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Rebels’ Losses in Syria Complicate Options for U.S. Aid Rebels’ Losses in Syria Complicate Options for U.S. Aid
(35 minutes later)
WASHINGTON — President Bashar al-Assad’s gains on the battlefield have called the United States’ strategy on Syria into question, prompting the Obama administration to consider military options, including arming the rebels and airstrikes by the United States and its allies to protect civilians and the Syrian opposition, administration officials said on Monday. WASHINGTON — President Bashar al-Assad’s gains on the battlefield have called the United States’ strategy on Syria into question, prompting the Obama administration to again consider military options, including arming the rebels and conducting airstrikes to protect civilians and the Syrian opposition, administration officials said on Monday.
Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a trip to the Middle East this week in part to focus on the Syria crisis, and the deteriorating situation in the country is the subject of a round of meetings inside the administration. The heightened debate on Syria reflects a concern that military developments on the ground have outpaced the Obama administration’s deliberations over how to respond to the crisis, which has killed more than 80,000 Syrians.Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a trip to the Middle East this week in part to focus on the Syria crisis, and the deteriorating situation in the country is the subject of a round of meetings inside the administration. The heightened debate on Syria reflects a concern that military developments on the ground have outpaced the Obama administration’s deliberations over how to respond to the crisis, which has killed more than 80,000 Syrians.
So far President Obama has steadfastly resisted even a modest involvement in the conflict, and there was no sign on Monday that a decision to use American force was imminent.So far President Obama has steadfastly resisted even a modest involvement in the conflict, and there was no sign on Monday that a decision to use American force was imminent.
But Hezbollah’s large-scale entry into the fight in recent weeks and the Assad government’s firepower has tilted the battlefield in favor of the Syrian government.But Hezbollah’s large-scale entry into the fight in recent weeks and the Assad government’s firepower has tilted the battlefield in favor of the Syrian government.
“I think the rebels are in trouble,” said Jeffrey White, a former Middle East analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Speed is of the essence. The regime’s momentum needs to be brought to a halt.”“I think the rebels are in trouble,” said Jeffrey White, a former Middle East analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Speed is of the essence. The regime’s momentum needs to be brought to a halt.”
Gen. Salim Idris, the head of the military wing of the Syrian opposition, discussed the rebels’ deteriorating position in a phone call last weekend with A. Elizabeth Jones, the acting assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs.Gen. Salim Idris, the head of the military wing of the Syrian opposition, discussed the rebels’ deteriorating position in a phone call last weekend with A. Elizabeth Jones, the acting assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs.
At the center of the Obama administration’s strategy are its hopes for a peace conference it has been trying for several weeks to convene in Geneva with Russian support. The American goal has been to bring together representatives of the Syrian opposition and the Assad government to negotiate a transitional government that would take control if Mr. Assad gave up power.At the center of the Obama administration’s strategy are its hopes for a peace conference it has been trying for several weeks to convene in Geneva with Russian support. The American goal has been to bring together representatives of the Syrian opposition and the Assad government to negotiate a transitional government that would take control if Mr. Assad gave up power.
But General Idris said in an interview on Friday that the rebels’ position had been so weakened that they would have no leverage at a Geneva meeting and thus would not attend the conference unless they received additional arms and ammunition. But General Idris said in an interview on Friday that the rebels’ position had been so weakened that they would have little leverage at a Geneva meeting and thus would not attend the conference unless they received additional arms and ammunition.
Jen Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said on Monday at least 100 Syrians who had been fleeing Qusayr, a town in western Syria near the border with Lebanon that was recently captured by Hezbollah fighters and Mr. Assad’s forces, were killed this past weekend in “an abhorrent massacre.”Jen Psaki, the State Department spokeswoman, said on Monday at least 100 Syrians who had been fleeing Qusayr, a town in western Syria near the border with Lebanon that was recently captured by Hezbollah fighters and Mr. Assad’s forces, were killed this past weekend in “an abhorrent massacre.”
“We are taking a closer look at what we can continue to do to help the opposition,” said Ms. Psaki, who declined to provide specifics.“We are taking a closer look at what we can continue to do to help the opposition,” said Ms. Psaki, who declined to provide specifics.
So far, the United States has provided food rations and medical kits to the armed wing of the Syrian opposition. The additional nonlethal aid to the military wing of the opposition that Mr. Kerry announced in late April, which might include armored vehicles, has not yet been delivered, Obama administration officials said. So far, the United States has provided food rations and medical kits to the armed wing of the Syrian opposition. The additional nonlethal aid to the military wing of the opposition that Mr. Kerry announced in late April, which might include armored vehicles, has not yet been delivered, Obama administration officials said. At the time of the announcement, Mr. Kerry suggested that it would be sent soon so it could have a “direct impact” on the battlefield.
The British and French, who pushed successfully for a repeal of the European Union arms embargo, have said they might provide arms in August, which would presumably be after a Geneva conference, if it is held. But in his interview on Friday, General Salim said those weapons would come too late.The British and French, who pushed successfully for a repeal of the European Union arms embargo, have said they might provide arms in August, which would presumably be after a Geneva conference, if it is held. But in his interview on Friday, General Salim said those weapons would come too late.
“We can’t wait until August,” General Salim said. “It is a joke.”“We can’t wait until August,” General Salim said. “It is a joke.”
Mr. Kerry held a video conference on Monday with William Hague, the British foreign secretary, while sub-cabinet-level officials met on Syria at the White House.Mr. Kerry held a video conference on Monday with William Hague, the British foreign secretary, while sub-cabinet-level officials met on Syria at the White House.
The recent gains by the Assad government reflect a new strategy that combines the use of Hezbollah fighters as a paramilitary force with its long-range artillery, surface-to-surface missiles and air power. The Assad government’s recent gains reflect a new strategy that combines Hezbollah fighters as a paramilitary force with its long-range artillery, surface-to-surface missiles and air power.
The strategy, some American analysts believe, has been overseen by Qassim Suleimani, the head of the Iranian Quds Force, which has been helping the Assad government in its fight against the resistance.The strategy, some American analysts believe, has been overseen by Qassim Suleimani, the head of the Iranian Quds Force, which has been helping the Assad government in its fight against the resistance.
The Assad government had some advantages in capturing Qusayr, as the city was near Hezbollah’s base of operations in Lebanon.The Assad government had some advantages in capturing Qusayr, as the city was near Hezbollah’s base of operations in Lebanon.
Having seized the city, the Syrian government and its Hezbollah allies are believed to be setting their sights on Homs and even Aleppo, which would be a bigger military challenge.Having seized the city, the Syrian government and its Hezbollah allies are believed to be setting their sights on Homs and even Aleppo, which would be a bigger military challenge.
The rebels are badly overmatched compared to a government that has long-range artillery, surface-to-surface missiles, aircraft and tanks. Equipped with light weapons, the opposition needs effective anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons, military analysts say. The rebels are badly overmatched compared to a government with long-range artillery, surface-to-surface missiles, aircraft and tanks. Equipped with light weapons, the opposition needs effective anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons, military analysts say.
Even so, some senior administration officials believe that with Hezbollah joining the fight, arming the rebels may no longer be sufficient to reverse the Assad government’s gains unless the United States takes additional steps like carrying out airstrikes against Syrian forces. A no-fly zone, however, would involve the Obama administration in the sort of open-ended military operation it has sought to avoid.Even so, some senior administration officials believe that with Hezbollah joining the fight, arming the rebels may no longer be sufficient to reverse the Assad government’s gains unless the United States takes additional steps like carrying out airstrikes against Syrian forces. A no-fly zone, however, would involve the Obama administration in the sort of open-ended military operation it has sought to avoid.
Mr. Obama has said that conclusive proof of the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government would trigger greater American involvement, though he has declined to be specific. The United States and it allies say they have evidence that those weapons have been used. Mr. Obama has said that conclusive proof of the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government would trigger greater American involvement, though he has declined to be specific. The United States has said that it has evidence sarin has been used but that the circumstances of that use are not entirely clear.
But the escalation of the war, the participation of Hezbollah and the increasing sectarian character of the fight are also worrying American officials, especially as they are occurring in a nation that has large stocks of chemical weapons that might fall into the wrong hands. But the war’s escalation, Hezbollah’s participation and the fight’s growing sectarian character are also worrying American officials, especially as they occur in a nation with large stocks of chemical weapons that might fall into the wrong hands.
By some accounts, two strands of the debate — how to respond to the possible use of chemical weapons and how to deal with the recent setbacks to the rebels — are beginning to merge in the administration’s deliberations.By some accounts, two strands of the debate — how to respond to the possible use of chemical weapons and how to deal with the recent setbacks to the rebels — are beginning to merge in the administration’s deliberations.