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Majority of a million swing voters are younger men, poll finds | Majority of a million swing voters are younger men, poll finds |
(21 days later) | |
A nationwide Guardian-Lonergan poll identifies the almost 1 million people intending to switch their vote from Labor to the Coalition on 7 September as "Abbott agnostics" – more likely to be younger men who say they are choosing the "least bad" option. | A nationwide Guardian-Lonergan poll identifies the almost 1 million people intending to switch their vote from Labor to the Coalition on 7 September as "Abbott agnostics" – more likely to be younger men who say they are choosing the "least bad" option. |
The poll found the Coalition attracting 53.6% of the two-party preferred vote and Labor 46.4%, in line with aggregates of other nationwide polling. | The poll found the Coalition attracting 53.6% of the two-party preferred vote and Labor 46.4%, in line with aggregates of other nationwide polling. |
But it also sought to identify some characteristics of the 950,000 or so people saying they intend to change their vote from Labor in 2010 to the Coalition in 2013. | But it also sought to identify some characteristics of the 950,000 or so people saying they intend to change their vote from Labor in 2010 to the Coalition in 2013. |
The analysis shows that these vote changers are more likely to be male (56%) than the average Coalition voter (53%). They are also more likely to be aged 25-34 (31%) compared with the average Coalition voter (15%) and live in New South Wales (41%) than on average for the Coalition vote (34%). | The analysis shows that these vote changers are more likely to be male (56%) than the average Coalition voter (53%). They are also more likely to be aged 25-34 (31%) compared with the average Coalition voter (15%) and live in New South Wales (41%) than on average for the Coalition vote (34%). |
Fitting the general perception of swinging voters as being politically disengaged, they are also more likely than the average Coalition voter to be disaffected with politics. | Fitting the general perception of swinging voters as being politically disengaged, they are also more likely than the average Coalition voter to be disaffected with politics. |
Of those who have shifted to the Coalition since 2010, 39% agree with the statement "I don't like any party. I am voting for the best of a bad lot", well above the level of agreement among all those who intend to vote for the Coalition (29%). Only 37% say they follow politics closely, compared with 44% of Labor voters and 46% of all Coalition voters. And 14% say they wouldn't vote at all if they didn't have to, compared with 11% of Labor voters and 7% of all Coalition voters. | Of those who have shifted to the Coalition since 2010, 39% agree with the statement "I don't like any party. I am voting for the best of a bad lot", well above the level of agreement among all those who intend to vote for the Coalition (29%). Only 37% say they follow politics closely, compared with 44% of Labor voters and 46% of all Coalition voters. And 14% say they wouldn't vote at all if they didn't have to, compared with 11% of Labor voters and 7% of all Coalition voters. |
But those sticking with the ALP are revealed to be in some respects even more disaffected than the election-deciding group who have shifted to the Coalition – with 49% saying they were voting for the best of a bad lot. | But those sticking with the ALP are revealed to be in some respects even more disaffected than the election-deciding group who have shifted to the Coalition – with 49% saying they were voting for the best of a bad lot. |
As Kevin Rudd prepares to defend Labor's record in government and present the ALP as the best party to protect Australian jobs at his campaign launch in Brisbane on Sunday, 5% of the electorate remains genuinely undecided. | As Kevin Rudd prepares to defend Labor's record in government and present the ALP as the best party to protect Australian jobs at his campaign launch in Brisbane on Sunday, 5% of the electorate remains genuinely undecided. |
With just a week until polling day, the undecideds appear evenly split as to who would make the better prime minister (Rudd 49%, Abbott 51%), lean towards the Coalition on economic management (55% trust the Coalition most to manage the economy, 45% the ALP). Some 71% of the undecided voters are women. | With just a week until polling day, the undecideds appear evenly split as to who would make the better prime minister (Rudd 49%, Abbott 51%), lean towards the Coalition on economic management (55% trust the Coalition most to manage the economy, 45% the ALP). Some 71% of the undecided voters are women. |
They are less negative about the performance of Labor than voters as a whole. Some 54% say it has been good and 46% poor, compared with 41% of all voters who say Labor has performed well and 59% who say it has performed poorly. And the undecideds are also politically disengaged. Only 11% follow politics closely, compared with the national average of 45%, and 83% agree with the statement: "I don't like any party. I am voting for the best of a bad lot." | They are less negative about the performance of Labor than voters as a whole. Some 54% say it has been good and 46% poor, compared with 41% of all voters who say Labor has performed well and 59% who say it has performed poorly. And the undecideds are also politically disengaged. Only 11% follow politics closely, compared with the national average of 45%, and 83% agree with the statement: "I don't like any party. I am voting for the best of a bad lot." |
Rudd is expected to use his campaign launch speech to remind voters of Labor's achievements in health, school funding, the national disability scheme and the national broadband network. | Rudd is expected to use his campaign launch speech to remind voters of Labor's achievements in health, school funding, the national disability scheme and the national broadband network. |
The Coalition enters the final week of the campaign without having released its policy costings, but promising no overall cuts to health or education. | The Coalition enters the final week of the campaign without having released its policy costings, but promising no overall cuts to health or education. |
The voice-automated survey of 828 voters on 29 August found Labor's primary vote on 35%, the Coalition's on 47% and the Greens' on 11%. | The voice-automated survey of 828 voters on 29 August found Labor's primary vote on 35%, the Coalition's on 47% and the Greens' on 11%. |
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