This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/11/ukip-support-falls-main-parties-weak
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Ukip support falls back but main parties remain weak on economy | Ukip support falls back but main parties remain weak on economy |
| (4 months later) | |
| Ukip has fallen back from the giddying heights it reached after May's council elections, although the party remains a force to be reckoned with – as does the anti-political mood it represents. | Ukip has fallen back from the giddying heights it reached after May's council elections, although the party remains a force to be reckoned with – as does the anti-political mood it represents. |
| That is the message of a new Guardian/ICM poll, which shows that Ukip has slipped back by a substantial six points from last month's record-breaking level of support – leaving it on 12%. | That is the message of a new Guardian/ICM poll, which shows that Ukip has slipped back by a substantial six points from last month's record-breaking level of support – leaving it on 12%. |
| The poll shows that Labour is ahead on 36% (up two on the month) and the Conservatives on 29% (up one). | The poll shows that Labour is ahead on 36% (up two on the month) and the Conservatives on 29% (up one). |
| Nevertheless Ukip's 12% is three points above its previous high point in the Guardian/ICM series until last month. | Nevertheless Ukip's 12% is three points above its previous high point in the Guardian/ICM series until last month. |
| That leaves Nigel Farage's party tied with the Lib Dems, who inch up a single point from last month's nadir of 11%. The combined score of other smaller parties is 10%, made up of 2% for the Greens and a buoyant 8% for the combined Scottish and Welsh nationalists. | That leaves Nigel Farage's party tied with the Lib Dems, who inch up a single point from last month's nadir of 11%. The combined score of other smaller parties is 10%, made up of 2% for the Greens and a buoyant 8% for the combined Scottish and Welsh nationalists. |
| On the all-important question of handling the slump, both the major parties are losing trust in parallel. David Cameron and George Osborne maintain a nine-point lead over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls as the most trusted team for economic management, but only because faith in the Labour duo is waning almost as fast. | On the all-important question of handling the slump, both the major parties are losing trust in parallel. David Cameron and George Osborne maintain a nine-point lead over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls as the most trusted team for economic management, but only because faith in the Labour duo is waning almost as fast. |
| In December last year, when voters were asked to put aside party preference and concentrate on who could manage the economy properly, 35% preferred Cameron and Osborne and 24% Balls and Miliband. Today those respective figures are 28% and 19%. A growing band – now a majority of 52% – either say "neither", "don't know" or refuse to answer. | In December last year, when voters were asked to put aside party preference and concentrate on who could manage the economy properly, 35% preferred Cameron and Osborne and 24% Balls and Miliband. Today those respective figures are 28% and 19%. A growing band – now a majority of 52% – either say "neither", "don't know" or refuse to answer. |
| Labour has never polled well on economic competence since Gordon Brown lost power in 2010, but – after a week which saw both Balls and Miliband make big speeches about the need to contain elements of public spending – the party will be bitterly disappointed to have fallen below 20% on this score for the first time with ICM. | Labour has never polled well on economic competence since Gordon Brown lost power in 2010, but – after a week which saw both Balls and Miliband make big speeches about the need to contain elements of public spending – the party will be bitterly disappointed to have fallen below 20% on this score for the first time with ICM. |
| Its only comfort is that trust in the Tories has fallen even more sharply, at a time when the coalition's top brass is quietly hoping it can see green financial shoots. | Its only comfort is that trust in the Tories has fallen even more sharply, at a time when the coalition's top brass is quietly hoping it can see green financial shoots. |
| At the start of last year, 46% trusted Cameron and Osborne with the economy, a proportion which had already fallen to 35% by last December, and which has now fallen again – to sink below 30% for the first time. | At the start of last year, 46% trusted Cameron and Osborne with the economy, a proportion which had already fallen to 35% by last December, and which has now fallen again – to sink below 30% for the first time. |
| Distaste for the political mainstream is also evident in increasingly miserable personal ratings for both Cameron and Miliband. | Distaste for the political mainstream is also evident in increasingly miserable personal ratings for both Cameron and Miliband. |
| Months of Conservative infighting have started to register with the voters. The perception of unity used to be a major strength for Cameron; as recently as the end of last year, voters believed he had the backing of his party, by 62% to 29%. Today, only 44% accept that suggestion while 45% disagree, making party division a net negative for Cameron for the first time with ICM, even if only marginally. | Months of Conservative infighting have started to register with the voters. The perception of unity used to be a major strength for Cameron; as recently as the end of last year, voters believed he had the backing of his party, by 62% to 29%. Today, only 44% accept that suggestion while 45% disagree, making party division a net negative for Cameron for the first time with ICM, even if only marginally. |
| Miliband fares much better on this count – judged to be backed by his party by 65% to 20%, a 45-point gap in his favour, which builds on the already-impressive balance of +43 that he scored at the end of last year, and the somewhat smaller positive scores for unity that he notched up earlier in his leadership. | Miliband fares much better on this count – judged to be backed by his party by 65% to 20%, a 45-point gap in his favour, which builds on the already-impressive balance of +43 that he scored at the end of last year, and the somewhat smaller positive scores for unity that he notched up earlier in his leadership. |
| On other characteristics, however, the Labour leader polls much less well. One closely watched measure of leaders' standing is voters' faith in their being "good in a crisis". | On other characteristics, however, the Labour leader polls much less well. One closely watched measure of leaders' standing is voters' faith in their being "good in a crisis". |
| In December 2011, David Cameron scored well on this count – 50% said he was good in a crisis and only 40% said the reverse. Even after the omnishambolic year that followed, he was still rated as good in a crisis by 48% in December 2012, compared with 44% who thought he wasn't. | In December 2011, David Cameron scored well on this count – 50% said he was good in a crisis and only 40% said the reverse. Even after the omnishambolic year that followed, he was still rated as good in a crisis by 48% in December 2012, compared with 44% who thought he wasn't. |
| But today, despite Cameron's recent dispatch of statesmanlike duties in the aftermath of the murder of Lee Rigby in Woolwich, only 37% of voters say his crisis-handling skills are good, while 52% think they are not, giving a net negative of -15. | But today, despite Cameron's recent dispatch of statesmanlike duties in the aftermath of the murder of Lee Rigby in Woolwich, only 37% of voters say his crisis-handling skills are good, while 52% think they are not, giving a net negative of -15. |
| By contrast Miliband has always struggled on this test of leadership mettle – by double-digit margins voters have always refused to believe he is good in a crisis – and his position is not improving. | By contrast Miliband has always struggled on this test of leadership mettle – by double-digit margins voters have always refused to believe he is good in a crisis – and his position is not improving. |
| His 21%-44% negative score on this count in December 2011 had narrowed somewhat to 28%-45% by the end of 2012, but opinion is now leaning against him more heavily again on this score – by 21%-49%. | His 21%-44% negative score on this count in December 2011 had narrowed somewhat to 28%-45% by the end of 2012, but opinion is now leaning against him more heavily again on this score – by 21%-49%. |
| The 28-point gap between those two figures is not quite a record (he did even worse in April 2012), but a perceived lack of resolve in emergencies is nonetheless a huge impediment for an aspiring prime minister. | The 28-point gap between those two figures is not quite a record (he did even worse in April 2012), but a perceived lack of resolve in emergencies is nonetheless a huge impediment for an aspiring prime minister. |
| A big polling negative for the old Etonian prime minister has long been a perceived gulf with ordinary people, but today he sinks to new depths on this score – only 29% now think he "understands people like me", as opposed to 65% who disagree. Miliband has tended to do much less badly on this empathy question, but by 46% to 41% voters also say he fails to understand them, a five-point gap that represents a modest worsening of his position on this score since the end of last year, when the balance against him was only 46%-44%. | A big polling negative for the old Etonian prime minister has long been a perceived gulf with ordinary people, but today he sinks to new depths on this score – only 29% now think he "understands people like me", as opposed to 65% who disagree. Miliband has tended to do much less badly on this empathy question, but by 46% to 41% voters also say he fails to understand them, a five-point gap that represents a modest worsening of his position on this score since the end of last year, when the balance against him was only 46%-44%. |
| As well as showing declining respect for Britain's chief political leaders, the poll charts remarkable stability in the race between them – Labour's seven-point edge over the Conservatives is very much in line with the recent average in the ICM series, where – since last October – the lead has stood at an average of 7.5 points. | As well as showing declining respect for Britain's chief political leaders, the poll charts remarkable stability in the race between them – Labour's seven-point edge over the Conservatives is very much in line with the recent average in the ICM series, where – since last October – the lead has stood at an average of 7.5 points. |
| That is a somewhat smaller gap than in some other polls, largely because of adjustments that ICM makes for so-called "partial refusers" – respondents who reveal how they voted in 2010, but not their plans for next time. | That is a somewhat smaller gap than in some other polls, largely because of adjustments that ICM makes for so-called "partial refusers" – respondents who reveal how they voted in 2010, but not their plans for next time. |
| In Tuesday's poll, ICM's adjustments make a substantial difference to the headline results (reducing a 12-point Labour lead to just seven) because of the record high numbers of such "shy voters", who represent 15% of the sample. | In Tuesday's poll, ICM's adjustments make a substantial difference to the headline results (reducing a 12-point Labour lead to just seven) because of the record high numbers of such "shy voters", who represent 15% of the sample. |
| The split of the partial refusers is fairly typical – the biggest chunk, 39%, are "shy Tories", a third – 33% – are "shy Lib Dems" and only 19% are "shy Labour"; when ICM applies assumptions that half of such voters "return home" to the party that they backed at the last election this works to reduce the Labour lead. | The split of the partial refusers is fairly typical – the biggest chunk, 39%, are "shy Tories", a third – 33% – are "shy Lib Dems" and only 19% are "shy Labour"; when ICM applies assumptions that half of such voters "return home" to the party that they backed at the last election this works to reduce the Labour lead. |
| ICM's Martin Boon explained: "With voters plainly fed up with politicians of all stripes, it seems that fewer are ready to admit – perhaps even to themselves – who they will plump for next time. That leaves us with more adjusting to do than normal." | ICM's Martin Boon explained: "With voters plainly fed up with politicians of all stripes, it seems that fewer are ready to admit – perhaps even to themselves – who they will plump for next time. That leaves us with more adjusting to do than normal." |
| ICM believes such adjustments are central to the accuracy of modern opinion polls. Its adjustment procedures date back to 1992 – the last general election that the polls got spectacularly wrong – and it has increased accuracy in successive general elections since. | ICM believes such adjustments are central to the accuracy of modern opinion polls. Its adjustment procedures date back to 1992 – the last general election that the polls got spectacularly wrong – and it has increased accuracy in successive general elections since. |
| • ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-9 June 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. | • ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-9 June 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |