysed, the words appeared as a Rorschach test for political commentators: whatever they saw in Miliband's speech told readers about themselves rather than its content. In fact, as more perceptive Miliband-watchers concede, the speech – sandwiched between two meaty interventions by shadow chancellor Ed Balls – has implanted into the public's mind that Labour "gets it" on the economy and welfare. | When it was analysed, the words appeared as a Rorschach test for political commentators: whatever they saw in Miliband's speech told readers about themselves rather than its content. In fact, as more perceptive Miliband-watchers concede, the speech – sandwiched between two meaty interventions by shadow chancellor Ed Balls – has implanted into the public's mind that Labour "gets it" on the economy and welfare. |
| What Miliband and Balls have demonstrated is an understanding that political impetus and economic necessity points towards the need to accept the government's spending "envelope". Freed from the debate about affordability, they can now make the case for a different set of priorities. In his speech, Miliband highlighted the broken bits of Britain: falling and low wages, unemployment and underemployment, high childcare costs and a crisis in housing. This is far from the scrounger stereotype of recent government pronouncements: no feckless parents for whom welfare sponsors a destructive lifestyle. However, Miliband had enough policies that would disturb the rank and file – and define his independence from the perceived profligate legacy of the left on social security. An example might be his acceptance of fitness-to-work testing, widely loathed by activists. Or linking benefits to contributions, which unless designed properly would disadvantage stay-at-home mothers. | What Miliband and Balls have demonstrated is an understanding that political impetus and economic necessity points towards the need to accept the government's spending "envelope". Freed from the debate about affordability, they can now make the case for a different set of priorities. In his speech, Miliband highlighted the broken bits of Britain: falling and low wages, unemployment and underemployment, high childcare costs and a crisis in housing. This is far from the scrounger stereotype of recent government pronouncements: no feckless parents for whom welfare sponsors a destructive lifestyle. However, Miliband had enough policies that would disturb the rank and file – and define his independence from the perceived profligate legacy of the left on social security. An example might be his acceptance of fitness-to-work testing, widely loathed by activists. Or linking benefits to contributions, which unless designed properly would disadvantage stay-at-home mothers. |
| Miliband's heavily trailed three-year cap on welfare spending appeared to have been an afterthought, thrown in at the end of the speech to spike the guns of the chancellor who will make a similar-sounding pledge later this month in the comprehensive spending review. What was important was that his policies consider how people organise and view themselves in society – and set up fair rules so that they could do so. Handing councils' powers to negotiate lower rents and turn welfare payments into cash streams to build houses represent rules-based interventions into the current housing market free-for-all. The Labour leader was making it clear he was less bothered about peer effects – a staple of Cameroonian thinking where people nudge themselves into better positions in life or mimic friends' behaviour. The coalition – particularly its Tory end – makes great play of these effects, which, in welfare, centre around the stigma of claiming benefits. You might also expect peer-effect policies to centre on a system of rewards – for example, giving jobseekers points for achieving short-term goals. Miliband sensibly chose not to offer small-scale tinkering but outlined bigger-bang changes. | Miliband's heavily trailed three-year cap on welfare spending appeared to have been an afterthought, thrown in at the end of the speech to spike the guns of the chancellor who will make a similar-sounding pledge later this month in the comprehensive spending review. What was important was that his policies consider how people organise and view themselves in society – and set up fair rules so that they could do so. Handing councils' powers to negotiate lower rents and turn welfare payments into cash streams to build houses represent rules-based interventions into the current housing market free-for-all. The Labour leader was making it clear he was less bothered about peer effects – a staple of Cameroonian thinking where people nudge themselves into better positions in life or mimic friends' behaviour. The coalition – particularly its Tory end – makes great play of these effects, which, in welfare, centre around the stigma of claiming benefits. You might also expect peer-effect policies to centre on a system of rewards – for example, giving jobseekers points for achieving short-term goals. Miliband sensibly chose not to offer small-scale tinkering but outlined bigger-bang changes. |
| Even though we are two years away from national polls, Miliband is staking a lot by saying that he will be defined by what Labour will do in office, rather than what they won't. The risk is that your opponents seize on some apparent gaffe or spot a U-turn or conjure a tax-burdening measure that will drain public support from your party. Sometimes it's all three together – see how the coalition leapt on the news that Labour no longer plans to reverse the government's decision to abolish child benefit for higher earners. | Even though we are two years away from national polls, Miliband is staking a lot by saying that he will be defined by what Labour will do in office, rather than what they won't. The risk is that your opponents seize on some apparent gaffe or spot a U-turn or conjure a tax-burdening measure that will drain public support from your party. Sometimes it's all three together – see how the coalition leapt on the news that Labour no longer plans to reverse the government's decision to abolish child benefit for higher earners. |
| However, Miliband is also signalling areas of common ground with the Liberal Democrats, notably on childcare. On welfare the battle is really with the Tories, who think that their mix of authoritarian tough love will squeeze the poor but not enough to fuel a voters' revolt. It's a gamble. If Cameron loses control of his political destiny, it will hand Miliband his. | However, Miliband is also signalling areas of common ground with the Liberal Democrats, notably on childcare. On welfare the battle is really with the Tories, who think that their mix of authoritarian tough love will squeeze the poor but not enough to fuel a voters' revolt. It's a gamble. If Cameron loses control of his political destiny, it will hand Miliband his. |
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