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Will the love for Kevin Rudd last beyond the honeymoon? Will the love for Kevin Rudd last beyond the honeymoon?
(3 months later)
Close, but not quite enough ...Close, but not quite enough ...
The first wave of polling after Kevin Rudd’s return to the prime ministership shows Labor doing considerably better. But if this is as far as the honeymoon goes, then it probably won’t be enough for Labor to get over the line in the election later this year.The first wave of polling after Kevin Rudd’s return to the prime ministership shows Labor doing considerably better. But if this is as far as the honeymoon goes, then it probably won’t be enough for Labor to get over the line in the election later this year.
Let’s briefly review the polling, summarised in the table.Let’s briefly review the polling, summarised in the table.
Click here to expand the table.Click here to expand the table.
All the major, national polls with “before and after” data show a rise in Labor’s first preferences and two-party preferred vote share. Essential estimates the two party preferred bump at just 3 points, while Morgan finds a 7 point rise in Labor’s TPP share, with Newspoll and Galaxy at 6 points and 3 points respectively. The first preference estimates are of similar magnitudes: 6 point gains for Labor at both Newspoll and Galaxy, 9 points for Morgan. We’re yet to see a post-Gillard Nielsen poll (commissioned by Fairfax media).All the major, national polls with “before and after” data show a rise in Labor’s first preferences and two-party preferred vote share. Essential estimates the two party preferred bump at just 3 points, while Morgan finds a 7 point rise in Labor’s TPP share, with Newspoll and Galaxy at 6 points and 3 points respectively. The first preference estimates are of similar magnitudes: 6 point gains for Labor at both Newspoll and Galaxy, 9 points for Morgan. We’re yet to see a post-Gillard Nielsen poll (commissioned by Fairfax media).
My poll averaging model estimates the improvement in Labor first preference vote share to be 7.2 percentage points (a 95% credible interval or the “margin of error” is +/- 2.1 points), with Labor currently on 38.1% of first preferences (+/- 1.7 points). This is essentially the same level of first preference support Labor won at the 2010 election, delivering a 50-50 TPP result, a hung parliament and minority government.My poll averaging model estimates the improvement in Labor first preference vote share to be 7.2 percentage points (a 95% credible interval or the “margin of error” is +/- 2.1 points), with Labor currently on 38.1% of first preferences (+/- 1.7 points). This is essentially the same level of first preference support Labor won at the 2010 election, delivering a 50-50 TPP result, a hung parliament and minority government.
Alone among the pollsters reported here, Morgan’s poll from last weekend finds Labor ahead on a TPP basis. A result of 51.5% TPP would see Labor almost surely win the election. But the consensus two-party preferred estimate is closer to 49%, which does point to a much closer election than the one we were anticipating last week. Labor is unlikely to win government — at least not in its own right — if this is as far as the Rudd honeymoon goes.Alone among the pollsters reported here, Morgan’s poll from last weekend finds Labor ahead on a TPP basis. A result of 51.5% TPP would see Labor almost surely win the election. But the consensus two-party preferred estimate is closer to 49%, which does point to a much closer election than the one we were anticipating last week. Labor is unlikely to win government — at least not in its own right — if this is as far as the Rudd honeymoon goes.
It is entirely possible to win a majority of seats with less than 50% of the TPP vote. For instance, the Coalition won the 1998 election with 49% TPP and lost the 1990 election with 50.1% TPP. But it would take a special kind of marginal seat magic for Labor to translate 49% TPP into a majority of House of Representatives seats.It is entirely possible to win a majority of seats with less than 50% of the TPP vote. For instance, the Coalition won the 1998 election with 49% TPP and lost the 1990 election with 50.1% TPP. But it would take a special kind of marginal seat magic for Labor to translate 49% TPP into a majority of House of Representatives seats.
So, is there any indication that Labor will improve further in the polls? Some guidance comes from the past. I’ve used my model to estimate the boosts in Labor first preference vote shares associated with previous leadership changes. In 2010, when Gillard replaced Rudd (June 24), Labor’s first preference vote rose 4.6 percentage points (+/- 2.3 points), from 37.5% to 42.1%; see the graph.So, is there any indication that Labor will improve further in the polls? Some guidance comes from the past. I’ve used my model to estimate the boosts in Labor first preference vote shares associated with previous leadership changes. In 2010, when Gillard replaced Rudd (June 24), Labor’s first preference vote rose 4.6 percentage points (+/- 2.3 points), from 37.5% to 42.1%; see the graph.
Click here to the expand graph.Click here to the expand graph.
Gillard’s honeymoon was short-lived. Labor’s first preference vote share fell two points over the two weeks following Gillard’s replacement of Rudd. Labor’s vote share stabilised, but then fell after the formal announcement of the 2010 election, to the 38% level recorded at the 2010 election (August 21), indistinguishable from the level Labor was polling at the time Gillard replaced Rudd. Of course, it is widely understood that leaks from inside Labor — from Rudd loyalists — helped damage Labor’s stock over this period; presumably this is less likely to be a factor in 2013.Gillard’s honeymoon was short-lived. Labor’s first preference vote share fell two points over the two weeks following Gillard’s replacement of Rudd. Labor’s vote share stabilised, but then fell after the formal announcement of the 2010 election, to the 38% level recorded at the 2010 election (August 21), indistinguishable from the level Labor was polling at the time Gillard replaced Rudd. Of course, it is widely understood that leaks from inside Labor — from Rudd loyalists — helped damage Labor’s stock over this period; presumably this is less likely to be a factor in 2013.
Rudd’s ascension to the Labor leadership in December 2006 is another relevant point of comparison. The immediate boost to Labor’s first preferences was slightly more than 6 percentage points (from 38% to just over 44%), followed by another gain of 3 to 4 percentage points after the summer break in early 2007. Labor went on to win the November 2007 election with 44% of first preferences, retaining the vast bulk of the late 2006, early 2007 Rudd honeymoon.Rudd’s ascension to the Labor leadership in December 2006 is another relevant point of comparison. The immediate boost to Labor’s first preferences was slightly more than 6 percentage points (from 38% to just over 44%), followed by another gain of 3 to 4 percentage points after the summer break in early 2007. Labor went on to win the November 2007 election with 44% of first preferences, retaining the vast bulk of the late 2006, early 2007 Rudd honeymoon.
Labor’s hoping for some more gains from the 2013 Rudd honeymoon, or even a second surge in the polls of the sort they got in early 2007. To be sure, the last week of polling is extremely encouraging for Labor. But the polls and the betting markets still fancy the Coalition; collectively, the bookies’ prices reflect a 75% chance that the Coalition will win the election.Labor’s hoping for some more gains from the 2013 Rudd honeymoon, or even a second surge in the polls of the sort they got in early 2007. To be sure, the last week of polling is extremely encouraging for Labor. But the polls and the betting markets still fancy the Coalition; collectively, the bookies’ prices reflect a 75% chance that the Coalition will win the election.
Rudd and Labor need to “move the needle” a little more to make this an election truly close, let alone to give Labor a chance at winning government in their own right. It's little wonder then that Labor strategist Bruce Hawker is calling for Tony Abbott to commit to debating Rudd, little wonder that changes are underway or pending, little wonder the date of the election timing is still unknown. The immediate “sugar hit” of Rudd’s return as prime minister isn’t going to be enough.Rudd and Labor need to “move the needle” a little more to make this an election truly close, let alone to give Labor a chance at winning government in their own right. It's little wonder then that Labor strategist Bruce Hawker is calling for Tony Abbott to commit to debating Rudd, little wonder that changes are underway or pending, little wonder the date of the election timing is still unknown. The immediate “sugar hit” of Rudd’s return as prime minister isn’t going to be enough.
And in this way we might just wind up with a substantive contest. It could well turn out to be in everyone’s interests for the 2013 election to be about more than personalities and popularity.And in this way we might just wind up with a substantive contest. It could well turn out to be in everyone’s interests for the 2013 election to be about more than personalities and popularity.
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