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| Parsing Qaeda Chief’s Words for Truth on Grip on Power | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| WASHINGTON — The world has heard a good deal in recent days from a stern, 62-year-old Egyptian doctor thought to be hiding somewhere in Pakistan. | WASHINGTON — The world has heard a good deal in recent days from a stern, 62-year-old Egyptian doctor thought to be hiding somewhere in Pakistan. |
| Ayman al-Zawahri, a physician turned terrorist leader who ascended to the top of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden’s killing in 2011, used a video speech posted in jihadi forums on July 30 to rail against America’s treatment of detainees at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and pledged that his group would spare no effort to free them from captivity. | |
| Days later, he criticized the overthrow of the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, as part of a “Crusader” plot to divide his native Egypt, while at the same time chastising Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood for trying to govern Egypt democratically, rather than ruling by Shariah. | Days later, he criticized the overthrow of the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, as part of a “Crusader” plot to divide his native Egypt, while at the same time chastising Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood for trying to govern Egypt democratically, rather than ruling by Shariah. |
| But it is another communication of Mr. Zawahri’s — a secret correspondence between him and the leader of the Qaeda affiliate in Yemen — that has caused deep concern inside the American government about a possible terrorist plot by the group. Those fears prompted a mass closing of diplomatic outposts, and led analysts both inside and outside of government to reassess whether Mr. Zawahri might actually have a firmer grip on the network he helped found than they had thought. | |
| American government officials said that Mr. Zawahri used the communication to urge the Yemeni leader, Nasir ul-Wuhayshi, to carry out a large terrorist attack, and that separately he had elevated Mr. Wuhayshi to a more important role inside Al Qaeda. | American government officials said that Mr. Zawahri used the communication to urge the Yemeni leader, Nasir ul-Wuhayshi, to carry out a large terrorist attack, and that separately he had elevated Mr. Wuhayshi to a more important role inside Al Qaeda. |
| Some analysts have characterized these moves as the last, desperate acts of a leader who no longer wields the influence he once did. To others, Mr. Zawahri is wisely making plans for the future of a group he hopes can thrive long after his death, whether that is by natural causes or otherwise. | Some analysts have characterized these moves as the last, desperate acts of a leader who no longer wields the influence he once did. To others, Mr. Zawahri is wisely making plans for the future of a group he hopes can thrive long after his death, whether that is by natural causes or otherwise. |
| One view is that Mr. Zawahri, a man with neither the charisma, managerial abilities or global clout of Bin Laden, was smart to cede greater authority to Mr. Wuhayshi, who commands Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the one offshoot of Al Qaeda that has shown an ability to threaten American interests with large-scale attacks. | One view is that Mr. Zawahri, a man with neither the charisma, managerial abilities or global clout of Bin Laden, was smart to cede greater authority to Mr. Wuhayshi, who commands Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the one offshoot of Al Qaeda that has shown an ability to threaten American interests with large-scale attacks. |
| “The old model of corporate governance wasn’t working anymore,” said Daniel Benjamin, who was the State Department’s director of counterterrorism operations during President Obama’s first term. “It doesn’t make sense to have all of Al Qaeda’s leadership clustered in Pakistan when the only operatives who have any hope of doing something noteworthy are elsewhere.” | “The old model of corporate governance wasn’t working anymore,” said Daniel Benjamin, who was the State Department’s director of counterterrorism operations during President Obama’s first term. “It doesn’t make sense to have all of Al Qaeda’s leadership clustered in Pakistan when the only operatives who have any hope of doing something noteworthy are elsewhere.” |
| As American intelligence services pondered Mr. Zawahri’s role, the United States and Britain on Tuesday increased security precautions in Yemen, with Washington urging all American citizens to leave the country, while ordering all “nonemergency” and some “emergency” government personnel to do the same. Separately, Britain’s Foreign Office announced it had pulled its diplomatic staff out of the capital, Sana, “due to increased security concerns.” | As American intelligence services pondered Mr. Zawahri’s role, the United States and Britain on Tuesday increased security precautions in Yemen, with Washington urging all American citizens to leave the country, while ordering all “nonemergency” and some “emergency” government personnel to do the same. Separately, Britain’s Foreign Office announced it had pulled its diplomatic staff out of the capital, Sana, “due to increased security concerns.” |
| The British and American warnings came several hours after Yemeni military officials said that at least four men suspected of being members of Al Qaeda were killed in what was described as an American drone strike in the eastern Marib region of Yemen early Tuesday. It was the fourth American strike ordered in the last two weeks, part of an intensified campaign to disrupt the suspected plots that led to the embassy closings. | |
| The Central Intelligence Agency has also kept up its drone campaign in the tribal areas of Pakistan, where American spy agencies assume Mr. Zawahri is hiding. And yet there appears to be little solid intelligence about his actual whereabouts, and Pakistani officials vigorously deny he is anywhere in the country. | The Central Intelligence Agency has also kept up its drone campaign in the tribal areas of Pakistan, where American spy agencies assume Mr. Zawahri is hiding. And yet there appears to be little solid intelligence about his actual whereabouts, and Pakistani officials vigorously deny he is anywhere in the country. |
| The last time the C.I.A. thought it was close to capturing or killing him was late 2009, when a Jordanian doctor claimed to have infiltrated the highest levels of Al Qaeda and said he could inform the Americans about Mr. Zawahri’s precise hiding spot. | The last time the C.I.A. thought it was close to capturing or killing him was late 2009, when a Jordanian doctor claimed to have infiltrated the highest levels of Al Qaeda and said he could inform the Americans about Mr. Zawahri’s precise hiding spot. |
| But the doctor, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Bulawi, was a double agent. On Dec. 30, 2009, he blew himself up after being let onto a C.I.A. base in Khost, Afghanistan, an attack that killed seven C.I.A. employees. | But the doctor, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Bulawi, was a double agent. On Dec. 30, 2009, he blew himself up after being let onto a C.I.A. base in Khost, Afghanistan, an attack that killed seven C.I.A. employees. |
| Since he took over Al Qaeda in 2011, Mr. Zawahri has had difficulty in managing the disparate groups within Al Qaeda’s constellation, terrorism experts say. | Since he took over Al Qaeda in 2011, Mr. Zawahri has had difficulty in managing the disparate groups within Al Qaeda’s constellation, terrorism experts say. |
| His latest failure, some of them said, was not heading off a rift between Syrian jihadists and fellow fighters from Qaeda’s branch in Iraq, leading to an internecine battle between what are probably the most effective combatants against the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. | His latest failure, some of them said, was not heading off a rift between Syrian jihadists and fellow fighters from Qaeda’s branch in Iraq, leading to an internecine battle between what are probably the most effective combatants against the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. |
| The troubles began in April when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq, announced his organization was merging with the Nusra Front, one of the Syrian opposition’s extremist groups. This apparently unilateral move opened up a bitter fight with the Nusra Front’s leadership, which resisted what it said was a power grab. | The troubles began in April when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq, announced his organization was merging with the Nusra Front, one of the Syrian opposition’s extremist groups. This apparently unilateral move opened up a bitter fight with the Nusra Front’s leadership, which resisted what it said was a power grab. |
| In letters published by Al Jazeera, Mr. Zawahri told both Mr. Baghdadi and the head of Nusra, Abu Muhammed al Julani, to drop the merger idea. But the Iraqi defied Mr. Zawahri and said that his united group would operate under the name “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.” | In letters published by Al Jazeera, Mr. Zawahri told both Mr. Baghdadi and the head of Nusra, Abu Muhammed al Julani, to drop the merger idea. But the Iraqi defied Mr. Zawahri and said that his united group would operate under the name “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.” |
| “Zawahri is still a prominent figure, but he’s had a very mixed job performance,” said Evan F. Kohlmann, a senior partner with the New York security consulting firm Flashpoint Global Partners. | “Zawahri is still a prominent figure, but he’s had a very mixed job performance,” said Evan F. Kohlmann, a senior partner with the New York security consulting firm Flashpoint Global Partners. |
| Mr. Zawahri was not able to broker peace between the groups in Iraq and Syria, Mr. Kohlmann said, and “as a result they’re now fighting with each other.” | Mr. Zawahri was not able to broker peace between the groups in Iraq and Syria, Mr. Kohlmann said, and “as a result they’re now fighting with each other.” |
| But even as his organization splinters into sometimes-unwieldy regional franchises, and global events unfold not as he would like, Mr. Zawahri still bears authority in a movement to which he has been committed for more than three decades. | But even as his organization splinters into sometimes-unwieldy regional franchises, and global events unfold not as he would like, Mr. Zawahri still bears authority in a movement to which he has been committed for more than three decades. |
| “He’s not a very popular guy, and he’s got the personality of an early Leninist — always droning on and lapsing into polemics,” Mr. Benjamin said. | “He’s not a very popular guy, and he’s got the personality of an early Leninist — always droning on and lapsing into polemics,” Mr. Benjamin said. |
| “But, he remains Osama bin Laden’s designated successor, and that means something.” | “But, he remains Osama bin Laden’s designated successor, and that means something.” |
Nasser Arrabyee contributed reporting from Sana, Yemen. | Nasser Arrabyee contributed reporting from Sana, Yemen. |