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Liz Cheney: a high-profile name – but she isn't going to win in Wyoming Liz Cheney: a high-profile name – but she isn't going to win in Wyoming
(2 months later)
Sometimes people do things in electoral politics that make no sense. Liz Cheney running for the United States Senate in Wyoming looks to be a prime example. I said so on Wednesday, and nothing has changed.Sometimes people do things in electoral politics that make no sense. Liz Cheney running for the United States Senate in Wyoming looks to be a prime example. I said so on Wednesday, and nothing has changed.
Today, a new poll shows Cheney trailing longtime and popular incumbent Mike Enzi in a Republican primary 55% to 21%.Today, a new poll shows Cheney trailing longtime and popular incumbent Mike Enzi in a Republican primary 55% to 21%.
The top line, however, is probably too kind to Cheney. In order to successfully challenge someone in a primary, you need to be more popular than the incumbent. Enzi is actually the more popular one. He sports a 76% favorable rating against just 6% who see him in an unfavorable light. Despite being less well known, Cheney has a higher unfavorable rating at 15%. Her favorable rating, meanwhile, is 31pt lower at 45%. That will go up as the campaign goes on, but so will her unfavorable rating.The top line, however, is probably too kind to Cheney. In order to successfully challenge someone in a primary, you need to be more popular than the incumbent. Enzi is actually the more popular one. He sports a 76% favorable rating against just 6% who see him in an unfavorable light. Despite being less well known, Cheney has a higher unfavorable rating at 15%. Her favorable rating, meanwhile, is 31pt lower at 45%. That will go up as the campaign goes on, but so will her unfavorable rating.
You might be wondering whether or not Cheney's connection to her father Dick will help her during the campaign. The former vice-president does have a 58pt net favorable rating, yet that's significantly less than Enzi's 70pt net favorable rating. The younger Cheney is going to have to come up with a better strategy than just connecting herself to her father if she wants to win.You might be wondering whether or not Cheney's connection to her father Dick will help her during the campaign. The former vice-president does have a 58pt net favorable rating, yet that's significantly less than Enzi's 70pt net favorable rating. The younger Cheney is going to have to come up with a better strategy than just connecting herself to her father if she wants to win.
The problem for Cheney is there really doesn't seem to be any area to exploit. As I noted on Wednesday, Enzi simply isn't vulnerable on his right flank like other Republicans to go down in a primary over the past few years. Senators like Bob Bennett and Dick Lugar were among the top ten most liberal Republicans in the Senate. Enzi was the 11th most conservative member of the Senate last Congress. Wyoming's other Senator John Barrasso was right next to Enzi at 12th most.The problem for Cheney is there really doesn't seem to be any area to exploit. As I noted on Wednesday, Enzi simply isn't vulnerable on his right flank like other Republicans to go down in a primary over the past few years. Senators like Bob Bennett and Dick Lugar were among the top ten most liberal Republicans in the Senate. Enzi was the 11th most conservative member of the Senate last Congress. Wyoming's other Senator John Barrasso was right next to Enzi at 12th most.
Indeed, there are very little policy differences between Enzi and her. She can try to play up her opposition to the internet sales tax, though that's an issue that split Republicans down the middle. Moreover, how many people actually will vote on that issue? Most would agree that those voters would be few and far between.Indeed, there are very little policy differences between Enzi and her. She can try to play up her opposition to the internet sales tax, though that's an issue that split Republicans down the middle. Moreover, how many people actually will vote on that issue? Most would agree that those voters would be few and far between.
Cheney, meanwhile, is likely vulnerable on her favoring of gay marriage. The Republican controlled state legislature not only didn't get marriage passed this past year, but it couldn't even get through a watered down domestic partnership law. A poll taken in next door more liberal Montana showed that 84% of Republicans were against gay marriage (pdf).Cheney, meanwhile, is likely vulnerable on her favoring of gay marriage. The Republican controlled state legislature not only didn't get marriage passed this past year, but it couldn't even get through a watered down domestic partnership law. A poll taken in next door more liberal Montana showed that 84% of Republicans were against gay marriage (pdf).
One would think that percentage may actually be higher in Wyoming.One would think that percentage may actually be higher in Wyoming.
Finally, Cheney won't even be able to play up the "Enzi's been in Washington too long" angle. Cheney just recently moved back to Wyoming, after living just outside of the District of Columbia for many years. Grover Norquist wondered why Cheney didn't run for senate in Virginia. Enzi has been living in the state for over 40 years.Finally, Cheney won't even be able to play up the "Enzi's been in Washington too long" angle. Cheney just recently moved back to Wyoming, after living just outside of the District of Columbia for many years. Grover Norquist wondered why Cheney didn't run for senate in Virginia. Enzi has been living in the state for over 40 years.
The truth is that Cheney's bid makes no sense from an electoral perspective. She must be doing it because she's bored or just felt like it. That will likely not be enough to make her the next senator from Wyoming.The truth is that Cheney's bid makes no sense from an electoral perspective. She must be doing it because she's bored or just felt like it. That will likely not be enough to make her the next senator from Wyoming.
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