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| Afghanistan peace talks: no surrender behind the Taliban's white flowers | Afghanistan peace talks: no surrender behind the Taliban's white flowers |
| (4 months later) | |
| The banalities of a news conference take on a strange significance when the men who summon the world's cameras are members of a feared insurgent group that banned television when they ruled Afghanistan and sheltered al-Qaida. | The banalities of a news conference take on a strange significance when the men who summon the world's cameras are members of a feared insurgent group that banned television when they ruled Afghanistan and sheltered al-Qaida. |
| Separated from journalists by white flower arrangements that would not have looked out of place at a wedding, two Taliban officials caught much of the world by surprise with their offer of peace talks on Tuesday. | Separated from journalists by white flower arrangements that would not have looked out of place at a wedding, two Taliban officials caught much of the world by surprise with their offer of peace talks on Tuesday. |
| News that a political delegation would work out of an office in Qatar, first proposed two years ago, brought a glimmer of hope that a decade of conflict might end at the negotiating table rather than after more bloodshed. It came on the day Nato troops formally handed control of the country's security over to Afghans, to focus on a training role ahead of the final departure of foreign forces in 2014. Hours after Afghan leaders promised their forces were ready to take on the Taliban, a statement from the group detailed its plans to set up office in the Gulf state. | News that a political delegation would work out of an office in Qatar, first proposed two years ago, brought a glimmer of hope that a decade of conflict might end at the negotiating table rather than after more bloodshed. It came on the day Nato troops formally handed control of the country's security over to Afghans, to focus on a training role ahead of the final departure of foreign forces in 2014. Hours after Afghan leaders promised their forces were ready to take on the Taliban, a statement from the group detailed its plans to set up office in the Gulf state. |
| Among the group's aims are: "To support a political and peaceful solution which includes the end of the occupation of Afghanistan." | Among the group's aims are: "To support a political and peaceful solution which includes the end of the occupation of Afghanistan." |
| The talks will initially be brokered by the US, which is keen to arrange a prisoner swap for their only captive soldier and set up a framework that will make it easier for their troops to leave Afghanistan without allowing al-Qaida to regain a foothold or seeing another civil war break out. But Washington, for all its financial influence and military muscle, cannot offer the Taliban peace any more than it could secure it for the current regime of president Hamid Karzai, and talks between Afghans are fraught with challenges that could wreck the whole enterprise. | The talks will initially be brokered by the US, which is keen to arrange a prisoner swap for their only captive soldier and set up a framework that will make it easier for their troops to leave Afghanistan without allowing al-Qaida to regain a foothold or seeing another civil war break out. But Washington, for all its financial influence and military muscle, cannot offer the Taliban peace any more than it could secure it for the current regime of president Hamid Karzai, and talks between Afghans are fraught with challenges that could wreck the whole enterprise. |
| Karzai has for years tried to reach out to the Taliban, whom he often describes as errant brothers. But he is suspicious of US motives, unhappy about holding talks overseas, and hasalready urged the insurgents to move any negotiations back into Afghanistan as soon as possible. | Karzai has for years tried to reach out to the Taliban, whom he often describes as errant brothers. But he is suspicious of US motives, unhappy about holding talks overseas, and hasalready urged the insurgents to move any negotiations back into Afghanistan as soon as possible. |
| The Taliban meanwhile have not returned Karzai's affection, denouncing him as a puppet, and for years swore they would only speak to the western nations that back his government. | The Taliban meanwhile have not returned Karzai's affection, denouncing him as a puppet, and for years swore they would only speak to the western nations that back his government. |
| The announcement of original plans for the Qatar office in 2011 sowed confusion and anger among the Taliban rank and file, and fear of the impact news of actual peace talks might have on morale has been one reason given for the group's reluctance. | The announcement of original plans for the Qatar office in 2011 sowed confusion and anger among the Taliban rank and file, and fear of the impact news of actual peace talks might have on morale has been one reason given for the group's reluctance. |
| They are launching the talks after a violent start to the summer, including the bloodiest bombing in Kabul for a year, perhaps hoping to talk from a position of strength or to ensure troops on the ground don't think their leaders' backs are against the wall. Still, just talking may undermine morale enough to dampen Taliban interest if progress is slow. | They are launching the talks after a violent start to the summer, including the bloodiest bombing in Kabul for a year, perhaps hoping to talk from a position of strength or to ensure troops on the ground don't think their leaders' backs are against the wall. Still, just talking may undermine morale enough to dampen Taliban interest if progress is slow. |
| "I'm sceptical about the convenient timing of this announcement, which creates the impression of viable peace talks at precisely the moment when the Afghan government is formally declaring itself in charge of security," said Graeme Smith, senior analyst at International Crisis Group. "Unfortunately we've yet to see much evidence of enthusiasm among the insurgents for any kind of ceasefire. The number of insurgent attacks has increased dramatically so far this year." | "I'm sceptical about the convenient timing of this announcement, which creates the impression of viable peace talks at precisely the moment when the Afghan government is formally declaring itself in charge of security," said Graeme Smith, senior analyst at International Crisis Group. "Unfortunately we've yet to see much evidence of enthusiasm among the insurgents for any kind of ceasefire. The number of insurgent attacks has increased dramatically so far this year." |
| Inside and outside Karzai's administration there are powerful commanders, many of whom fought the Soviets, each other or the Taliban in the civil war of the 1990s. They have guns, supporters and, after years of western largesse, plenty of money, and are once again flexing their muscles, so the Taliban cannot only talk with the government. | Inside and outside Karzai's administration there are powerful commanders, many of whom fought the Soviets, each other or the Taliban in the civil war of the 1990s. They have guns, supporters and, after years of western largesse, plenty of money, and are once again flexing their muscles, so the Taliban cannot only talk with the government. |
| Even if talks progress the Taliban is far from a united group; the top US commander in Afghanistan, General Joseph Dunford, admitted he was sceptical about whether it was possible to broker a peace deal with the Haqqanis, the most feared of the insurgent factions. | Even if talks progress the Taliban is far from a united group; the top US commander in Afghanistan, General Joseph Dunford, admitted he was sceptical about whether it was possible to broker a peace deal with the Haqqanis, the most feared of the insurgent factions. |
| Activists for women and religious minorities persecuted by the Taliban are likely to fight any deal hard. The Taliban shut down girls' schools, made the all-enveloping burqa mandatory and banned most women from work when they were in power, and constitutional protections for women's rights have been a bone of contention in discussions ahead of the talks. | Activists for women and religious minorities persecuted by the Taliban are likely to fight any deal hard. The Taliban shut down girls' schools, made the all-enveloping burqa mandatory and banned most women from work when they were in power, and constitutional protections for women's rights have been a bone of contention in discussions ahead of the talks. |
| "The Taliban is the sworn enemy of equality for women, and the Karzai government has been no real friend to women's rights, especially not lately. So when these two sides come together to talk, who will be there to speak up for the rights of the half of Afghans who are women?," said Heather Barr, Afghanistan analyst for Human Rights Watch. "Afghan women have every reason to view these negotiations with fear rather than optimism." | "The Taliban is the sworn enemy of equality for women, and the Karzai government has been no real friend to women's rights, especially not lately. So when these two sides come together to talk, who will be there to speak up for the rights of the half of Afghans who are women?," said Heather Barr, Afghanistan analyst for Human Rights Watch. "Afghan women have every reason to view these negotiations with fear rather than optimism." |
| Even if a deal is sealed, it is far from certain it will protect Afghanistan from more bloodshed, if the history of past agreements offers any lessons. Among the failures was a Saudi-brokered effort which ended when a prince brought commanders to Mecca to swear they would respect a pact, but their troops started shelling each other again before the men had left the holy city. | Even if a deal is sealed, it is far from certain it will protect Afghanistan from more bloodshed, if the history of past agreements offers any lessons. Among the failures was a Saudi-brokered effort which ended when a prince brought commanders to Mecca to swear they would respect a pact, but their troops started shelling each other again before the men had left the holy city. |
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