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Trident alternatives review to be published despite MoD opposition Trident alternatives review to be published despite MoD opposition
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In the face of fierce opposition from the Ministry of Defence, next week the government will publish a long-promised document on alternatives to the Trident nuclear missile system in a move that will set the terms for an intense debate about Britain's military and diplomatic status.In the face of fierce opposition from the Ministry of Defence, next week the government will publish a long-promised document on alternatives to the Trident nuclear missile system in a move that will set the terms for an intense debate about Britain's military and diplomatic status.
MoD resistance to the release of any material that might be used against its ambition to upgrade the existing Trident system at a cost of tens of billions of pounds provoked a bitter dispute in Whitehall, the Guardian has learned. One well placed source described the row as "pretty bloody".MoD resistance to the release of any material that might be used against its ambition to upgrade the existing Trident system at a cost of tens of billions of pounds provoked a bitter dispute in Whitehall, the Guardian has learned. One well placed source described the row as "pretty bloody".
So serious was the dispute that David Cameron told the cabinet secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood, to bang heads together to reach an agreement on what information should be released and what should remain classified.So serious was the dispute that David Cameron told the cabinet secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood, to bang heads together to reach an agreement on what information should be released and what should remain classified.
The result will be revealed in the Trident alternatives review, a key plank in the 2010 coalition agreement, due to be released on Tuesday, two days before the Commons rises before its long summer recess.The result will be revealed in the Trident alternatives review, a key plank in the 2010 coalition agreement, due to be released on Tuesday, two days before the Commons rises before its long summer recess.
The review was triggered by the belief within the Liberal Democrat leadership that a like-for-like replacement of Trident based on continuous deployment of up to 40 nuclear warheads ready to fire, underpinned by a requirement to flatten Moscow, was no longer needed. A smaller, cheaper system that reflected contemporary strategic threats and economic realities was more appropriate, it argued.The review was triggered by the belief within the Liberal Democrat leadership that a like-for-like replacement of Trident based on continuous deployment of up to 40 nuclear warheads ready to fire, underpinned by a requirement to flatten Moscow, was no longer needed. A smaller, cheaper system that reflected contemporary strategic threats and economic realities was more appropriate, it argued.
Lib Dem leaders are understood to have abandoned initial proposals to place nuclear warheads on cruise missiles in submarines, on planes or on missiles based in silos on land. These options are widely regarded as too expensive, unreliable and ineffective.Lib Dem leaders are understood to have abandoned initial proposals to place nuclear warheads on cruise missiles in submarines, on planes or on missiles based in silos on land. These options are widely regarded as too expensive, unreliable and ineffective.
Instead, the document to be published next week will focus on how to slim down a system based on some new Trident submarines whose design has already been paid for, equipped with missiles supplied at cut-price by the US.Instead, the document to be published next week will focus on how to slim down a system based on some new Trident submarines whose design has already been paid for, equipped with missiles supplied at cut-price by the US.
This could be achieved by reducing the number of submarines and missiles but, crucially, by abandoning Britain's posture of continuous at sea deterrent, known as CASD. There is an increasingly widespread view in parliament, and among independent defence experts, that CASD is no longer viable and may never have been so, even during the cold war.This could be achieved by reducing the number of submarines and missiles but, crucially, by abandoning Britain's posture of continuous at sea deterrent, known as CASD. There is an increasingly widespread view in parliament, and among independent defence experts, that CASD is no longer viable and may never have been so, even during the cold war.
This year Sir Nick Harvey, a Lib Dem MP and former defence minister, described plans to spend billions of pounds on a like-for-like replacement of Trident as based on "outdated and ludicrous" ideas about deterrence.This year Sir Nick Harvey, a Lib Dem MP and former defence minister, described plans to spend billions of pounds on a like-for-like replacement of Trident as based on "outdated and ludicrous" ideas about deterrence.
Harvey, whose job overseeing the Trident review was taken over by Danny Alexander, the Treasury chief secretary, last year, strongly questions the need for CASD. "A great national debate, with the focus on likely alternative postures, not alternative systems, is needed," he told the Guardian on Thursday.Harvey, whose job overseeing the Trident review was taken over by Danny Alexander, the Treasury chief secretary, last year, strongly questions the need for CASD. "A great national debate, with the focus on likely alternative postures, not alternative systems, is needed," he told the Guardian on Thursday.
Lord Des Browne, Labour's defence secretary when the Blair government decided to replace the existing Trident system – and had to depend on Conservative support in the subsequent Commons vote – in 2007, has made it clear he believes a CASD posture is no longer needed.Lord Des Browne, Labour's defence secretary when the Blair government decided to replace the existing Trident system – and had to depend on Conservative support in the subsequent Commons vote – in 2007, has made it clear he believes a CASD posture is no longer needed.
"Important things have changed and it is time for a more honest debate about the defence choices facing the country," he wrote in the Daily Telegraph in February. "Nuclear deterrence is decreasingly effective [and] increasingly risky," he said."Important things have changed and it is time for a more honest debate about the defence choices facing the country," he wrote in the Daily Telegraph in February. "Nuclear deterrence is decreasingly effective [and] increasingly risky," he said.
Alternatives to replacing Trident with a like-for-like system include cutting the number of submarines from four to two, having a "reduced readiness" posture, maintaining a "virtual" nuclear capacity – that is, maintain the know-how but not a permanently available weapons system – or running down Trident towards complete nuclear disarmament.Alternatives to replacing Trident with a like-for-like system include cutting the number of submarines from four to two, having a "reduced readiness" posture, maintaining a "virtual" nuclear capacity – that is, maintain the know-how but not a permanently available weapons system – or running down Trident towards complete nuclear disarmament.
Opponents of CASD say other nuclear powers, including Russia and China, do not always maintain a nuclear weapons submarine at sea. Supporters, notably the defence secretary, Philip Hammond, and senior navy chiefs, do not dispute that four new submarines in like-for-like Trident replacement would cost at least £20bn, would account for around 35% of the total defence equipment budget by 2021/22, and could cost £80bn-£100bn over their lifespan.Opponents of CASD say other nuclear powers, including Russia and China, do not always maintain a nuclear weapons submarine at sea. Supporters, notably the defence secretary, Philip Hammond, and senior navy chiefs, do not dispute that four new submarines in like-for-like Trident replacement would cost at least £20bn, would account for around 35% of the total defence equipment budget by 2021/22, and could cost £80bn-£100bn over their lifespan.
However, they say this would amount to a relatively small proportion of the overall defence budget over this period. Some senior military officers, particularly in the army, privately question the relevance of nuclear weapons and say the money should be spent on conventional equipment and weapons.However, they say this would amount to a relatively small proportion of the overall defence budget over this period. Some senior military officers, particularly in the army, privately question the relevance of nuclear weapons and say the money should be spent on conventional equipment and weapons.
The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, is said to be in no hurry to make a decision on Trident but is more sympathetic to an alternative nuclear weapons posture than his frontbench defence team, which is regarded as hawkish on the issue.The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, is said to be in no hurry to make a decision on Trident but is more sympathetic to an alternative nuclear weapons posture than his frontbench defence team, which is regarded as hawkish on the issue.
Some MPs say there is a real prospect of a common Lab-Lib position, or at least "common language", by the time of the 2015 general election. The first political test will be the Lib Dem conference in Glasgow in September where the party grassroots are expected to call for a far more radical attack on the Trident project than the leadership is prepared for.Some MPs say there is a real prospect of a common Lab-Lib position, or at least "common language", by the time of the 2015 general election. The first political test will be the Lib Dem conference in Glasgow in September where the party grassroots are expected to call for a far more radical attack on the Trident project than the leadership is prepared for.
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