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Buoyant Tony Abbott attempts the flip Buoyant Tony Abbott attempts the flip
(25 days later)
“The flip” is the strategy of an extremely confident leader who believes he has virtually sealed the deal in an election campaign.“The flip” is the strategy of an extremely confident leader who believes he has virtually sealed the deal in an election campaign.
It is a tactic of turning the tables on an opponent, of taking what has always been considered a weakness and turning it into a strength. Abbott’s campaign launch speech shows he is in the process of executing it just in time for 7 September.It is a tactic of turning the tables on an opponent, of taking what has always been considered a weakness and turning it into a strength. Abbott’s campaign launch speech shows he is in the process of executing it just in time for 7 September.
For three years he conducted a relentless, deliberate and effective negative campaign against the Gillard government, a campaign at times so aggressive that many on his own side were deeply concerned it was causing irreparable damage to voter perceptions of Abbott himself.For three years he conducted a relentless, deliberate and effective negative campaign against the Gillard government, a campaign at times so aggressive that many on his own side were deeply concerned it was causing irreparable damage to voter perceptions of Abbott himself.
But with negative views of Labor’s record apparently entrenched – aided, it must be said, by Labor’s own self-destructive leadership saga – Abbott is flipping to positive just in time.But with negative views of Labor’s record apparently entrenched – aided, it must be said, by Labor’s own self-destructive leadership saga – Abbott is flipping to positive just in time.
Slowly but surely his personal approval ratings are improving. He has toned down the attacks. His colleagues and his daughters talk about his “authenticity” as a community member and a family man. They label Rudd a “fake”.Slowly but surely his personal approval ratings are improving. He has toned down the attacks. His colleagues and his daughters talk about his “authenticity” as a community member and a family man. They label Rudd a “fake”.
And all the while Abbott refuses to deviate from his strategy of claiming to have a “real plan” without setting out what it is and how it will be paid for in anything like the detail provided by previous oppositions.And all the while Abbott refuses to deviate from his strategy of claiming to have a “real plan” without setting out what it is and how it will be paid for in anything like the detail provided by previous oppositions.
As Labor struggles to force him to reveal his policies, and more importantly, his policy costings, he flips the accusation levelled for so long against him and points out that it is the ALP that is running a negative campaign.As Labor struggles to force him to reveal his policies, and more importantly, his policy costings, he flips the accusation levelled for so long against him and points out that it is the ALP that is running a negative campaign.
Nowhere is the flip so evident as in the discussion of the budget and when it might be returned to surplus.Nowhere is the flip so evident as in the discussion of the budget and when it might be returned to surplus.
For three years the Coalition has lambasted Labor over its budget deficits, dismissing the impact of the global financial crisis and depicting the deterioration of the budget bottom line as entirely the result of Labor’s big spending mismanagement.For three years the Coalition has lambasted Labor over its budget deficits, dismissing the impact of the global financial crisis and depicting the deterioration of the budget bottom line as entirely the result of Labor’s big spending mismanagement.
But, as revealed earlier in the campaign, the Coalition now says its lack of faith in the forecasts for the budget’s bottom line numbers mean it cannot promise when it will return to surplus itself. It will – eventually – reveal savings that exceed spending and claim this means “the bottom line will always be better under the Coalition”, but it will not make a pledge about when it will put the budget back into the black.But, as revealed earlier in the campaign, the Coalition now says its lack of faith in the forecasts for the budget’s bottom line numbers mean it cannot promise when it will return to surplus itself. It will – eventually – reveal savings that exceed spending and claim this means “the bottom line will always be better under the Coalition”, but it will not make a pledge about when it will put the budget back into the black.
Abbott’s promise in his launch speech was only that by the end of a first term “the budget will be on track to a believable surplus”.Abbott’s promise in his launch speech was only that by the end of a first term “the budget will be on track to a believable surplus”.
The last time we saw “the flip” exercised with such confidence and dexterity was in Rudd’s campaign launch speech in 2007, when he managed to flip the economic management debate to one where John Howard, who had just presided over 11 years of consecutive growth and record low unemployment, was on the defensive over the economy.The last time we saw “the flip” exercised with such confidence and dexterity was in Rudd’s campaign launch speech in 2007, when he managed to flip the economic management debate to one where John Howard, who had just presided over 11 years of consecutive growth and record low unemployment, was on the defensive over the economy.
Rudd had made $45bn in spending promises during the formal campaign, just $5bn less than Howard's $50bn in campaign promises, but when Rudd told the party faithful “this reckless spending must stop” he looked like the competent and frugal economic manager.Rudd had made $45bn in spending promises during the formal campaign, just $5bn less than Howard's $50bn in campaign promises, but when Rudd told the party faithful “this reckless spending must stop” he looked like the competent and frugal economic manager.
The fact that Abbott believes he can credibly turn the tables and attack Labor for being negative – after everything we’ve seen for the past three years – shows just how certain he is that he’s headed for victory on 7 September.The fact that Abbott believes he can credibly turn the tables and attack Labor for being negative – after everything we’ve seen for the past three years – shows just how certain he is that he’s headed for victory on 7 September.
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