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| The Labor leadership saga: what happens next? | The Labor leadership saga: what happens next? |
| (3 months later) | |
| Q: What has caused the latest round of leadership speculation? | Q: What has caused the latest round of leadership speculation? |
| A: Kevin Rudd’s supporters have been trying to pressure the prime minister to stand down, or to convince a group of ministers to ask her to stand down, because polling shows that Labor is facing an electoral wipeout – on some current figures, the loss of up to 35 of its 72 seats – and because polls also show that a restoration of Rudd as prime minister could improve Labor’s position. | A: Kevin Rudd’s supporters have been trying to pressure the prime minister to stand down, or to convince a group of ministers to ask her to stand down, because polling shows that Labor is facing an electoral wipeout – on some current figures, the loss of up to 35 of its 72 seats – and because polls also show that a restoration of Rudd as prime minister could improve Labor’s position. |
| They believe Julia Gillard’s resignation is the most feasible way to bring about a change, because Rudd has said he will not mount a leadership challenge and because a handover, rather than a contest, would be less divisive. | They believe Julia Gillard’s resignation is the most feasible way to bring about a change, because Rudd has said he will not mount a leadership challenge and because a handover, rather than a contest, would be less divisive. |
| Gillard and most members of her cabinet insist she will not stand aside, and that if Rudd believes he has caucus support he should challenge. They have been calling on him to do this because they calculate he will not, as he has previously shied away from a contest and anyway they don’t believe he commands a clear majority of votes. This is the calculation behind recent statements by ministers including Gary Gray, Stephen Conroy and Greg Combet. | Gillard and most members of her cabinet insist she will not stand aside, and that if Rudd believes he has caucus support he should challenge. They have been calling on him to do this because they calculate he will not, as he has previously shied away from a contest and anyway they don’t believe he commands a clear majority of votes. This is the calculation behind recent statements by ministers including Gary Gray, Stephen Conroy and Greg Combet. |
| In short, the past two weeks have been the final stages of a very high stakes game of bluff, played out through the media. | In short, the past two weeks have been the final stages of a very high stakes game of bluff, played out through the media. |
| Q: How can a leadership ballot occur? | Q: How can a leadership ballot occur? |
| A: Under Labor rules, there are two possible ways. | A: Under Labor rules, there are two possible ways. |
| The prime minister can declare that there will be a ballot on any day when both houses of parliament are sitting. This is what Gillard did with her dramatic announcement during question time on 21 March that there would a ballot that afternoon at 4.30pm. Rudd did not stand. It is also what she did ahead of the leadership ballot on 27 February 2012. She beat Rudd by 71 votes to 31. | The prime minister can declare that there will be a ballot on any day when both houses of parliament are sitting. This is what Gillard did with her dramatic announcement during question time on 21 March that there would a ballot that afternoon at 4.30pm. Rudd did not stand. It is also what she did ahead of the leadership ballot on 27 February 2012. She beat Rudd by 71 votes to 31. |
| Alternatively more than one-third of caucus can sign a petition calling for a special meeting of caucus. In the current caucus of 102 that would require 34 signatures. The petition must be submitted to the caucus chair, currently Victorian senator Gavin Marshall. Caucus rules state that he must schedule a special caucus meeting for a ballot “as soon as practicable”. This phrase is not defined. A majority of caucus - 52 votes – would have to agree to a ballot. To win the ballot a candidate would also have to get 52 votes. | Alternatively more than one-third of caucus can sign a petition calling for a special meeting of caucus. In the current caucus of 102 that would require 34 signatures. The petition must be submitted to the caucus chair, currently Victorian senator Gavin Marshall. Caucus rules state that he must schedule a special caucus meeting for a ballot “as soon as practicable”. This phrase is not defined. A majority of caucus - 52 votes – would have to agree to a ballot. To win the ballot a candidate would also have to get 52 votes. |
| Q: When could a ballot occur? | Q: When could a ballot occur? |
| A: Practically, it would have to be this week. If the prime minister were to change her mind and call a spill, it would technically have to be by Thursday because only the Senate is scheduled to sit on Friday, although asking the members of the House of Representatives to stay in Canberra an extra day would not be out of the question. | A: Practically, it would have to be this week. If the prime minister were to change her mind and call a spill, it would technically have to be by Thursday because only the Senate is scheduled to sit on Friday, although asking the members of the House of Representatives to stay in Canberra an extra day would not be out of the question. |
| If a ballot were precipitated by a petition, it could also technically occur after parliament rises, but this would inevitably raise questions about the cost of MPs and senators returning to Canberra, and also about the constitutional validity of the change, given that Labor has governed only with the support of the crossbenches. Again this makes Friday the final practical date. It is quite possible no ballot will occur and Gillard will lead Labor to the election. | If a ballot were precipitated by a petition, it could also technically occur after parliament rises, but this would inevitably raise questions about the cost of MPs and senators returning to Canberra, and also about the constitutional validity of the change, given that Labor has governed only with the support of the crossbenches. Again this makes Friday the final practical date. It is quite possible no ballot will occur and Gillard will lead Labor to the election. |
| Q: Does Kevin Rudd have the numbers? | Q: Does Kevin Rudd have the numbers? |
| A: It is impossible to tell. He did not stand in February because he did not have a majority. He has won some additional support since then. Some caucus members remain undecided. Everyone is angry that the leadership continues to drown out everything else the government is trying to do or say. Both the Rudd camp and the Gillard camp blames the other for this. | A: It is impossible to tell. He did not stand in February because he did not have a majority. He has won some additional support since then. Some caucus members remain undecided. Everyone is angry that the leadership continues to drown out everything else the government is trying to do or say. Both the Rudd camp and the Gillard camp blames the other for this. |
| Q: Would Kevin Rudd have to prove he had the support of the hung parliament? | Q: Would Kevin Rudd have to prove he had the support of the hung parliament? |
| A: In order to swear Rudd in as prime minister, the governor general, Quentin Bryce, would have to be convinced that he had sufficient support on the crossbenches to guarantee confidence in his government. This could be provided through letters of support from relevant independents but might also need to be tested on the floor of the parliament, to put the situation beyond doubt. The independents would not need to do another formal deal with Rudd, since the parliament is almost at an end, but they would need to guarantee confidence and supply to put the validity of the government beyond doubt. If they did not, the governor general would be forced to consider whether Tony Abbott could form a government, or whether there had to be an immediate election. | A: In order to swear Rudd in as prime minister, the governor general, Quentin Bryce, would have to be convinced that he had sufficient support on the crossbenches to guarantee confidence in his government. This could be provided through letters of support from relevant independents but might also need to be tested on the floor of the parliament, to put the situation beyond doubt. The independents would not need to do another formal deal with Rudd, since the parliament is almost at an end, but they would need to guarantee confidence and supply to put the validity of the government beyond doubt. If they did not, the governor general would be forced to consider whether Tony Abbott could form a government, or whether there had to be an immediate election. |
| Q: What else would happen if Kevin Rudd won? | Q: What else would happen if Kevin Rudd won? |
| A: He would have to explain why Labor had changed leaders and what he would do differently, just as Julia Gillard did when she took over weeks before she called the 2010 poll. | A: He would have to explain why Labor had changed leaders and what he would do differently, just as Julia Gillard did when she took over weeks before she called the 2010 poll. |
| In particular Rudd would be under pressure to explain his approach to asylum seekers arriving by boat. As he was about to lose the prime ministership in 2010, he told caucus he would never “lurch to the right” on asylum policy. As the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat continued, Gillard has adopted some of the former Howard government’s policies, including offshore processing. The rate of arrivals increased, rather than slowed. | In particular Rudd would be under pressure to explain his approach to asylum seekers arriving by boat. As he was about to lose the prime ministership in 2010, he told caucus he would never “lurch to the right” on asylum policy. As the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat continued, Gillard has adopted some of the former Howard government’s policies, including offshore processing. The rate of arrivals increased, rather than slowed. |
| Rudd would also face immediate frontbench resignations. Peter Garrett and Stephen Conroy have said they would not serve under him, and others are expected to follow. Several Rudd backers resigned from Julia Gillard’s cabinet after the abandoned March leadership showdown, including Chris Bowen. Given the anger in the party Rudd could face leaks and destabilisation, as Gillard did during the 2010 campaign. | Rudd would also face immediate frontbench resignations. Peter Garrett and Stephen Conroy have said they would not serve under him, and others are expected to follow. Several Rudd backers resigned from Julia Gillard’s cabinet after the abandoned March leadership showdown, including Chris Bowen. Given the anger in the party Rudd could face leaks and destabilisation, as Gillard did during the 2010 campaign. |
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