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'Cuch' wins barbecue test in Virginia, but 'T-Mac' leads gubernatorial race 'Cuch' wins barbecue test in Virginia, but 'T-Mac' leads gubernatorial race
(2 months later)
Before Eliot Spitzer and Anthony Weiner in New York City, the clown show of 2013 was supposed to be the swing-state Virginia gubernatorial election. Republican Ken Cuccinelli (Cuch) holds deeply conservative views, including his belief that "homosexual acts" are wrong, while Democrat Terry McAuliffe (T-Mac) is seen as unlikable – as demonstrated by the fact that he left his wife alone as she was delivering one of their children.Before Eliot Spitzer and Anthony Weiner in New York City, the clown show of 2013 was supposed to be the swing-state Virginia gubernatorial election. Republican Ken Cuccinelli (Cuch) holds deeply conservative views, including his belief that "homosexual acts" are wrong, while Democrat Terry McAuliffe (T-Mac) is seen as unlikable – as demonstrated by the fact that he left his wife alone as she was delivering one of their children.
The question that has marked this campaign is whether it would be Cuch's extreme policy positions, which, many would argue, the GOP suffers from nationally, or T-Mac's personality deficiencies that would ultimately be too much for Virginia voters to bear. In my view, issues will trump personality, and that favors the Democrat.The question that has marked this campaign is whether it would be Cuch's extreme policy positions, which, many would argue, the GOP suffers from nationally, or T-Mac's personality deficiencies that would ultimately be too much for Virginia voters to bear. In my view, issues will trump personality, and that favors the Democrat.
Horserace polling at this early point hasn't historically given us a good idea of who is going to win. Most voters simply aren't paying attention. They have no clue, for example, who Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate EW Jackson is, despite much insider discussion of his very conservative social positions.Horserace polling at this early point hasn't historically given us a good idea of who is going to win. Most voters simply aren't paying attention. They have no clue, for example, who Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate EW Jackson is, despite much insider discussion of his very conservative social positions.
Yet, Quinnipiac has a very interesting way we can compare the issue v personality problems both gubernatorial candidates have, and see which is more predictive of how the voters feel about the two. On the issues, they asked whether each candidate is too conservative, liberal or about right. Obviously, the percentage of "don't know" is high given most voters haven't tuned into the race. For those who have, however, it's clear that Cuch is going backward.Yet, Quinnipiac has a very interesting way we can compare the issue v personality problems both gubernatorial candidates have, and see which is more predictive of how the voters feel about the two. On the issues, they asked whether each candidate is too conservative, liberal or about right. Obviously, the percentage of "don't know" is high given most voters haven't tuned into the race. For those who have, however, it's clear that Cuch is going backward.
The percentage of those who think Cuccinelli is too conservative rose by 5pt over the past two months, to its all-time high of 33%. Almost all of that increase is from voters who had previously not registered an opinion. Among independent voters, whom Cuch must win, the percentage of those who thought he was "too conservative" is up from 29% to 38%. The percentage of independents who think he is "too conservative" is now 4pt higher than those who think he is "about right".The percentage of those who think Cuccinelli is too conservative rose by 5pt over the past two months, to its all-time high of 33%. Almost all of that increase is from voters who had previously not registered an opinion. Among independent voters, whom Cuch must win, the percentage of those who thought he was "too conservative" is up from 29% to 38%. The percentage of independents who think he is "too conservative" is now 4pt higher than those who think he is "about right".
T-Mac has no such problems. The percentage of those who think he is "too liberal" is up 4pt, but that's mirrored by a 3pt rise in the percentage of those who think he is just right. Voters are 10pt more likely to think he is "about right" than "too far to the left", versus only a 4pt gap for Cuch between about right and too conservative. Independents are 8pt more likely to say T-Mac is "about right" than "too liberal" – again, much better than how Cuch registers for "too conservative".T-Mac has no such problems. The percentage of those who think he is "too liberal" is up 4pt, but that's mirrored by a 3pt rise in the percentage of those who think he is just right. Voters are 10pt more likely to think he is "about right" than "too far to the left", versus only a 4pt gap for Cuch between about right and too conservative. Independents are 8pt more likely to say T-Mac is "about right" than "too liberal" – again, much better than how Cuch registers for "too conservative".
But what about T-Mac's personality issues? We can test that using the barbecue test. Voters were asked who would they rather have a conversation with at a cookout. The BBQ question is an offshoot of the "who would you rather have a beer with?" It's trying to measure "comfortability" or the "regular guy" index of the candidates. You'd expect Cuch to do better here, and he does.But what about T-Mac's personality issues? We can test that using the barbecue test. Voters were asked who would they rather have a conversation with at a cookout. The BBQ question is an offshoot of the "who would you rather have a beer with?" It's trying to measure "comfortability" or the "regular guy" index of the candidates. You'd expect Cuch to do better here, and he does.
Cuch still holds that "personal" edge over T-Mac. Despite thinking Cuch is more conservative than T-Mac is liberal, voters give Cuch this test by 38% to 34%. He is ahead among independents 37% to 34%, even as independents are increasingly thinking that he is too extreme on the issues.Cuch still holds that "personal" edge over T-Mac. Despite thinking Cuch is more conservative than T-Mac is liberal, voters give Cuch this test by 38% to 34%. He is ahead among independents 37% to 34%, even as independents are increasingly thinking that he is too extreme on the issues.
It's fairly clear, however, that it's issues not the regular guy index that's what is shaping perceptions of the candidates. How do I know? Look at the favorability of the candidates. Favorability is very important because no other measure predicts general election match-ups as well as it does in swing states.It's fairly clear, however, that it's issues not the regular guy index that's what is shaping perceptions of the candidates. How do I know? Look at the favorability of the candidates. Favorability is very important because no other measure predicts general election match-ups as well as it does in swing states.
Cuch's unfavorability is up 6pt in the past two months, from 24% to 30% – only slightly better than his favorability of 31%. That's nearly identical to the 5pt rise in those who think that Cuch is too conservative. Among independents, Cuch's unfavorability is up 5pt to 30% and now is greater than his favorability at 29%. That 1pt difference among independents is similar to the 4pt difference between "too conservative" and "about right".Cuch's unfavorability is up 6pt in the past two months, from 24% to 30% – only slightly better than his favorability of 31%. That's nearly identical to the 5pt rise in those who think that Cuch is too conservative. Among independents, Cuch's unfavorability is up 5pt to 30% and now is greater than his favorability at 29%. That 1pt difference among independents is similar to the 4pt difference between "too conservative" and "about right".
T-Mac's favorability is up to 30%, from just 22% two months ago. His unfavorable rating is only up 2pt, to 19%. The 11pt difference between the favorability and unfavorability matches the 10pt gap between "just right" and "too liberal" on the issues question. T-Mac stands at 28% favorable to 21% unfavorable with independents. This 7pt gap is nearly the same as the 8pt gap between "about right" and "too liberal" on the issues question.T-Mac's favorability is up to 30%, from just 22% two months ago. His unfavorable rating is only up 2pt, to 19%. The 11pt difference between the favorability and unfavorability matches the 10pt gap between "just right" and "too liberal" on the issues question. T-Mac stands at 28% favorable to 21% unfavorable with independents. This 7pt gap is nearly the same as the 8pt gap between "about right" and "too liberal" on the issues question.
Therefore, the best measure for predicting the winner in Virginia is looks like being the issues test, and not the "BBQ test", in Virginia. Voters may not think Terry McAuliffe is a regular guy, but that doesn't seem to matter. The campaign is developing on the grounds McAuliffe would prefer, and not the one Ken Cuccinelli would favor.Therefore, the best measure for predicting the winner in Virginia is looks like being the issues test, and not the "BBQ test", in Virginia. Voters may not think Terry McAuliffe is a regular guy, but that doesn't seem to matter. The campaign is developing on the grounds McAuliffe would prefer, and not the one Ken Cuccinelli would favor.
Voters overall, and independents specifically, think McAuliffe is right on the issues; increasingly, they believe that Cuccinelli is not. That makes McAuliffe favorite.Voters overall, and independents specifically, think McAuliffe is right on the issues; increasingly, they believe that Cuccinelli is not. That makes McAuliffe favorite.
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