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Labor within striking distance of Coalition with Rudd at the helm Labor within striking distance of Coalition with Rudd at the helm
(2 months later)
Labor's decision to switch back to Kevin Rudd as leader is continuing to be validated by opinion poll surveys which put the ALP just behind the Coalition, but within striking distance for any federal campaign held soon.Labor's decision to switch back to Kevin Rudd as leader is continuing to be validated by opinion poll surveys which put the ALP just behind the Coalition, but within striking distance for any federal campaign held soon.
The Newspoll survey published by the Australian on Tuesday has Labor's primary vote on 37%, a one point drop since the last survey but still substantially higher than where Labor was polling during Julia Gillard's final months as leader.The Newspoll survey published by the Australian on Tuesday has Labor's primary vote on 37%, a one point drop since the last survey but still substantially higher than where Labor was polling during Julia Gillard's final months as leader.
Newspoll's two party preferred measure is 52% to the Coalition and 48% Labor - down two points from the last survey taken two weeks ago. That Newspoll taken last fortnight had Labor at 50-50 with the Coalition on a two party preferred basis.Newspoll's two party preferred measure is 52% to the Coalition and 48% Labor - down two points from the last survey taken two weeks ago. That Newspoll taken last fortnight had Labor at 50-50 with the Coalition on a two party preferred basis.
Newspoll's margin of error is 3%.Newspoll's margin of error is 3%.
Kevin Rudd's satisfaction rating in Tuesday's survey was 42% - down a point in the fortnight; and he remains ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although Abbott's position in that ranking improved three points to 34% and Rudd's dropped 3 points to 50%. The Coalition's primary vote in this fortnight's survey also rebounded three points to 45%.Kevin Rudd's satisfaction rating in Tuesday's survey was 42% - down a point in the fortnight; and he remains ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although Abbott's position in that ranking improved three points to 34% and Rudd's dropped 3 points to 50%. The Coalition's primary vote in this fortnight's survey also rebounded three points to 45%.
The Newspoll was taken straight after the government's announcement last Friday of a punitive new policy on the management of unauthorised boat arrivals that will see people seeking asylum in Australia dispatched to Papua New Guinea.The Newspoll was taken straight after the government's announcement last Friday of a punitive new policy on the management of unauthorised boat arrivals that will see people seeking asylum in Australia dispatched to Papua New Guinea.
The newspaper survey records a bounce in public perceptions about Labor's credentials concerning the management of asylum seekers in the wake of the announcement. Compared to a survey taken in February 2013, Newspoll recorded a six point bounce in community support for Labor's management of asylum seekers, and a 14 point drop for the Coalition.The newspaper survey records a bounce in public perceptions about Labor's credentials concerning the management of asylum seekers in the wake of the announcement. Compared to a survey taken in February 2013, Newspoll recorded a six point bounce in community support for Labor's management of asylum seekers, and a 14 point drop for the Coalition.
Labor's new policy on boat arrivals is targeted at Labor voters who have switched their support to Tony Abbott in part because of the Coalition's strong public perceptions on the management of border security.Labor's new policy on boat arrivals is targeted at Labor voters who have switched their support to Tony Abbott in part because of the Coalition's strong public perceptions on the management of border security.
There is speculation among MPs that Rudd could call the election as soon as this coming weekend, for 31 August.There is speculation among MPs that Rudd could call the election as soon as this coming weekend, for 31 August.
The new poll comes as the government has been condemned by refugee advocates for releasing photographs of Iranian asylum seekers on Christmas Island who have arrived under the draconian new processing and resettlement policy.The new poll comes as the government has been condemned by refugee advocates for releasing photographs of Iranian asylum seekers on Christmas Island who have arrived under the draconian new processing and resettlement policy.
The 81 passengers on Christmas Island will be bound for PNG under the new regime once they have completed health and medical checks. The release of the pictures is contrary to normal immigration department practices, which impose tight conditions on the reporting of occupants of detention centres.The 81 passengers on Christmas Island will be bound for PNG under the new regime once they have completed health and medical checks. The release of the pictures is contrary to normal immigration department practices, which impose tight conditions on the reporting of occupants of detention centres.
There have been several boat arrivals since the change of policy - and the government concedes it will take a period of time before facilities in PNG are at the required standard to transfer people for processing.There have been several boat arrivals since the change of policy - and the government concedes it will take a period of time before facilities in PNG are at the required standard to transfer people for processing.
As part of his pre-election deck clearing, Rudd also succeeded on Monday in an historic change to the rules of the Labor caucus which will entrench the power of the federal leader of the Labor Party while opening future ballots to grass roots participation.As part of his pre-election deck clearing, Rudd also succeeded on Monday in an historic change to the rules of the Labor caucus which will entrench the power of the federal leader of the Labor Party while opening future ballots to grass roots participation.
Rudd faced substantial push back from two former Cabinet ministers - Stephen Conroy and Greg Combet, and from the defence minister Stephen Smith about his plans to impose a caucus super majority of 75% before leadership spills. In a slight concession to the concerns from MPs, Rudd agreed the threshold for triggering a leadership spill would be 60% when the party was in opposition.Rudd faced substantial push back from two former Cabinet ministers - Stephen Conroy and Greg Combet, and from the defence minister Stephen Smith about his plans to impose a caucus super majority of 75% before leadership spills. In a slight concession to the concerns from MPs, Rudd agreed the threshold for triggering a leadership spill would be 60% when the party was in opposition.
Senior figures are concerned that the changes will disempower the caucus. Unions are also pushing for a say in future leadership ballots now the process has been changed to give ALP rank and file members a say in the selection of the party leader.Senior figures are concerned that the changes will disempower the caucus. Unions are also pushing for a say in future leadership ballots now the process has been changed to give ALP rank and file members a say in the selection of the party leader.
Rudd also faced questions from several MPs and senators, including the House of Representatives Speaker, Anna Burke, senators Doug Cameron and Lisa Singh, and MPs Stephen Jones and Laura Smyth, about the radical new policy on boat arrivals.Rudd also faced questions from several MPs and senators, including the House of Representatives Speaker, Anna Burke, senators Doug Cameron and Lisa Singh, and MPs Stephen Jones and Laura Smyth, about the radical new policy on boat arrivals.
The contributions during Monday's special caucus at the Balmain Town Hall were more questions than outright objections, and the policy to send all unauthorised boat arrivals to Papua New Guinea for processing and resettlement was endorsed.The contributions during Monday's special caucus at the Balmain Town Hall were more questions than outright objections, and the policy to send all unauthorised boat arrivals to Papua New Guinea for processing and resettlement was endorsed.
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