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| George Osborne: master of the game of divisive politics | |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| He's the part-time chancellor, say Labour, but even his most vicious critics would not deny that George Osborne is a full-time politician. He proved that again on Wednesday, when he presented a spending review shot through with politics, from first croaky breath to last. | He's the part-time chancellor, say Labour, but even his most vicious critics would not deny that George Osborne is a full-time politician. He proved that again on Wednesday, when he presented a spending review shot through with politics, from first croaky breath to last. |
| His primary task was the one he toiled hardest to conceal. His mission, in American parlance, was to put lipstick on a pig, to prettify what remains a dire situation in the public finances. Recall that 2013 was meant to be the year Osborne would announce the beginning of the end of austerity, as he made cheerful progress towards eradicating the deficit in time for the 2015 election. Indeed that plan was the premise on which the coalition was built. | His primary task was the one he toiled hardest to conceal. His mission, in American parlance, was to put lipstick on a pig, to prettify what remains a dire situation in the public finances. Recall that 2013 was meant to be the year Osborne would announce the beginning of the end of austerity, as he made cheerful progress towards eradicating the deficit in time for the 2015 election. Indeed that plan was the premise on which the coalition was built. |
| Yet economic growth has been so anaemic, tax revenues still so low, that there is no such end in sight. | Yet economic growth has been so anaemic, tax revenues still so low, that there is no such end in sight. |
| Instead, the chancellor came to the Commons to announce cuts that will stretch to the far horizon, long after 2015. | Instead, the chancellor came to the Commons to announce cuts that will stretch to the far horizon, long after 2015. |
| He did his best to divert attention from this unfortunate truth. He made great play of those departments to be spared the knife. And when, reluctantly, he had to name areas where "savings" – never "cuts" – will be necessary, he was at pains to accompany every dollop of bitter medicine with a spoonful of sugar. So the Department of Culture, Media and Sport will have its budget slashed by 7%, with capital spending cut by two-thirds, but Osborne preferred to stress a new scheme to restore the site of the Battle of Waterloo (location, incidentally, of the death in the novel Vanity Fair of a character by the name of … George Osborne). | He did his best to divert attention from this unfortunate truth. He made great play of those departments to be spared the knife. And when, reluctantly, he had to name areas where "savings" – never "cuts" – will be necessary, he was at pains to accompany every dollop of bitter medicine with a spoonful of sugar. So the Department of Culture, Media and Sport will have its budget slashed by 7%, with capital spending cut by two-thirds, but Osborne preferred to stress a new scheme to restore the site of the Battle of Waterloo (location, incidentally, of the death in the novel Vanity Fair of a character by the name of … George Osborne). |
| He made the same move repeatedly, cutting the budget of the Department of Energy and Climate Change by 8%, but hoping to obscure that with a promise on nuclear power. Defra got whacked by 10%, but worry not, there's to be more money for flood defences. The intention was to wrongfoot and present a Scrooge budget in the language of Santa. | He made the same move repeatedly, cutting the budget of the Department of Energy and Climate Change by 8%, but hoping to obscure that with a promise on nuclear power. Defra got whacked by 10%, but worry not, there's to be more money for flood defences. The intention was to wrongfoot and present a Scrooge budget in the language of Santa. |
| The trick worked easiest when the chancellor could speak of health, schools and international aid, those areas whose budgets are circled with a ring of steel first constructed when the Tories were in opposition. Those choices were, and remain, intensely political – a last vestige of the modernisation project of compassionate conservatism, when David Cameron and Osborne sought to reassure the electorate they were the nasty party no longer. | The trick worked easiest when the chancellor could speak of health, schools and international aid, those areas whose budgets are circled with a ring of steel first constructed when the Tories were in opposition. Those choices were, and remain, intensely political – a last vestige of the modernisation project of compassionate conservatism, when David Cameron and Osborne sought to reassure the electorate they were the nasty party no longer. |
| That imperative survives, although it did not deny the chancellor all wiggle room. Two choices were notable. First, Osborne showed he is not above stealing from Labour when he pickpocketed Andy Burnham's long-held idea of dipping into NHS funds to pay for social care. This is one of the perils of opposition. Propose a bad idea, and it'll be mocked; propose a good one, and it'll be nicked. | That imperative survives, although it did not deny the chancellor all wiggle room. Two choices were notable. First, Osborne showed he is not above stealing from Labour when he pickpocketed Andy Burnham's long-held idea of dipping into NHS funds to pay for social care. This is one of the perils of opposition. Propose a bad idea, and it'll be mocked; propose a good one, and it'll be nicked. |
| Second, the education budget is protected but priorities within the ringfence are telling. There are to be 180 free schools, but the Lib Dems' cherished pupil premium is to have funding frozen in real terms: Osborne has favoured Michael Gove at the expense of Nick Clegg. | Second, the education budget is protected but priorities within the ringfence are telling. There are to be 180 free schools, but the Lib Dems' cherished pupil premium is to have funding frozen in real terms: Osborne has favoured Michael Gove at the expense of Nick Clegg. |
| None of this should obscure the partisan goal of the review: to draw bright, clear battlelines for 2015 – and to put Labour on the wrong side of them. Osborne announced he would exempt the state pension from his cap on welfare spending, implicitly asking: would Labour? The tactic became most obvious in the speech's final stretch, as Osborne put away the nice guy mask and revealed his inner snarl. | None of this should obscure the partisan goal of the review: to draw bright, clear battlelines for 2015 – and to put Labour on the wrong side of them. Osborne announced he would exempt the state pension from his cap on welfare spending, implicitly asking: would Labour? The tactic became most obvious in the speech's final stretch, as Osborne put away the nice guy mask and revealed his inner snarl. |
| He proposed changes to social security motivated less by the need to save money than by the urge to show how tough this government could be. From now on, jobseekers will have to sign on every week. Those who can't speak English will have to learn or lose their benefits. Most striking of all, the newly laid off will not be able to claim benefit straight away but have to wait seven days. That may not sound like much, but for those who have just lost a job that paid little, it could be impossible. | He proposed changes to social security motivated less by the need to save money than by the urge to show how tough this government could be. From now on, jobseekers will have to sign on every week. Those who can't speak English will have to learn or lose their benefits. Most striking of all, the newly laid off will not be able to claim benefit straight away but have to wait seven days. That may not sound like much, but for those who have just lost a job that paid little, it could be impossible. |
| No wonder the BBC's Robert Peston called it a Wonga budget: there will be plenty who will survive that first week by taking out a loan at usurious rates. | No wonder the BBC's Robert Peston called it a Wonga budget: there will be plenty who will survive that first week by taking out a loan at usurious rates. |
| Such punitive action will have next to no impact on the deficit. It's all about the politics. Osborne has drawn a line and invited Labour to stand on the other side of it. He wants the Eds – Miliband and Balls – to balk at his proposals so that he can paint Labour as soft on scroungers. Perhaps he will keep coming up with ever more aggressive wheezes until the Eds eventually crack and refuse to follow where he leads. The aim is clear: Osborne hopes to brand the opposition in 2015 the way he branded them on Wednesday – as "the welfare party". | Such punitive action will have next to no impact on the deficit. It's all about the politics. Osborne has drawn a line and invited Labour to stand on the other side of it. He wants the Eds – Miliband and Balls – to balk at his proposals so that he can paint Labour as soft on scroungers. Perhaps he will keep coming up with ever more aggressive wheezes until the Eds eventually crack and refuse to follow where he leads. The aim is clear: Osborne hopes to brand the opposition in 2015 the way he branded them on Wednesday – as "the welfare party". |
| In this, Osborne demonstrated his understanding of a cardinal rule of politics: you define yourself by your choice of both friends and enemies. | In this, Osborne demonstrated his understanding of a cardinal rule of politics: you define yourself by your choice of both friends and enemies. |
| He aimed to pose as the friend of doctors, nurses, schoolchildren, the foreign poor, soldiers and spies, all of whom will either see their funding protected or increased. And he was happy to be the enemy of public sector workers, whose "automatic progression" pay is to be scrapped, local government, Scotland and, above all, the unemployed. | He aimed to pose as the friend of doctors, nurses, schoolchildren, the foreign poor, soldiers and spies, all of whom will either see their funding protected or increased. And he was happy to be the enemy of public sector workers, whose "automatic progression" pay is to be scrapped, local government, Scotland and, above all, the unemployed. |
| This is divisive politics, no doubt about it. But it's a game few play better than George Osborne. | This is divisive politics, no doubt about it. But it's a game few play better than George Osborne. |