This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2013/aug/29/syria-dilemma-sarajevo-strategy
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| The Syria dilemma: we don't want it turning into another Sarajevo 1914 | The Syria dilemma: we don't want it turning into another Sarajevo 1914 |
| (21 days later) | |
| In an era of over-mighty governments and all-too-compliant legislatures it is always a good thing when parliament forces the government of the day to rethink its policy, even when the parliamentarians may be wrong. In the case of David Cameron's wish to rush into joining the US in punitive bombing of Bashar-al-Assad's military infrastructure, wary MPs are more right than wrong. | In an era of over-mighty governments and all-too-compliant legislatures it is always a good thing when parliament forces the government of the day to rethink its policy, even when the parliamentarians may be wrong. In the case of David Cameron's wish to rush into joining the US in punitive bombing of Bashar-al-Assad's military infrastructure, wary MPs are more right than wrong. |
| So well done Ed Miliband for forcing a pause in the gathering momentum for UK involvement in US intervention in yet another Arab state, barely10 years after British MPs voted to sanction an invasion of Iraq – also provoked by fears of WMD – which was clumsily conceived and horribly mismanaged. That failure casts a long shadow over the current debate. | So well done Ed Miliband for forcing a pause in the gathering momentum for UK involvement in US intervention in yet another Arab state, barely10 years after British MPs voted to sanction an invasion of Iraq – also provoked by fears of WMD – which was clumsily conceived and horribly mismanaged. That failure casts a long shadow over the current debate. |
| That Cameron has, again, been seen to have lost control of the Commons, where unreliable coalition MPs – including Ukip-influenced Tories and squeamish Lib Dems – make him dependent on Labour votes for a majority, may be a domestic bonus for Miliband, but probably not. Voters do not much like the coalition, they voted for one but do not acknowledge paternity, and should be pleased at the parliamentary triangulation of the past 24 hours. | That Cameron has, again, been seen to have lost control of the Commons, where unreliable coalition MPs – including Ukip-influenced Tories and squeamish Lib Dems – make him dependent on Labour votes for a majority, may be a domestic bonus for Miliband, but probably not. Voters do not much like the coalition, they voted for one but do not acknowledge paternity, and should be pleased at the parliamentary triangulation of the past 24 hours. |
| Chances are they won't be. Depending on what happens next, voters will do what they usually do and decide to blame someone else. The pre-war appeasement policies towards Hitler, followed by Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain were highly popular at the time, and the bellicose Churchill unpopular. When the policies failed voters blamed their leaders, not themselves. That could be Miliband's fate. "He was weak," they'll tell each other. | Chances are they won't be. Depending on what happens next, voters will do what they usually do and decide to blame someone else. The pre-war appeasement policies towards Hitler, followed by Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain were highly popular at the time, and the bellicose Churchill unpopular. When the policies failed voters blamed their leaders, not themselves. That could be Miliband's fate. "He was weak," they'll tell each other. |
| The political and diplomatic fallout from the Syrian chemical weapons atrocity will rumble on, whatever happens – or doesn't – in the next few days, with little or no certainty of outcome. Non-intervention is not a cost-free policy either, as survivors of decades of civil conflict in Congo and its neighbours will readily confirm. As with North Korea's systemic abuses of its citizens, it is just "too difficult" to do much about it. | The political and diplomatic fallout from the Syrian chemical weapons atrocity will rumble on, whatever happens – or doesn't – in the next few days, with little or no certainty of outcome. Non-intervention is not a cost-free policy either, as survivors of decades of civil conflict in Congo and its neighbours will readily confirm. As with North Korea's systemic abuses of its citizens, it is just "too difficult" to do much about it. |
| Those indulging in hand-wringing disdain against the "warmongers" on Twitter and in the letters columns should bear that in mind. Their fear of war and its unpredictable consequences – one Arab friend of mine thinks we are in danger of repeating the drift to global war that occurred in August 1914 – is more wholesome than the criticisms of the knee-jerk Russian, Chinese and Islamist anti-American crowd. | Those indulging in hand-wringing disdain against the "warmongers" on Twitter and in the letters columns should bear that in mind. Their fear of war and its unpredictable consequences – one Arab friend of mine thinks we are in danger of repeating the drift to global war that occurred in August 1914 – is more wholesome than the criticisms of the knee-jerk Russian, Chinese and Islamist anti-American crowd. |
| Like Russians and Chinese diplomats at the UN security council the latter will play for time, hoping something will turn up that avoids hard choices. The US rush towards a military gesture (cruise missiles aimed at Syrian defence infrastructure from warships?) reflects the opposite calculation by an action-averse and cautious president: let's do something modest to show our displeasure, but let's do it quickly before more goes wrong or the even-more-lethargic UN blocks us. | Like Russians and Chinese diplomats at the UN security council the latter will play for time, hoping something will turn up that avoids hard choices. The US rush towards a military gesture (cruise missiles aimed at Syrian defence infrastructure from warships?) reflects the opposite calculation by an action-averse and cautious president: let's do something modest to show our displeasure, but let's do it quickly before more goes wrong or the even-more-lethargic UN blocks us. |
| The Pentagon and rows of retired generals on both sides of the Atlantic line up to tell them not to do anything, as (contrary to popular belief) generals do more often than not. They know that war usually goes wrong and that, since the dawn of aviation, aerial bombardment has rarely, if ever, delivered the decisive result that had been promised by strategists. It didn't defeat us in 1940-41 and it didn't defeat the Germans when our turn came to bomb them. | The Pentagon and rows of retired generals on both sides of the Atlantic line up to tell them not to do anything, as (contrary to popular belief) generals do more often than not. They know that war usually goes wrong and that, since the dawn of aviation, aerial bombardment has rarely, if ever, delivered the decisive result that had been promised by strategists. It didn't defeat us in 1940-41 and it didn't defeat the Germans when our turn came to bomb them. |
| In any case there is a powerful, Iraq-driven argument for waiting until the UN weapons inspectors have made their findings next week, not a finding of guilt – blame is outside their remit – but of evidence. What happened in the Damascus suburbs last week and how? Though Whitehall and Washington now seem to have concluded that the Assad regime did the deed, by accident or design, sensible people have remained cautious. The old Roman questionof "who benefits?" is always useful. Certainly not Assad. | In any case there is a powerful, Iraq-driven argument for waiting until the UN weapons inspectors have made their findings next week, not a finding of guilt – blame is outside their remit – but of evidence. What happened in the Damascus suburbs last week and how? Though Whitehall and Washington now seem to have concluded that the Assad regime did the deed, by accident or design, sensible people have remained cautious. The old Roman questionof "who benefits?" is always useful. Certainly not Assad. |
| It is especially important to be cautious at a time of deep change in the international order. What Britain does matters little in military terms, as the armchair peaceniks at home rightly point out, even if many foreigners still flatter our strength and cunning. But Cameron clearly agrees with Tony Blair's judgement in 2003 that the US, which protects us, is a safer power when not acting unilaterally. The EU majority disagreed, but the EU is even weaker 10 years on. | It is especially important to be cautious at a time of deep change in the international order. What Britain does matters little in military terms, as the armchair peaceniks at home rightly point out, even if many foreigners still flatter our strength and cunning. But Cameron clearly agrees with Tony Blair's judgement in 2003 that the US, which protects us, is a safer power when not acting unilaterally. The EU majority disagreed, but the EU is even weaker 10 years on. |
| In the decade since Iraq the US, too, has shown far greater weakness than strength, its once-admired banking system allowed to run riot and seriously damage the world economy, its humbled armed forces in retreat from Afghanistan as well as Iraq. Vladimir Putin's highly-nationalist Russia is also weak but in mischief-making mood to cover that weakness. Iran has a new uncertain leadership, Egypt is again under rule by soldiers, Turkey has a messianic leader. | In the decade since Iraq the US, too, has shown far greater weakness than strength, its once-admired banking system allowed to run riot and seriously damage the world economy, its humbled armed forces in retreat from Afghanistan as well as Iraq. Vladimir Putin's highly-nationalist Russia is also weak but in mischief-making mood to cover that weakness. Iran has a new uncertain leadership, Egypt is again under rule by soldiers, Turkey has a messianic leader. |
| Much more to the point, China's resumed strength is much more visible, on track eventually to resume its lost place as No 1 nation. Nationalist feeling, currently directed against Japan (though that could easily change) is running strong in China as Beijing builds military strength and picks easy regional fights – while recent exponential economic growth falters and the communist party struggles to retain control. | Much more to the point, China's resumed strength is much more visible, on track eventually to resume its lost place as No 1 nation. Nationalist feeling, currently directed against Japan (though that could easily change) is running strong in China as Beijing builds military strength and picks easy regional fights – while recent exponential economic growth falters and the communist party struggles to retain control. |
| I gasped when my Arab friend likened the Levantine politics of the Levant – from Turkey to the Egyptian border – to the febrile tinderbox that was the Balkans before the assassination at Sarajevo in 1914. Rising powers and declining powers in uneasy strategic competition mixed high policy with low calculations based on where imperial Russian railway construction or Austrian military planning might be in five years time. Everyone made mistakes – even Whitehall's well-meaning peaceful Liberal government – and millions died. | I gasped when my Arab friend likened the Levantine politics of the Levant – from Turkey to the Egyptian border – to the febrile tinderbox that was the Balkans before the assassination at Sarajevo in 1914. Rising powers and declining powers in uneasy strategic competition mixed high policy with low calculations based on where imperial Russian railway construction or Austrian military planning might be in five years time. Everyone made mistakes – even Whitehall's well-meaning peaceful Liberal government – and millions died. |
| Dangerous times and they require caution and hard thinking. Plenty of time to ponder this weekend, Mr Cameron. | Dangerous times and they require caution and hard thinking. Plenty of time to ponder this weekend, Mr Cameron. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. |