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| Qatari leaders signal they are ready to change guard | Qatari leaders signal they are ready to change guard |
| (about 21 hours later) | |
| Change is afoot in the world's richest nation, Qatar. Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and his Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, are said to be putting in place an ordered succession plan for the tiny Gulf emirate. | Change is afoot in the world's richest nation, Qatar. Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and his Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, are said to be putting in place an ordered succession plan for the tiny Gulf emirate. |
| The transition will see them leave a stage they have dominated for nearly two decades enabling the emir's son Crown Prince Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and younger ministers to take charge. | The transition will see them leave a stage they have dominated for nearly two decades enabling the emir's son Crown Prince Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and younger ministers to take charge. |
| Rumours have been circulating for several months but in recent weeks, discreet communications have been passed on to various diplomats and leading businessmen alerting them that change is coming. | Rumours have been circulating for several months but in recent weeks, discreet communications have been passed on to various diplomats and leading businessmen alerting them that change is coming. |
| But no-one knows when or how exactly this change will take place. Those who have offered likely dates and "inside tracks" are simply guessing. And as rumours bounce around the capital city, Doha, Qatar's ruling elite has assumed a studied and predictable public silence. | But no-one knows when or how exactly this change will take place. Those who have offered likely dates and "inside tracks" are simply guessing. And as rumours bounce around the capital city, Doha, Qatar's ruling elite has assumed a studied and predictable public silence. |
| Challenges ahead | Challenges ahead |
| Whenever he does take over from his father, the 33-year-old Crown Prince will face a growing number of challenges. | Whenever he does take over from his father, the 33-year-old Crown Prince will face a growing number of challenges. |
| And though it would not be fair to describe Tamim as a novice in world affairs he has yet to face complex issues without the support of his father, and the efforts of Khalid al-Atiyya, Qatar's energetic minister of state for foreign affairs. And of course the dominating presence of the PM and foreign minister Hamad bin Jassim. It is widely believed that HBJ, as he is known, will step down before the Emir does. | And though it would not be fair to describe Tamim as a novice in world affairs he has yet to face complex issues without the support of his father, and the efforts of Khalid al-Atiyya, Qatar's energetic minister of state for foreign affairs. And of course the dominating presence of the PM and foreign minister Hamad bin Jassim. It is widely believed that HBJ, as he is known, will step down before the Emir does. |
| His departure will leave an unfillable gap. Hamad bin Jassim is one of the very best diplomats the region has to offer, hard working, shrewd and full of charisma. He possesses all the tools needed to cajole and persuade. | His departure will leave an unfillable gap. Hamad bin Jassim is one of the very best diplomats the region has to offer, hard working, shrewd and full of charisma. He possesses all the tools needed to cajole and persuade. |
| His are big shoes to fill, and the skill of diplomacy is something that is as much innate to a person's character as it is to experience. Tamim has certainly learned the ropes quickly and may well grow to be a great Emir, but with Hamad bin Jassim's departure Qatar's clout on the foreign stage will undoubtedly suffer and this at a time when the country is facing increasing criticism. | His are big shoes to fill, and the skill of diplomacy is something that is as much innate to a person's character as it is to experience. Tamim has certainly learned the ropes quickly and may well grow to be a great Emir, but with Hamad bin Jassim's departure Qatar's clout on the foreign stage will undoubtedly suffer and this at a time when the country is facing increasing criticism. |
| The region, once friendly and open to Qatar's influence now views the Emirate's intentions with suspicion, fear and even hatred. In the Gulf, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have grown distrustful of Qatar and its alliances and foreign policy initiatives. The UAE in particular has been angered by Qatar's growing relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood and has worked to try to blunt Qatari influence at every turn. | The region, once friendly and open to Qatar's influence now views the Emirate's intentions with suspicion, fear and even hatred. In the Gulf, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have grown distrustful of Qatar and its alliances and foreign policy initiatives. The UAE in particular has been angered by Qatar's growing relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood and has worked to try to blunt Qatari influence at every turn. |
| In Libya, Tunisia and Egypt the public mood has turned against Qatar, despite or perhaps because of the billions that Qatar has pumped into those North African countries. In responding to the Arab Spring, Qatar helped enable revolutions that saw three dictators fall but its continued support for Islamists has angered many. | In Libya, Tunisia and Egypt the public mood has turned against Qatar, despite or perhaps because of the billions that Qatar has pumped into those North African countries. In responding to the Arab Spring, Qatar helped enable revolutions that saw three dictators fall but its continued support for Islamists has angered many. |
| In Tahrir Square, Egyptians burned Qatari flags and a leading comedian Bassam Youssef has taken several pokes at the Qataris for their involvement in Egyptian political and financial affairs. | In Tahrir Square, Egyptians burned Qatari flags and a leading comedian Bassam Youssef has taken several pokes at the Qataris for their involvement in Egyptian political and financial affairs. |
| Al-Jazeera, Qatar's once shining jewel has also suffered, losing an estimated five million viewers. It is being criticised for appearing biased and lacking in editorial rigour, in effect becoming an extension of the Qatari government rather than an independent news organisation. | Al-Jazeera, Qatar's once shining jewel has also suffered, losing an estimated five million viewers. It is being criticised for appearing biased and lacking in editorial rigour, in effect becoming an extension of the Qatari government rather than an independent news organisation. |
| But it is in Syria that the Qataris face their greatest challenge. Where once they were confident that the regime of Bashar al-Assad would crumble in the face of international pressure and arms transfers to rebel forces, the war now looks to be moving in Mr Assad's favour. | But it is in Syria that the Qataris face their greatest challenge. Where once they were confident that the regime of Bashar al-Assad would crumble in the face of international pressure and arms transfers to rebel forces, the war now looks to be moving in Mr Assad's favour. |
| Should his forces prevail the consequences for Qatar, following two years of active support for the opposition and $3bn spent on weapons and humanitarian aid, are potentially devastating. Qatar's position and influence in the region would be irreparably damaged should the rebels it has backed so openly be defeated. | Should his forces prevail the consequences for Qatar, following two years of active support for the opposition and $3bn spent on weapons and humanitarian aid, are potentially devastating. Qatar's position and influence in the region would be irreparably damaged should the rebels it has backed so openly be defeated. |
| At the same time, Qatar's relationships with the West remain a mixture of engagement and confusion. Qatar needs Western military support, and intelligence co-operation, particularly with regard to the Syrian crisis. But distrust clouds Western interpretations of Qatar's intentions, and its relationships with hardline Islamists in Libya and Syria as well as the country's links with Hamas are troubling Washington and its allies. | At the same time, Qatar's relationships with the West remain a mixture of engagement and confusion. Qatar needs Western military support, and intelligence co-operation, particularly with regard to the Syrian crisis. But distrust clouds Western interpretations of Qatar's intentions, and its relationships with hardline Islamists in Libya and Syria as well as the country's links with Hamas are troubling Washington and its allies. |
| Few doubt the ruling family will remain close to Western powers, particularly as it seeks to maintain deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, but Qatar will never be the fully compliant ally the West may wish it to be. And the West will never be entirely at ease with Qatar's Islamist links. | Few doubt the ruling family will remain close to Western powers, particularly as it seeks to maintain deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, but Qatar will never be the fully compliant ally the West may wish it to be. And the West will never be entirely at ease with Qatar's Islamist links. |
| A smooth handover | A smooth handover |
| Though there is talk of Tamim's conservatism and his fondness for the Muslim Brotherhood, there is no actual evidence for either charge other than the rumour and gossip so often associated with Gulf politics. And regardless of the prince's personal beliefs, it's likely that very little would change as and when he does assume power. | Though there is talk of Tamim's conservatism and his fondness for the Muslim Brotherhood, there is no actual evidence for either charge other than the rumour and gossip so often associated with Gulf politics. And regardless of the prince's personal beliefs, it's likely that very little would change as and when he does assume power. |
| That's because Qatar's main initiatives and policy tracks are more or less set in stone. The 2030 Vision, which outlines the development goals for the country, is already chaired by Tamim (with significant input from his mother Sheikha Mozah and his father the Emir) and has a clear liberalising social agenda. | That's because Qatar's main initiatives and policy tracks are more or less set in stone. The 2030 Vision, which outlines the development goals for the country, is already chaired by Tamim (with significant input from his mother Sheikha Mozah and his father the Emir) and has a clear liberalising social agenda. |
| Likewise the football World Cup in 2022 will require social and legal reforms in the country, most notably around workers' rights and the construction of stadiums and new cities for its large expatriate population to live in. Qatar has invested billions of dollars already in realising these visions, and Tamim could not turn his back on these gargantuan projects even if he wanted to. | Likewise the football World Cup in 2022 will require social and legal reforms in the country, most notably around workers' rights and the construction of stadiums and new cities for its large expatriate population to live in. Qatar has invested billions of dollars already in realising these visions, and Tamim could not turn his back on these gargantuan projects even if he wanted to. |
| However, lost in a story which has consumed the elite in Doha is an issue that will not go away. It concerns the push for constitutional reform and the first ever elections to Qatar's advisory council. The council is an appointed body and its term ends on 30 June 2013. It has been widely assumed that there will be partial elections for the new council. | |
| But in the rush to focus on the changing of the guard many have neglected to note that this important deadline, a vital aspect of Qatar's future, is fast approaching. | |
| Much criticism has been directed at Qatar calling for change in regions of the Arab world but not practising what it preaches at home. Granted Qataris - there are just 250,000 - live privileged lifestyles and the call for democracy comes from a tiny number of activists, but regional states still chafe at this particular inconsistency. | Much criticism has been directed at Qatar calling for change in regions of the Arab world but not practising what it preaches at home. Granted Qataris - there are just 250,000 - live privileged lifestyles and the call for democracy comes from a tiny number of activists, but regional states still chafe at this particular inconsistency. |
| Time will tell if either the Emir or his son decide to push forward with pluralistic change, but it would greatly assist the young prince in maintaining Qatar's regional aspirations and it would enhance his reputation with Arab youth calling for reform if this process was started in earnest. | Time will tell if either the Emir or his son decide to push forward with pluralistic change, but it would greatly assist the young prince in maintaining Qatar's regional aspirations and it would enhance his reputation with Arab youth calling for reform if this process was started in earnest. |
| Regardless of when he takes charge, Tamim will be a man who stays close to his father's legacy. Inculcated from a young age with the values of hard work, and of keeping an open mind, he is unlikely to fall far from the tree. Nevertheless how Tamim deals with an unstable region and a country undergoing significant social change will be fascinating to watch, as will the extent of his commitment to democratic reform. | Regardless of when he takes charge, Tamim will be a man who stays close to his father's legacy. Inculcated from a young age with the values of hard work, and of keeping an open mind, he is unlikely to fall far from the tree. Nevertheless how Tamim deals with an unstable region and a country undergoing significant social change will be fascinating to watch, as will the extent of his commitment to democratic reform. |
| Michael Stephens is a research analyst for RUSI Qatar in Doha (@MStephensgulf) | Michael Stephens is a research analyst for RUSI Qatar in Doha (@MStephensgulf) |