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Syria air strikes could begin within days Syria air strikes could begin within days
(25 days later)
The first sign that a US-led attack on Syria is imminent may be the sight of weapons inspectors and other UN staff packing their bags and leaving Damascus.The first sign that a US-led attack on Syria is imminent may be the sight of weapons inspectors and other UN staff packing their bags and leaving Damascus.
In the years before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, weapons inspectors looking for Saddam Hussein's alleged WMD stockpiles were usually tipped off about impending air strikes by a timely telephone call from a western official suggesting it would be a good time to leave the country. Their successors in Syria will be hoping to get a few hours notice so they are not the target of a backlash in Damascus for a military action in which they have no role.In the years before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, weapons inspectors looking for Saddam Hussein's alleged WMD stockpiles were usually tipped off about impending air strikes by a timely telephone call from a western official suggesting it would be a good time to leave the country. Their successors in Syria will be hoping to get a few hours notice so they are not the target of a backlash in Damascus for a military action in which they have no role.
US and British officials have made it clear in recent days that they will be bound by neither the timing nor the finding of the present UN inspection mission looking for evidence of chemical weapons. Washington has said that air strikes are imminent and are only likely to be held back by the need to wait for a vote in the UK's hastily-recalled parliament. After that vote is completed on Thursday night, the missiles could be launched at any time.US and British officials have made it clear in recent days that they will be bound by neither the timing nor the finding of the present UN inspection mission looking for evidence of chemical weapons. Washington has said that air strikes are imminent and are only likely to be held back by the need to wait for a vote in the UK's hastily-recalled parliament. After that vote is completed on Thursday night, the missiles could be launched at any time.
In the meantime the Obama administration has said it will publish some of its evidence of the Assad regime's responsibility for the apparent gas attack on Ghouta in eastern Damascus.In the meantime the Obama administration has said it will publish some of its evidence of the Assad regime's responsibility for the apparent gas attack on Ghouta in eastern Damascus.
Evidence is likely to include signals intelligence, possibly intercepts of Syrian commanders' radio and telephone calls. UK officials hope publication of the intelligence will come in time to help frame the parliamentary debate.Evidence is likely to include signals intelligence, possibly intercepts of Syrian commanders' radio and telephone calls. UK officials hope publication of the intelligence will come in time to help frame the parliamentary debate.
As presidential systems, the US and French governments do not have the same obligation to go to their legislatures to seek approval to act, though the Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives, John Boehner, has said he expects Congress to be consulted before action is taken.As presidential systems, the US and French governments do not have the same obligation to go to their legislatures to seek approval to act, though the Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives, John Boehner, has said he expects Congress to be consulted before action is taken.
Even if Barack Obama takes that advice, the consultation could be limited to senior senators and would be unlikely to hold up preparations.Even if Barack Obama takes that advice, the consultation could be limited to senior senators and would be unlikely to hold up preparations.
In France, President François Hollande is due to summon a meeting of his security council on Wednesday. The National Assembly will be informed but not consulted.In France, President François Hollande is due to summon a meeting of his security council on Wednesday. The National Assembly will be informed but not consulted.
US and British officials are arguing that there is no need to go to the UN security council, even to show willing to go the extra diplomatic mile. They say that the depth of Russian and Chinese commitment to the Assad regime makes such a gesture pointless.US and British officials are arguing that there is no need to go to the UN security council, even to show willing to go the extra diplomatic mile. They say that the depth of Russian and Chinese commitment to the Assad regime makes such a gesture pointless.
"I don't think there is great deal of hope that new evidence is going to change minds that are made up," one western diplomat said."I don't think there is great deal of hope that new evidence is going to change minds that are made up," one western diplomat said.
By playing down the significance of the current UN inspection team in Damascus, the western allies have sought to free themselves from its timetable, which involves another six days of visits, possibly more, and then time for laboratory analysis of samples.By playing down the significance of the current UN inspection team in Damascus, the western allies have sought to free themselves from its timetable, which involves another six days of visits, possibly more, and then time for laboratory analysis of samples.
Under its agreement with Damascus, the dozen UN inspectors and about eight support staff have 14 days to investigate three earlier sites of possible chemical weapon use.Under its agreement with Damascus, the dozen UN inspectors and about eight support staff have 14 days to investigate three earlier sites of possible chemical weapon use.
That clock started ticking on their arrival on August 19 and so has six days to go. The UN team, however, led by the Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom and the UN's high representative for disarmament affairs, Angela Kane, is committed to visiting the original three sites after it has finished in Ghouta.That clock started ticking on their arrival on August 19 and so has six days to go. The UN team, however, led by the Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom and the UN's high representative for disarmament affairs, Angela Kane, is committed to visiting the original three sites after it has finished in Ghouta.
Under the deal with the Assad regime, the inspectors could ask for an extension, which would take their investigation well into September.Under the deal with the Assad regime, the inspectors could ask for an extension, which would take their investigation well into September.
Even after it completes its analysis, the UN team is prevented by its mandate from assigning direct responsibility for the gas attacks. It is only able to confirm that chemical agents were used.Even after it completes its analysis, the UN team is prevented by its mandate from assigning direct responsibility for the gas attacks. It is only able to confirm that chemical agents were used.
That is already obvious, western officials argue, so waiting for the UN report would gain nothing. The UN, however, has said that the inspectors will produce an evidence-based narrative of the alleged chemical attacks to date, which could be heavily suggestive even if not a direct indictment. Some in Whitehall believe that would be worth waiting for to bolster the case for action in the arena of world option.That is already obvious, western officials argue, so waiting for the UN report would gain nothing. The UN, however, has said that the inspectors will produce an evidence-based narrative of the alleged chemical attacks to date, which could be heavily suggestive even if not a direct indictment. Some in Whitehall believe that would be worth waiting for to bolster the case for action in the arena of world option.
The business of building a "coalition of the willing" in Nato and in the region will also take a bit of time. Turkey has already declared itself on board for punitive measures and has defensive precautions in place in the form of six Patriot anti-missile batteries from the US, Germany and the Netherlands which have been in position since February. Israel, which is being urged to stay out of the fight by Washington, has its own anti-missile shield.The business of building a "coalition of the willing" in Nato and in the region will also take a bit of time. Turkey has already declared itself on board for punitive measures and has defensive precautions in place in the form of six Patriot anti-missile batteries from the US, Germany and the Netherlands which have been in position since February. Israel, which is being urged to stay out of the fight by Washington, has its own anti-missile shield.
Jordan, which could also expect to bear the brunt of Syrian reprisals if it provides a staging ground for military action, is not so well prepared. The decision by the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Martin Dempsey, to host an emergency meeting in Amman this week with his European, Canadian, Turkish and Arab counterparts, appears designed to reassure the Jordanians that they will be protected against a backlash.Jordan, which could also expect to bear the brunt of Syrian reprisals if it provides a staging ground for military action, is not so well prepared. The decision by the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Martin Dempsey, to host an emergency meeting in Amman this week with his European, Canadian, Turkish and Arab counterparts, appears designed to reassure the Jordanians that they will be protected against a backlash.
The involvement of regional allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan is more important politically than militarily. In the absence of a UN security council resolution, the Obama administration is seeking to secure as wide a consensus as possible to minimise the diplomatic fallout.The involvement of regional allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan is more important politically than militarily. In the absence of a UN security council resolution, the Obama administration is seeking to secure as wide a consensus as possible to minimise the diplomatic fallout.
Washington's presentation of its evidence is likely to be a critical factor in the speed with which such a coalition can be assembled. Beyond that, the only formal hurdle that has to be crossed is the parliamentary vote in London.Washington's presentation of its evidence is likely to be a critical factor in the speed with which such a coalition can be assembled. Beyond that, the only formal hurdle that has to be crossed is the parliamentary vote in London.
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