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| Egypt's revolutionaries should heed lessons from Algeria's bloody civil war | Egypt's revolutionaries should heed lessons from Algeria's bloody civil war |
| (3 months later) | |
| Egypt's prospects after the ousting of Mohamed Morsi are unclear, but one fear stands out: that the overthrow of a democratically elected president will lead to a repeat of what happened in Algeria in the 1990s. Its bloody civil war erupted when the army cancelled the second round of an election that an Islamist movement was poised to win. | Egypt's prospects after the ousting of Mohamed Morsi are unclear, but one fear stands out: that the overthrow of a democratically elected president will lead to a repeat of what happened in Algeria in the 1990s. Its bloody civil war erupted when the army cancelled the second round of an election that an Islamist movement was poised to win. |
| The comparison suggests Egypt may become engulfed in violence due to the Muslim Brotherhood's anger at being denied its legitimate right to rule after a free election last year. The arrests of 300 senior figures will compound the bitterness. | The comparison suggests Egypt may become engulfed in violence due to the Muslim Brotherhood's anger at being denied its legitimate right to rule after a free election last year. The arrests of 300 senior figures will compound the bitterness. |
| But there are significant differences. The Algerian Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) never had the chance to govern as Egypt's Islamists did. Nor had Algeria undergone a recent revolution, while Morsi and his supporters stood accused of betraying Egypt's aspirations after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. | But there are significant differences. The Algerian Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) never had the chance to govern as Egypt's Islamists did. Nor had Algeria undergone a recent revolution, while Morsi and his supporters stood accused of betraying Egypt's aspirations after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. |
| Egypt has already experienced vicious violence in the form of a militant Islamist insurgency in the mid-1990s. It was roundly defeated, its members either being killed, surrendering or turning to al-Qaida (whose current leader is the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri). | Egypt has already experienced vicious violence in the form of a militant Islamist insurgency in the mid-1990s. It was roundly defeated, its members either being killed, surrendering or turning to al-Qaida (whose current leader is the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri). |
| It is also clear that the army's move in Egypt enjoyed enormous popular support – not the case in Algeria in 1991. | It is also clear that the army's move in Egypt enjoyed enormous popular support – not the case in Algeria in 1991. |
| Still, challenging the validity of the analogy does not imply there are no dangers ahead. "This does not mean that there won't be Egyptian Islamists who would like to revenge a wounded psyche," said the Cairo University historian Khaled Fahmy. "The sense of victimhood runs very deep in the psychology of the Brotherhood and the latest events will only exacerbate it. | Still, challenging the validity of the analogy does not imply there are no dangers ahead. "This does not mean that there won't be Egyptian Islamists who would like to revenge a wounded psyche," said the Cairo University historian Khaled Fahmy. "The sense of victimhood runs very deep in the psychology of the Brotherhood and the latest events will only exacerbate it. |
| "And with the political situation very volatile, with the economy in shambles, and so many weapons lying around, it is not difficult to imagine violence breaking out." | "And with the political situation very volatile, with the economy in shambles, and so many weapons lying around, it is not difficult to imagine violence breaking out." |
| For some though, the Algerian analogy is self-serving. "To compare Algeria in 1991 and Egypt now without acknowledging the profound differences is intellectually dishonest or just ignorant," tweeted another regional expert, Weddady. "The only purpose … is to present the Muslim Brotherhood as victims. Well they aren't, they dug their own grave." | For some though, the Algerian analogy is self-serving. "To compare Algeria in 1991 and Egypt now without acknowledging the profound differences is intellectually dishonest or just ignorant," tweeted another regional expert, Weddady. "The only purpose … is to present the Muslim Brotherhood as victims. Well they aren't, they dug their own grave." |
| Yet even if the two situations are different there may well be useful lessons to be learned. According to al-Arabiya TV, a group of Algerian MPs made this point in an open letter to the Egyptian people. "The shedding of blood of Egyptians under any pretext should be condemned out loud by everyone," they advised. "Give priority to reason, logic, and adopt dialogue. There is no other way." | Yet even if the two situations are different there may well be useful lessons to be learned. According to al-Arabiya TV, a group of Algerian MPs made this point in an open letter to the Egyptian people. "The shedding of blood of Egyptians under any pretext should be condemned out loud by everyone," they advised. "Give priority to reason, logic, and adopt dialogue. There is no other way." |
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