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Labor leadership spill: Kevin Rudd's real battle is now ahead of him Labor leadership spill: Kevin Rudd's real battle is now ahead of him
(3 months later)
The real battle over Kevin Rudd’s claim to the Labor leadership has been between the Australian people and the Labor party. Labor kept telling the voters he was a dysfunctional egomaniac who they couldn’t possibly work with again, and the people kept telling the pollsters that they liked him better than Julia Gillard.The real battle over Kevin Rudd’s claim to the Labor leadership has been between the Australian people and the Labor party. Labor kept telling the voters he was a dysfunctional egomaniac who they couldn’t possibly work with again, and the people kept telling the pollsters that they liked him better than Julia Gillard.
In a democracy the voters inevitably win, although in this case the antipathy of many in Labor towards their former leader meant they left it until the final possible moment to change their minds.In a democracy the voters inevitably win, although in this case the antipathy of many in Labor towards their former leader meant they left it until the final possible moment to change their minds.
The future of the party now hinges on whether voters still like Rudd when he is leader again, or whether their professed preference for him was really a hankering for the way they felt when they elected him as "Kevin07", and politics still felt hopeful and positive – in contrast to the down and dirty shouting match it has been for the past three years.The future of the party now hinges on whether voters still like Rudd when he is leader again, or whether their professed preference for him was really a hankering for the way they felt when they elected him as "Kevin07", and politics still felt hopeful and positive – in contrast to the down and dirty shouting match it has been for the past three years.
Rudd, who resigned tearfully when he was deposed before the 2010 election, will see the result as sweet vindication. But his real vindication will only come if he can lead Labor to a narrow loss, or even defy all predictions and emerge victorious.Rudd, who resigned tearfully when he was deposed before the 2010 election, will see the result as sweet vindication. But his real vindication will only come if he can lead Labor to a narrow loss, or even defy all predictions and emerge victorious.
Gillard will now leave politics at the next election, gifting Rudd a better chance of unity than she ever had. She negotiated a more hazardous set of circumstances and endured more personal vitriol than any recent leader, with a resilience that amazed even her enemies.Gillard will now leave politics at the next election, gifting Rudd a better chance of unity than she ever had. She negotiated a more hazardous set of circumstances and endured more personal vitriol than any recent leader, with a resilience that amazed even her enemies.
The outcome of Labor’s latest leadership reversal really rests on Rudd’s explanation as to why Labor has changed leaders yet again and what he will do differently this time - what he says to match Julia Gillard’s contention in 2010 that she had wrested the leadership from him because Labor had been “a good government that lost its way.”The outcome of Labor’s latest leadership reversal really rests on Rudd’s explanation as to why Labor has changed leaders yet again and what he will do differently this time - what he says to match Julia Gillard’s contention in 2010 that she had wrested the leadership from him because Labor had been “a good government that lost its way.”
Labor turned to Rudd again because polls showed he could raise its primary vote from 29% to 40%, and take the two party preferred vote from 43% to something closer than 50:50. In other words, instead of losing 35 seats and possibly also control of the Senate, Labor could lose narrowly, or even have an outside chance of winning.Labor turned to Rudd again because polls showed he could raise its primary vote from 29% to 40%, and take the two party preferred vote from 43% to something closer than 50:50. In other words, instead of losing 35 seats and possibly also control of the Senate, Labor could lose narrowly, or even have an outside chance of winning.
The Labor Party has gambled everything on Rudd being able to maintain that advantage as voters look at him again, as a real leader, rather than the fond memory of one, as he leads them into this election campaign.The Labor Party has gambled everything on Rudd being able to maintain that advantage as voters look at him again, as a real leader, rather than the fond memory of one, as he leads them into this election campaign.
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