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| Syria crisis: experts split over western intervention | Syria crisis: experts split over western intervention |
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| The poison gas attack in Damascus in the small hours of last Wednesday killed hundreds, injured thousands and crossed a red line in international affairs. Amid growing signs that America, backed by Britain and other allies, will soon launch military strikes against Syria, expert opinion is dramatically divided on how to respond to the use of a weapon of mass destruction. | The poison gas attack in Damascus in the small hours of last Wednesday killed hundreds, injured thousands and crossed a red line in international affairs. Amid growing signs that America, backed by Britain and other allies, will soon launch military strikes against Syria, expert opinion is dramatically divided on how to respond to the use of a weapon of mass destruction. |
| For most considering the merits of intervention in the violent chaos of the Syrian civil war it is not a question of the best course of action, but the least bad. | For most considering the merits of intervention in the violent chaos of the Syrian civil war it is not a question of the best course of action, but the least bad. |
| General Sir David Richards, who stood down as chief of the defence staff only earlier this summer, is among several British military figures understood to be balking at the thought of direct attacks. | General Sir David Richards, who stood down as chief of the defence staff only earlier this summer, is among several British military figures understood to be balking at the thought of direct attacks. |
| Lord West, the former first sea lord, urged diplomacy before military aggression and was among those worried that the west could find itself sucked into a vortex of violence in the region. He said the first move should be determining who launched the chemical weapons and, if it was Assad, there should be a UN resolution condemning the head of state for using them against his own people. | Lord West, the former first sea lord, urged diplomacy before military aggression and was among those worried that the west could find itself sucked into a vortex of violence in the region. He said the first move should be determining who launched the chemical weapons and, if it was Assad, there should be a UN resolution condemning the head of state for using them against his own people. |
| "I'm very wary of military action, even if it is a limited missile strike," he told the Daily Mail. "What do we hope to achieve? Where will it lead? What if Assad says: 'Get lost,' and uses chemical weapons again? Are we going to escalate military action? I have a horrible feeling that one strike would quickly become more. The region is a powder keg. We simply can't predict which way military action will go and whether it would draw us, unwillingly, further into a conflict." | "I'm very wary of military action, even if it is a limited missile strike," he told the Daily Mail. "What do we hope to achieve? Where will it lead? What if Assad says: 'Get lost,' and uses chemical weapons again? Are we going to escalate military action? I have a horrible feeling that one strike would quickly become more. The region is a powder keg. We simply can't predict which way military action will go and whether it would draw us, unwillingly, further into a conflict." |
| The former defence secretary Lord King said it was imperative to find a solution "and it mustn't be military". | The former defence secretary Lord King said it was imperative to find a solution "and it mustn't be military". |
| "This is turning into such a conflagration that it is becoming extremely dangerous," he said. "I am appalled by the idea that the regime, if that is the case as it appears, would use chemicals against its own people. But the difficulties in how we respond do not become any easier." | "This is turning into such a conflagration that it is becoming extremely dangerous," he said. "I am appalled by the idea that the regime, if that is the case as it appears, would use chemicals against its own people. But the difficulties in how we respond do not become any easier." |
| Richards has previously voiced fears that pin-prick strikes could aggravate rather than resolve the situation in the country and that the extent of an effective campaign to rescue Syria is beyond Britain. | Richards has previously voiced fears that pin-prick strikes could aggravate rather than resolve the situation in the country and that the extent of an effective campaign to rescue Syria is beyond Britain. |
| "I think the scale of involvement to make a decisive difference in Syria would be so huge that it is something that we at the moment cannot safely contemplate," the Sun reported him saying in an interview he is understood to have given several weeks ago. | "I think the scale of involvement to make a decisive difference in Syria would be so huge that it is something that we at the moment cannot safely contemplate," the Sun reported him saying in an interview he is understood to have given several weeks ago. |
| The anxieties about worsening the situation do not wash with those who insist that Assad's use of sarin gas cannot go unpunished. To avoid action would weaken the international community's future power of deterrent against the use of weapons of mass destruction more widely, they say. Leading voices in America are arguing strongly that there must be "punitive" attacks, the intent of which is simply to punish Assad and send a message to the world. | The anxieties about worsening the situation do not wash with those who insist that Assad's use of sarin gas cannot go unpunished. To avoid action would weaken the international community's future power of deterrent against the use of weapons of mass destruction more widely, they say. Leading voices in America are arguing strongly that there must be "punitive" attacks, the intent of which is simply to punish Assad and send a message to the world. |
| "I think the US should do something that is both meaningful and visible," said Richard Haass, president of the Washington-based Council of Foreign Relations. "I would be in favour of a fairly heavy use of cruise missiles against targets … Any strike has to be large enough to inflict enough pain and cost on Syrians so they would be discouraged from resorting to chemical weapons again. I also think this is about a lot more than Syria, so any strike should also be sufficiently large that it would underscore the message that chemical weapons as a weapon of mass destruction cannot be used with impunity and that these can in no way enter the space of normal weaponry. The audience is not just the Syrian government but any would-be user of chemical, biological or nuclear materials to underscore the fact that any potential use of these would bring tremendous pain upon the party responsible." | "I think the US should do something that is both meaningful and visible," said Richard Haass, president of the Washington-based Council of Foreign Relations. "I would be in favour of a fairly heavy use of cruise missiles against targets … Any strike has to be large enough to inflict enough pain and cost on Syrians so they would be discouraged from resorting to chemical weapons again. I also think this is about a lot more than Syria, so any strike should also be sufficiently large that it would underscore the message that chemical weapons as a weapon of mass destruction cannot be used with impunity and that these can in no way enter the space of normal weaponry. The audience is not just the Syrian government but any would-be user of chemical, biological or nuclear materials to underscore the fact that any potential use of these would bring tremendous pain upon the party responsible." |
| In the UK, Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, former deputy chief of the defence staff, and Colonel Richard Kemp, former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, backed strikes on a similar basis. Blackham said: "The idea of a punishment strike is not at all unreasonable: how else is international law to be upheld?" Kemp argued: "A limited but devastating surgical air strike is not only justified but necessary in order to send a clear message to Assad." | In the UK, Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, former deputy chief of the defence staff, and Colonel Richard Kemp, former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, backed strikes on a similar basis. Blackham said: "The idea of a punishment strike is not at all unreasonable: how else is international law to be upheld?" Kemp argued: "A limited but devastating surgical air strike is not only justified but necessary in order to send a clear message to Assad." |
| Tony Blair, who took Britain to war in Iraq in 2003, advanced a wider motive than punishment and has outlined an us-versus-them vision in which he said the west should hit back to show it was taking sides with those in Syria who valued western societies. | Tony Blair, who took Britain to war in Iraq in 2003, advanced a wider motive than punishment and has outlined an us-versus-them vision in which he said the west should hit back to show it was taking sides with those in Syria who valued western societies. |
| "We have to collectively understand the consequences of wringing our hands instead of putting them to work," he wrote in the Times, outlining a vision of the region if the west does not attack. "Syria mired in carnage between the brutality of Assad and the various affiliates of al-Qaida, a breeding ground of extremism infinitely more dangerous than Afghanistan in the 1990s … Leave aside any moral judgment and think of our interests for a moment. Syria disintegrated, divided in blood, the nations around it destabilised, waves of terror rolling over the population of the region; Assad in power in the richest part of the country. Iran, with Russia's support, ascendant; a bitter sectarian fury running the Syrian eastern hinterland – and us apparently impotent … It is time we took a side: the side of the people who want what we want; who see our societies for all their faults as something to admire." | "We have to collectively understand the consequences of wringing our hands instead of putting them to work," he wrote in the Times, outlining a vision of the region if the west does not attack. "Syria mired in carnage between the brutality of Assad and the various affiliates of al-Qaida, a breeding ground of extremism infinitely more dangerous than Afghanistan in the 1990s … Leave aside any moral judgment and think of our interests for a moment. Syria disintegrated, divided in blood, the nations around it destabilised, waves of terror rolling over the population of the region; Assad in power in the richest part of the country. Iran, with Russia's support, ascendant; a bitter sectarian fury running the Syrian eastern hinterland – and us apparently impotent … It is time we took a side: the side of the people who want what we want; who see our societies for all their faults as something to admire." |
| Max Hastings, the military historian and journalist, gave a directly opposing analysis, saying Syria was "a hideously intractable situation in which we meddle at our peril" and it was "impossible to foresee a happy ending" in any intervention. | Max Hastings, the military historian and journalist, gave a directly opposing analysis, saying Syria was "a hideously intractable situation in which we meddle at our peril" and it was "impossible to foresee a happy ending" in any intervention. |
| "Downing Street has not, however, indicated what the purpose or expectations of such strikes should be, save to give President Assad a severe whacking," he said in a Daily Mail column. | "Downing Street has not, however, indicated what the purpose or expectations of such strikes should be, save to give President Assad a severe whacking," he said in a Daily Mail column. |
| He said Cameron and his advisers had been fuming for over a year "about what they see as an inescapable moral issue: how can civilised nations stand idly by, they demand, and watch Assad massacre his own people?" But he said Syria was "a colossal mess in which there is little to choose for nastiness between the competing factions" and there was little sense of how an intervention could be definitive without a showdown with Syria's supporter, Russia. | He said Cameron and his advisers had been fuming for over a year "about what they see as an inescapable moral issue: how can civilised nations stand idly by, they demand, and watch Assad massacre his own people?" But he said Syria was "a colossal mess in which there is little to choose for nastiness between the competing factions" and there was little sense of how an intervention could be definitive without a showdown with Syria's supporter, Russia. |
| One of the best informed opinions came from Chris Harmer, a senior naval analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington who last month produced a report showing how the US could degrade key Syrian military installations on the cheap with virtually no risk to US personnel. Perhaps surprisingly, he thinks an attack is a bad idea. | One of the best informed opinions came from Chris Harmer, a senior naval analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington who last month produced a report showing how the US could degrade key Syrian military installations on the cheap with virtually no risk to US personnel. Perhaps surprisingly, he thinks an attack is a bad idea. |
| "Any ship officer can launch 30 or 40 Tomahawks," he told the Foreign Policy website. "It's not difficult. The difficulty is explaining to strategic planners how this advances US interests … Punitive action is the dumbest of all actions. The Assad regime has shown an incredible capacity to endure pain and I don't think we have the stomach to deploy enough punitive action that would serve as a deterrent." | "Any ship officer can launch 30 or 40 Tomahawks," he told the Foreign Policy website. "It's not difficult. The difficulty is explaining to strategic planners how this advances US interests … Punitive action is the dumbest of all actions. The Assad regime has shown an incredible capacity to endure pain and I don't think we have the stomach to deploy enough punitive action that would serve as a deterrent." |
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